Nate Karns Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Nate Karns will be the opener for the Orioles and figures to throw 1-2 innings. It seems that Jimmy Yacabonis (RHP) is the best bet for long relief duty out of the Orioles pen. Yacabonis was bad in 40 IP in the majors last year (5.22 xFIP, .340 xWOBA) and projects for a 5.36 ERA this year per Steamer. Even if Yacabonis doesn’t see action, there isn’t a good enough arm in the Orioles pen to shut down this Yankees lineup. The Yankees have a 5.79 implied line and a lineup full of viable options. Aaron Judge is always in play at home (196 career wRC+ at Yankee stadium) despite the high price tag. Brett Gardner is leading off and is a nice value at $4.3k on DK and just $2.9k on FD. Luke Voit had a .436 xWOBA last year and will bat 4th in the Yanks’ potent lineup. Gary Sanchez (batting 6th) is coming off a seemingly down 2018, but a .342 xWOBA last year vs. RHP suggests not to worry.

As the rest of the country heats up, Detroit and MInnesota are left behind in a chill. Temperatures in both parks are expected to remain the mid-50's throughout the games, but the game between Royals and Twins adds an additional element with a bit of a breeze blowing in from CF at 10 mph. It's not a massive game changer and probably not enough to keep Miguel Sano in the park if he gets a hold of one, but could hinder the carry for two pitchers (Nate Karns and Hector Santiago) who have had issues with hard contact and HRs. The favorable conditions make Karns especially attractive with a career low walk rate (7.7%) and coming off 22 strikeouts (48 BF) over his last two starts.

On a particularly strong slate for pitching, there are three starters tonight with a strikeout rate in excess of 30% and the Daily K Predictor is optimistic about a few arms tonight with three arms (Chris Sale, Nate Karns, and Alex Wood) projected for seven strikeouts or more tonight. Curiously absent is one of those 30% arms in Jacob deGrom, likely because the Angels have had low strikeout rates in the past. However, they are a league average 20.4% vs RHP this year. The Predictor may be under-cutting deGrom, who has a SwStr above 13% in five of his last six starts. Chris Sale (38.8 K%, 16.1 SwStr%) has been the best (fantasy) pitcher in baseball this year, while some can make the argument that Alex Wood (33.1 K%, 12.1 SwStr%, 2.27 ERA, 2.47 SIERA) has been better than Kershaw. Nate Karns is second on the K Predictor (8.57) and has struck out 22 of his last 48 batters with the lowest walk rate of his career (7.7%), but continues to have HR issues and rarely pitches more than six innings. All pitchers mentioned are strong options tonight, though a few of them may need to be paired with a cheaper second pitcher on DraftKings. One thing to consider is that Lisalverto Bonilla has had a SwStr above 15% in each of his two starts and faces a Colorado offense with a 74 wRC+ at home, 71 wRC+ vs RHP and 61 wRC+ over the last week. Their K-BB in those situations (18.3%, 15.6%, and 19.7%).

Gary Sanchez and Brett Gardner are the only non-Coors bats that break into the 10 highest projected ownership rates among bats tonight, according to the Projected Ownership page. Players looking for potentially much less popular pivots, could consider middle of the order Baltimore bats, particularly Manny Machado (131 wRC+, .203 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Trey Mancini (128 wRC+, .294 ISO vs LHP career) against Gio Gonzalez (RHBs .321 wOBA since 2015). While the Orioles have struggled more than expected against LHPs as a team the last several years, there are couple of potent bats vs southpaws in tonight's lineup. Neither is projected to be in more than 10% of lineups on either site tonight. Jacob deGrom and Trevor Cahill should be the pitchers in the most lineups tonight. Nate Kans could comes close to matching them via strikeout rate (Rays 25.9 K% vs RHP). He is the cheapest of the three and projected to be in fewer than 10% of lineups on either site as well. Premium subscribers can find ownership rate projected for all players on our Projected Ownership page.

