Nick Pivetta Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

A 12 game Tuesday night slate features a little bit of a lot of things. We have spot starters, pitchers who are not fully stretched out, weather concerns, hitter friendly weather and to top it all off, the only pitcher to exceed $10K on either site is…Nick Pivetta? This is not going to be easy, but let’s cover some high priced pitching anyway. Pivetta has 10 Quality Starts in his last 11 tries, allowing more than two runs in just one of them. He’s running a 24.2 K% and 17.6 K-BB% over this span, though with just a 9.1 SwStr% that bears watching, considering the retention of a 90.7 mph EV over this span. His 3.23 ERA is a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.68 FIP to a 4.24 xERA with just 10 of his 24 barrels (9.3%) leaving the yard. On the positive side, the Rays strike out a ton against RHP (25.1% with a 97 wRC+). Looking at the projected Tampa Bay lineup in PlateIQ, four of the first five have a sub-17.5 K% against RHP this year, but the remaining five exceed 26%. On the other hand, Fenway is a tough park to pitch in and weather conditions may make it even more difficult tonight. Pivetta is the third best projected pitcher on this board, but just a middle of the board projected value (although PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change). To see how the rest of tonight’s most expensive pitchers measure up, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The most positive run environment on the board may also get a weather boost on Thursday, which may particularly boost LH power at Fenway (wind blowing out to right at near 20 mph. A matchup between Justin Dunn and Nick Pivetta should also do nothing to dissuade daily fantasy players from loading up on bats in this game. Two discouraging factors are ownership with Boston bats as the only offense above five implied runs tonight and two of the top bullpens in the league so far, but it might not be a spot we’re comfortable fading. The Red Sox have a 126 wRC+ over the last week and 134 vs RHP (both slate highs) and Dunn has a 0.7 K-BB% with a 33.9 GB% through 62 major league innings. LHBs have a .356 wOBA and .410 xwOBA against him. The projected lineup for the Red Sox carries two strong LH bats in Alex Verdugo (123 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since 2019) and Rafael Devers (147 wRC+, .283 ISO). Both are above a 120 wRC+ overall this season and cost exactly $3.4K on FanDuel. Verdugo is over $1K cheaper and the better value on DraftKings.

The other side of this matchup is one of the more interesting ones on the board tonight. Nick Pivetta has walked 11 of the 65 batters he’s faced, while striking out 14 (11.2 SwStr%). He has just a 28.2 GB%. The Mariners haven’t been terrible vs RHP (100 wRC+), though they are one of the few high upside matchups on the board. Five of nine batters in the projected lineup are above a 26 K% vs RHP since 2019. While there’s only one batter in the projected lineup below a 94 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019, there’s also only two above 110. You need two pitchers on DraftKings and Pivetta ($7.5K) has some upside against this lineup. However, batters from both side of the plate are above a .350 against Pivetta since 2019. Jose Marmolejos (108 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is a bat we want to look at closely tonight. He costs $3.4K or less on either site and has an overall 144 wRC+ this year. Exposure to both sides of this matchup appears to be justifiable on this five game slate.

Teams are generally more cautious with starting pitchers in early April, but the much smaller workloads may increase that cautiousness, especially in terms of younger pitchers or for those teams who expect to contend for post-season positions. There are a lot of innings to cover and nobody threw more than 80 of them last year. We saw this play out over the weekend as teams had incredibly quick hooks and looking at today’s board, it could be a lot more of the same. In fact, with most teams towards the back of their rotations now, we’re likely to see a lot of bullpens today, something players need not only consider when selecting pitchers, but hitters as well. The Rays seem to be prone to piggybacking starters after Glasnow and Adrian Morejon didn’t exceed 11 batters in four starts last year. While they are most likely to pull their starters very early tonight, it’s really almost the entire slate we have to be concerned about in terms of workload. The Dodgers are famous for pitcher conservation and Dustin May is unlikely to break the mold in his first start. In fact, Jacob deGrom is likely to be the only pitcher we shouldn’t worry about and that still only probably means around six innings.

