Nick Markakis Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Wednesday’s MLB slate features two elimination games in the National League. This means that no starting pitcher is safe from the quick hook, although the Cardinals certainly have their best pitcher on the mound. Jack Flaherty struck out eight of the 29 Braves he faced, walking just one with a single HR and three earned runs despite keeping 60% of his contact on the ground. He ties for the slate lead with a 29.9 K% this year and his 2.75 ERA tops the board by more than a full half run, though his estimators are more in line with the two pitchers in Los Angeles tonight. Flaherty’s 80.6 Z-Contact% is best on the board by nearly four full points and his 86.1 mph aEV is best on the board by more than a mile per hour. At Flaherty’s $7.4K price tag on DraftKings, he may be the best value there. The Braves had a 23.2 K% vs RHP this year, although today’s specific lineup features just four batters below a 17 K%.

Offensively, it’s a very tight board with only the Nationals outside a 3.75 to 4.0 implied run range. Atlanta is the much more hitter friendly run environment here too. The surprise in this lineup is Adam Duvall (91 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP this year), who’s had some big hits in this series, replacing Matt Joyce. While Flaherty had just 18 points separating his wOBA between RH and LH batters this season (both below .270), his xwOBA pushed that past 60 points (LHBs .306), making this a questionable decision. A healthy Freddie Freeman (154 wRC+, .280 ISO) would be the top bat in this spot, but there’s some question about how healthy he really is. Ozzie Albies (98 wRC+, .177 ISO) and Nick Markakis (112 wRC+, .147 ISO) are more league average bats against RHP, while Brian McCann (97 wRC+, .178 ISO) is certainly viable behind the plate here.

Mike Foltynewicz has the worst season numbers on the board. His 21.4 K% is the only mark below 29% and his estimators (all above four) are the only ones above four. In fact, he owns the only DRA above three and his .325 xwOBA is worst on the board by exactly 50 points. That said, he struck out seven of 24 Cardinals, allowing just three hits without a run in his first start of the series and finished up on quite the run. After being recalled to the majors in August, he has a 2.65 ERA and 3.77 FIP with a 16.5 K-BB% in 10 starts. With the top park neutral matchup on the board (Cardinals 93 wRC+, 23.2 K% vs RHP), Folty is at least viable in a secondary DraftKings spot at the lowest price on the board ($6K). Dexter Fowler (107 wRC+, .179 ISO vs RHP) is the lowest priced Cardinal on DraftKings ($3.7K) and potentially the top value bat in this game (also below $3K on FanDuel). Marcell Ozuna (113 wRC+, .224 ISO) has been heating up in this series. Paul DeJong (104 wRC+, .228 ISO) is the only other batter in the lineup above a .200 ISO vs RHP this year. Yadiers Molina (77 wRC+) is the only batter in the lineup outside a 97-113 wRC+ range vs RHP this year.

The game in St Louis features the two highest ground ball rates in baseball this year (more than 100 IP), but also the only two strikeout rates on the board lower than 23% in Dallas Keuchel (18.7 K%, 60.1 GB%) and Dakota Hudson (18 K%, 56.9 GB%). They are also the only pitchers on the board above a .300 wOBA (both are above .330) and above 35.5% 95+ mph EV (both are above 38%). While these are clearly the bottom two pitchers on the board from a daily fantasy standpoint and further burdened by the prospect of elimination (in Hudson’s case) or working on just three days rest (in Keuchel’s case), none the less, either must be considered in a secondary role on DraftKings, where they’re the two lowest priced pitchers on the board. One reason is the favorable environment in St Louis, a clear pitcher’s park in the cooler months of the season. Another is the fact that it’s hard to call any pitcher really safe today. Even Max Scherzer fails to fit that description in an elimination game against the Dodgers.

