Mitch Garver Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

While St Louis is not a positive run environment and the Twins appear to be dismantling their team, this may still be one of the more interesting offensive spots on the board, despite Minnesota being implied for just 4.25 runs. The primary reason for this being St Louis pitching. Although Wade LeBlanc has just a 3.27 ERA over five starts, he has struck out just 14 of 102 batters with estimators above five. The low ERA is the result of an 88.4 LOB%. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him. LeBlanc also generally goes through the lineup twice and then exits. This too, is problematic for the Cardinals because they are the only team in baseball whose bullpen exceeds a five ERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA over the last 30 days. It could be batting practice for Minnesota bats all night long. The only question is, who will be left after the trade deadline? Josh Donaldson (147 wRC+, .241 ISO vs LHP in 2021) is one of those rumored to be on the block, but should he remain, he and Mitch Garver (108 wRC+, .328 ISO) would be the top bats here, the latter also a top value on FanDuel for just $2.7K. Jorge Polanco (104 wRC+, .204 ISO) should be another key piece for stacks, while Brent Rooker (236 wRC+ last 30 days) provides more salary relief and has been batting in the top half of the lineup against LHP recently.

Brett Anderson continues to generate lots of ground balls (68.4%) with few strikeouts (16.7%). His exit velocity has been between 88.8 and 89.6 each of the last four seasons. A 4.91 ERA sits well above a 4.02 SIERA (.333 BABIP, 33.3 HR/FB), but well below a 6.17 xERA. Somehow, 50% of his contact has been above a 95 mph exit velocity despite the 88.9 mph average. On the other side of this matchup, Mitch Garver has given players no reason to trust him this year (35 wRC+) and that’s the reason his price remains so low. However, the fact remains that he owns a .427 wOBA and .341 ISO against LHP since last season, while RHBs have a .332 wOBA against Anderson over the same span. Additionally, rostering Garver at $2.5K on FanDuel, creates an easier path to stacking him up with Nelson Cruz (.500 wOBA, .504 ISO vs LHP since 2019) right behind him for $4.2K more.

Kris Bubic had never pitched above A ball until just a few weeks ago. Considering, he’s acquitted himself fairly competently (17.7 K-BB%, 3.72 SIERA, 4.03 DRA, 60 GB%, .302 xwOBA, 84.1 mph aEV). His ERA is above five due to a 63.3 LOB% and three of his 12 fly balls leaving the yard, but his actual wOBA is 36 points above what Statcast projects, which may mean he’s run into a little bit of bad luck, allowing more HRs than Barrels. The Twins have certainly not lived up to their potential against LHP this year in a small sample (85 wRC+, 8.8 HR/FB), but haven’t struck out much either (19.4%). While Bubic has shown a reverse split so far, RHBs have a .305 wOBA against him. Mitch Garver in the two hole tonight means potentially great value on FanDuel. He costs just $2.5K and has a .430 wOBA with a .346 ISO against southpaws since last season.

Eric Lauer struck out six of 10 Cubs in a relief outing, but just two or 18 Reds in his first start with the accompanying drop in velocity and 7.1 SwStr%. He’s a perfectly average pitcher with a career 12.3 K-BB% and 4.51 ERA with matching estimators. The problem is, the Twins eat perfectly average southpaws for lunch. The biggest gift FanDuel players will find on this slate is Mitch Garver (193 wRC+, .383 ISO vs LHP since last season) in the leadoff spot for $2.3K. While Lauer actually has a bit of a reverse split since 2019, RHBs have still handled him decently (.305 wOBA, .313 xwOBA) and there’s a ton of value in a cheap lefty mashing catcher atop the lineup.

Derek Holland is a pitcher to attack on Monday night. He was effective in his first start against the Brewers, striking out five of 21 batters, allowing two runs on just two hits, a home run and three walks. His 11.1 SwStr% was exactly the same as last year’s mark. Pittsburgh is a great park for him, as he generated just one-third of his contact on the ground and the Milwaukee lineup just doesn’t scream right-handed power this year. The Twins in Minnesota are an entirely different story, however. Hollland allowed 12.2% Barrels/BBE last year and a 91 mph aEV, leading to a .347 xwOBA. His xwOBA in his first game this year: .363. In addition, RHBs have a .400 wOBA/xwOBA against Holland since the start of last season and a .349 wOBA against him for his career. Somehow, Mitch Garver (199 wRC+, .400 ISO vs LHP since last season) is just $2.5K on FanDuel. Load up on Twins with a 5.8 implied run line tonight.

Temperatures are expected to be over 30 degrees cooler in New York than Atlanta today and while there appears to be a strong wind, it seems to be blowing across the field, according to weather edge. This still may be the game players want to target for offense tonight. Jose Berrios has both the second lowest strikeout rate (23.2%) and aEV (86.5 mph) on the board today. His 3.68 ERA and 3.85 FIP are quality marks as well, but his 4.44 DRA is actually worst on the board. And while it’s still a better than average mark, his .303 xwOBA is also just one of two above .300 today. In fact, batters from either side of the plate had a .303 xwOBA against him this year with an actual wOBA within three points. Though he seemed to straighten himself out in September (two runs or less in three of his last four starts), Berrios did allow at least three runs in each of his previous six starts. This Yankee lineup is completely stacked. Virtually anyone in it could bat third or eighth. Among those projected, only Didi Gregorius (83 wRC+, .187 ISO) was below a 118 wRC+ vs RHP this year and only Giancarlo Stanton (.156) and DJ LeMahieu (.166) along with Gregorius were below a .200 ISO against RHP this year.

James Paxton gets the ball for the Yankees to start this series. He had an amazing September (1.05 ERA, 2.20 FIP, .245 xwOBA, 30.6 K%), but he also left his last start of the season after a single inning due to glute tightness. He calls it a non-issue and could have amazing upside for just $6.9K in this spot, but the Twins had a 126 wRC+ vs LHP that’s the highest split on the board today. Paxton at less than 100% could be a problem here. The projected lineup for the Twins features four batters above a .400 wOBA and .300 ISO vs LHP this year, all with more than 120 PAs: Mitch Garver, Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano and C.J. Cron. Beware that the Yankees do have an abundance of quality right-handers they can bring out of the pen if need be here, but these Twins bats were also very strong against RHP as well.