DeGrom is widely considered the best pitcher in baseball. He had a 32.1 K-BB% last year and did not allow more than three ERs in any of his 12 starts. His 2.38 ERA was within a half run of all of his estimators, the largest of which was a 2.74 xERA, which is still the top number on the board. The only concern we should have is the possible disruption of his routine this weekend. Of course, the issue is that deGrom costs nearly $4K more than any other pitcher on FanDuel and almost $2K more on DraftKings. Everyone is going to be on him and for good reason. He’s nearly impossible to completely fade tonight. Utilizing anyone else (and on DraftKings you have to) means you’re looking to catch lightening in a bottle for a few innings and Nick Pivetta may be your best bet for that. He could get completely torched by the Rays, but they also have some enormous projected strikeouts rates in that lineup, only two below 23%. Pivetta costs less than $7K on either site.

The game in Philadelphia will feature both the best (Kenta Maeda 84.8 mph aEV, 5.2% Barrels/BBE, .272 xwOBA) and worst (Nick Pivetta 89.2 mph aEV, 10.1% Barrels/BBE .369 xwOBA) contact managers on the board. While weather (both for delay potential and hitter friendly conditions) might dampen the prospects of Maeda without enormous upside (24.8 K%), the Dodgers are currently one of just three teams above six implied runs tonight (6.03). Loading up on elite lefty Dodger power bats is never a bad idea. It’s hard to argue Cody Bellinger (178 wRC+, .330 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Joc Pederson (131 wRC+, .302 ISO), Max Muncy (155 wRC+, .312 ISO) and Alex Verdugo (114 wRC+, .190 ISO) or Corey Seager (141 wRC+, .242 ISO) in the two spot aren’t among the top bats on the board tonight, but with winds blowing out towards center and Pivetta’s lack of a split over the last 12 months (LHBs .332 wOBA/.331 xwOBA, RHBs .355 wOBA/.326 xwOBA), Justin Turner (148 wRC+, .162 ISO) is looking nearly as strong in this spot. There’s also A.J. Pollock (92 wRC+, .177 ISO), who finally looks healthy with a 265 wRC+ and 58.3 Hard% since the break, both best among tonight’s projected lineup. In fact, the Dodgers’ team 140 wRC+ is third best in the majors since the break and second best on the slate, behind only the Angels (151). Pivetta has allowed multiple HRs in seven of his 12 starts this year.

Over his last three starts, all against NL East opponents, Nick Pivetta has allowed seven HRs with eight walks and just 11 strikeouts. The contact issues were tolerated when he was missing lots of bats, but now he owns a 19.4 K% on the season and over the last month. A .319 BABIP may seem a bit high until realizing his 27.3 LD% with an 89.2 mph aEV, to which he adds an 11.1% Barrels/BBE rate. As a result, his .377 xwOBA is highest on the board among those with more than one start, while he must face a proficient Braves’ lineup in the heat in Atlanta tonight. A 5.76 implied run rate is just fifth on this board. While RHBs actually own a higher wOBA against Pivetta over the last calendar year (.356 to .333), both drop to exactly .328 by xwOBA. The Braves send a lineup at him that includes Ronald Acuna (129 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Freddie Freeman (146 wRC+, .230 ISO), Josh Donaldson (122 wRC+, .224 ISO), and Austin Riley (103 wRC+, .246 ISO), all with significant power against RHP. In fact, Ozzie Albies (74 wRC+, .149 ISO) is the only batter in the front seven below either a 95 wRC+ or .150 ISO vs RHP over the last 12 months. The Braves have homered four times and scored eight runs in 11 innings against Pivetta this season and the onslaught seems more likely than not to continue tonight.