All that said, this is certainly not a spot to avoid batters either. RHBs were right around a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Keuchel this season, still with a 59.3 GB%, but much lower than LHBs (.277 wOBA, 70 GB%). The frightening thing here though, is that this St Louis lineup features just three batters above a .150 ISO vs LHP this year and also just three above a 97 wRC+. Tommy Edman (151 wRC+, .262 ISO) is just one of two above both and he’s batting seventh. The other, and clearly the most coveted batter in this lineup, is Paul Goldschmidt (148 wRC+, .298 ISO).

For the road team, Hudson’s splits have been even worse. LHBs are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA this year with a ground ball rate (50.2%) nearly 15 points lower. This makes Freddie Freeman (154 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP) the clear top bat here, but also adds value to cheaper bats in Nick Markakis (112 wRC+, .147 ISO), Matt Joyce (131 wRC+, .163 ISO) and Brian McCann (97 wRC+, .178 ISO), who has very similar numbers to Ozzie Albies against RHP (98 wRC+, .177 ISO) this year.

22 year old Logan Webb has had a bit of a rough time since being called up as he’s posted a 6.51 ERA over 27 and 2/3 innings. He does have a 4.01 xFIP and 4.61 SIERA and a not-terrible 10.9% K-BB that indicates the ERA is likely a bit inflated. Though he also has a .353 xwOBA allowed (and a .379 xwOBA over the past 30 days) so he isn’t fooling too many batters either. The Braves are missing a few of their best hitters but still have a solid 5.50 implied total and their lineup has some nice value plays as well. Freddie Freeman (.419 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Matt Joyce (.370), Nick Markakis (.370), Dansby Swanson (.340), Tyler Flowers (.308), Adeiny Hechavarria (.294) and Austin Riley (.285) are all in play. Freeman, Joyce and Markakis all have a xwOBA over .400 over the past 2 weeks. Swanson and Hechavarria are batting 1-2 in the order and are both $4k or less on Draftkings and $2.7k or less on Fanduel. Markakis, Joyce and Flowers are all below $3.9k on Draftkings and $2.9k on Fanduel. Billy Hamilton is also an option for GPPs, as he has stolen base upside and is near minimum price on both sites.

Dinelson Lamet recently made his first start since 2017 on July 4th after missing 22 months due to Tommy John surgery. Lamet is a talented young pitcher with a 4.60 ERA / 4.21 xFIP over 119 innings in his career, but is likely to be shaking off a good amount of rust as he works his way back. Lamet already had a control problem (4.22 BB/9) and pitchers often struggle with their command upon first returning from TJ. Lamet has always been a two-pitch guy (Fastball and slider) and does not have an out pitch vs. lefties, leading to a wide platoon split. For his career, Lamet has allowed a .366 wOBA to lefties as opposed to a .236 wOBA vs. righties. Freddie Freeman (.417 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Nick Markakis (.369), Ozzie Albies (.342) and Brian Mccann (.340) are all good left-handed options in the Braves order. Also in play are Ronald Acuna (.387), Josh Donaldson (.379) and Dansby Swanson (.365). Braves bats are pretty affordable across all sites besides slightly high prices on Freeman and Acuna. The Braves currently have a 4.50 implied line vs. Lamet and the Padres tonight in Petco.

Overall, Trevor Richards has a 4.02 ERA that has been suppressed by pitching half his games in Marlins park; he also has a 5.25 xFIP, 5.05 SIERA on the year with a 41.3% hard contact rate, 10.8% K-BB and 43.5% FB rate. Richards has been even worse over the past 30 days with a 5.20 ERA, 5.25 xFIP and 5.30 SIERA with a 8.3% K-BB. The Marlins also have a 5th worst 4.56 bullpen SIERA over the past 30 days. The Braves come into this game with a 2nd best 121 wRC+ over the past 30 days and have a number of good options in their lineup at home vs. Richards and the Marlins. Freddie Freeman (.418 xwOBA vs. RHP), Ronald Acuna (.383), Josh Donaldson (.376), Nick Markakis (.370), Dansby Swanson (.369), Ozzie Albies (.344), Brian McCann (.342) and Austin Riley (.318) make up the 8 hitters in the ATL lineup and all are in play this afternoon. Donaldson and Markakis stand out as the best values as they are both below $4.5K on Draftkings while Acuna, Swanson, Freeman and Riley are all $5k or more. Acuna has been their hottest hitter with a .402 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, while Austin Riley (.227) has cooled down after his hot start to the year. The Braves currently have a healthy 5.66 implied total vs. Richards and the Marlins today in Atlanta.