Trevor Cahill is on the verge of a breakout season. He's still allowing runs on occasion, but a 57.3 GB% and 29.8 K% (13.3 SwStr%) has made him a prominent DFS value nearly every start. He's struck out at least 24% of batters in each start and sits third on the RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor tonight with 6.47 projected, while he's one of the top projected values via RotoGrinders Player Projections on either site tonight. He still costs less than $8K on either site, facing a Texas offense at Petco that has a 23.4 K% vs RHP. Nathan Karns faces a potentially tougher offense (Rays 103 wRC+, 15.2 HR/FB vs RHP), but one that strikes out a lot as well (25.9% vs RHP). That gives him the top spot on the Daily K Predictor tonight (6.92) at a cost slightly below Cahill. After starting slow, 18 of his 26 strikeouts for the season have come in his last three starts. Jake Arrieta, although in Colorado tonight, sits second on the K Predictor (6.67). The Rockies have just a 75 wRC+ against RHP and he has a career high 21.8 K-BB%. Jacob deGrom is fourth (6.27), but has the top pitcher overall projection (RotoGrinders Player Projections) on either site. He just snapped a streak of three straight with at least 10 strikeouts and takes a 31.6 K% (15.7 SwStr%) in against the struggling Giants (68 wRC+, 5.9 HR/FB vs RHP).

The Rays visit the Royals tonight in a game that has a very modest 7.5 run total and while most DFS touts will be looking towards the Rays pitcher Blake Snell because of his upside, the better play of the two SPs from that game could very well be Royals pitcher Nathan Karns. The young right-hander struck out seven in his last outing against the White Sox and has struck out 18 over his last three starts. He has above-average stuff that misses bats but does have some limited upside as he doesn't top six innings or 100 pitches.

That said he gets to face a Tampa Bay team extremely vulnerable to the strikeout (25.9% K rate versus right-handed pitching) in a favorable park at Tampa. He's also had a massive increase in his ground ball rate (59%) which should help him against a Rays lineup that has a 15.2 HR/FB rate against RHP. At or around $7K on the two major sites, he'll likely be underowned and could provide great return on that modest price tag.

Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Jake Arrieta are all in a virtual tie atop the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight. The difference might be in the intricacies and early ownership projections see Carrasco as potentially being the least popular arm (less than 15% on either site), while the Phillies just posted a lineup minus several regulars, including Tommy Joseph and Michael Saunders. Potential value arms are projected to be fairly close on either site, with Drew Pomeranz (29.4 K%) vs the Orioles (80 wRC+, 27.2 K% vs LHP) for the third time already this year and Nathan Karns (below $7K on either site) vs the White Sox (71 wRC+, 25.3 K%) as top contenders.

There are three players with three HRs against the pitcher they are facing tonight. Mookie Betts has the most abundant recent information against Kevin Gausman. His three HRs are backed up by a mere 88.4 mph aEV on 17 BBE with no other extra-base hits. Aside from Gausman's reverse split tendencies, there may not be any added incentive to roster Betts at such a high price. Avisail Garcia has three HRs in just 11 PA against Nathan Karns, but just a 77.1 mph aEV on four recorded BBE. Nelson Cruz likes facing Ricky Nolasco and while a few of their 19 matchups may be out-dated, Nolasco also has a bit of a reverse split and Cruz has a 93.9 mph aEV on six Statcast recorded batted balls. There may be something to this one, despite the six strikeouts. Among batters with at least 10 BBE against tonight's starting pitcher, you're not going to find a lot of success either. We have to go all the way down to Mike Trout at 93.3 mph (15 BBE) to find our highest aEV. Hisashi Iwakuma has also struck him out 15 times in 58 PA with just a single HR as his only extra-base hit, but this is a pitcher with a great decline in skills over the last year or so.

While the Reds/Brewers game should be one targeted for offensive production on this small slate, this game is one where we will want to look to either Nathan Karns of the Royals or Jose Quintana of the White Sox as pitching options. The White Sox bring a dreadful lineup to the table and Karns has an above average K rate of nearly 25%. He is a definite GPP play as a result and is also viable as a SP2 in cash games. Quintana, on the other hand, is clearly the top arm on the slate as a sizable favorite facing one of the worst offenses in baseball this year in Kansas City. Whit Merrifield and Lorenzo Cain are the only bats worth a look from the Royals side with Jose Abreu the only viable bat from the woeful White Sox lineup.

Nate Karns doesn't have a problem missing bats (24.5 K%, 10.3 SwStr%), but does have issues finding the plate sometimes with his 10.8 BB% keeping him to five innings or less in five of his last six starts. It's difficult to pay more than $7K for a five inning pitcher unless the performance is expected to be elite while he's in there. RHBs (.321 wOBA, 35.6 Hard%) have hit him harder than LHBs (.299 wOBA, 30.6 Hard%) since last season, which plays right into Miguel Cabrera's hands (174 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP this season). He has a 208 wRC+ over the last week and is a reasonable $4.5K on DraftKings. The other bat players who are paying up for pitching might want to look at is Steven Moya, who is left-handed and bats 7th, but has a 119 wRC+ and .227 ISO vs RHP this season with a 191 wRC+ over the last week for less than $2.5K.