Conditions in Philadelphia call for an offensive bump (despite a pitcher friendly umpire) and Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta may be just the pitchers to provide some fireworks. Vargas has followed up a run of one run or less in six of seven outings with 10 runs (eight earned) over his last 14.2 innings (10 K, 7 BB, 2 HR) and the threat of physical violence against a reporter. With an 8.1 K-BB%, .266 BABIP, 9.7 HR/FB, 5.89 DRA and .322 xwOBA, regression was always coming for him. It was just a matter of how hard it was going to hit. To his credit, he owns a board low 86.2 mph aEV on the season and still has a .288 xwOBA over the last month. That’s where the temperature near 90 degrees comes in. It will likely carry those baseballs a bit further. Each of the first five in the projected Philadelphia batting order (Scott Kingery, Jean Segura, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto) are all above a 100 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year with the lefty, Harper, having the most success (146 wRC+, .270 ISO).

On the other end, Nick Pivetta has allowed five HRs over his last two starts and multiple HRs in five of his nine starts overall. A quarter of his fly balls have left the yard this year, which is the same percentage of his overall contact that have been line drives. So while his non-FIP estimators are closer to four and a half, his .372 xwOBA is just eight points away from his actual mark. He’s striking out fewer batters this year with 10.8% of his contact qualifying as Barrels. Batters from either side of the plate have exactly a .328 xwOBA against Pivetta over the last calendar year (with actual wOBAs a bit higher). Each of the first seven Mets in the projected order are above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP over the last 12 months with Pete Alonso (146 wRC+, .305 ISO), Michael Conforto (139 wRC+, .256 ISO), Todd Frazier (108 wRC+, .210 ISO) and Dominic Smith (124 wRC+, .228 ISO) flashing the most power. Robinson Cano (110 wRC+, .193 ISO) continues to be very cheap due to recent struggles.

There is some concern about conditions in Philadelphia, but barring a PPD, those conditions seem to be favorable for left-handed power hitters (winds out to RF at 10 mph). Adam Wainwright has walked nine of his last 46 batters, has just a 6.5 SwStr% and 90.3 Z-Contact% on the season and his ERA with all of his estimators are within a quarter run of five. He has a 17.4 HR/FB and LHBs have a .363 wOBA with a 39.8 Hard% against him over the last calendar year. Bryce Harper (122 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has gone cold again, but his 24 wRC+ over the last week comes with a 46.7 Hard%. Making hard contact is not a problem for him. Making contact is, but this could be a good matchup with him considering Wainwright’s inability to miss bats at this point in his career.

Nick Pivetta frustrated the Phillies enough to send him down after four starts (at least three runs in no more than five innings in all four) with just a 17.2 K%. He doubled that (33.1%) in six AAA starts (though he walked 13.3% too). Pivetta also allowed five HRs in those four starts and 54 in 315.1 big league innings in his career. His split numbers haven’t been very consistent, but over the last calendar year, LHBs have torched him for a .383 wOBA. Matt Carpenter (137 wRC+, .253 ISO) has a 221 wRC+ over the last week, as the Cardinals have dropped him in the order. Unfortunately, he’s the only LHB on the roster above a .165 wRC+ vs RHP over the last 12 months. Kolten Wong (115 wRC+, .164 ISO) is next best.

Despite a slight drop in their 5.83 implied run total over the course of the afternoon, the Rockies still tower above all other offenses on a slate where only four teams are even above 4.5 runs tonight. As pitcher with confusing BABIP struggles, Coors might not be the right fit for Nick Pivetta, who, like both previous Philadelphia pitchers in this series, has struggled with LHBs this season (.336 wOBA). The Rockies have been on a scoring spree so far this week, but the fact remains, that Charlie Blackmon (119 wRC+, .221 ISO) and David Dahl (123 wRC+, .267 ISO) have been the only well above average batters against RHP in this lineup. The environment makes Nolan Arenado (95 wRC+, .191 ISO), Trevor Story (101 wRC+, .222 ISO) and Carlos Gonzalez (102 wRC+, .194 ISO) all playable, but not necessarily the best values on the board.