Mike Foltynewicz does have a league average 10.3 SwStr%, but just a 14.3 K% through five starts. Ironic for a pitcher who was well above a 2.5 K/SwStr last season. He’s not fooling anybody with a 45.3 Z-O-Swing%, resulting in a 10.5% Barrels/BBE and .357 xwOBA that’s still 25 points below his actual results so far. His ERA along with all of his estimators are well above five.

Miles Mikolas had been pitching well before getting thumped for seven runs in Texas last time out. His 16 K% dictates reliance on excellent control (4.3 BB%) and quality contact management, though the latter has only been about league average this year and resulted in an 18.5 HR/FB this year. While only three of his seven HRs have come at home and all three of those in one start, in a normally run and power suppressing park, weather conditions are expected to give offenses a boost in St Louis tonight (Weather Edge is available to premium subscribers).

Unfortunately, this is not as sneaky a spot as we would hope to look for offense with the Cardinals implied above five runs tonight. Matt Carpenter (140 wRC+, .164 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) should certainly be a target against a pitcher who had struggled against LHBs before breaking out last year. The Braves, however, are right around 4.2 runs. This is a spot where we can look at some of their LHBs as well (.329 wOBA vs Mikolas last calendar year). Freddie Freeman (138 wRC+, .202 ISO) has caught fire with a 191 wRC (53.6 Hard%) over the last week. Nick Markakis (119 wRC+, .153 ISO) doesn’t have the upside, but is affordably in the middle of this lineup on most nights. While Mikolas has smothered RHBs (.238 wOBA, .269 xwOBA, 27.1 Hard%, 52.9 GB%), conditions appear to make a talent like Ronald Acuna (137 wRC+, .229 ISO) in play as well. He leads the team with a 65.2 Hard% over the last week.

The Braves face off against Sandy Alcantara tonight with an implied total of 4.8. Alcantara is a talented fireballer who has not yet put it together in his young career. His MiLB numbers leave a lot to be desired for a guy that averages 96 MPH on his fastball. Alcantara had just a 6.85 K/9 with a 4.65 xFIP in the minors last year and then posted an ugly 5.16 xFIP and 4.8% K-BB in his 34 inning big league stint. Also working against Alcantara tonight is umpire Andy Fletcher who is extremely hitter friendly. Freddie Freeman (.392 xwOBA vs. RHP last year), Ronald Acuna (.363) and Nick Markakis (.363) are solid ATL bats to build around. Dansby Swanson (.280) struggled last year but has been hot so far in 2019 with a .396 xwOBA and comes at a very affordable price. Johan Camargo (.301) is giving Josh Donaldson a breather at 3B and comes at an affordable price as well.

Jon Lester has seen further velocity loss in his first start of the season and did not pitch that well even if he did allow only two runs through six innings in Texas. He struck out only three batters with a .176 BABIP despite a 27.8 LD% and 58.8 Z-O-Swing%, which means he wasn’t fooling too many batters. He generated just six ground balls with a 44.4 Hard%. Additionally, the Braves are implied for a second best 4.74 runs on tonight’s five game slate in a game featuring a hitter friendly umpire in Marvin Hudson and an adequate weather situation with a temperature near 70 degrees. The moneyline in this game has moved in Atlanta’s favor as well. While Lester was actually worse against LHBs last season (.364 wOBA vs .306), Statcast contact numbers suggest a 42 point bump to that latter number might have been warranted (.348 xwOBA, 43.6 Hard% vs RHBs). Atlanta features a lineup where each of the first seven batters have a wRC+ 105 or better against LHP since last season. Of those, only Nick Markakis is below a .198 ISO against them in that span.