Nick Martinez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Edwin Jackson has somehow sustained a sub-.300 wOBA against batters from either side of the plate this season, though his xwOBA is within six points of .350 either way with a hard hit rate above 35%. Ji-Man Choi (156 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP this season) has been on fire with a 273 wRC+ and 70 Hard% over the last week. Despite the negative run environment and both teams below 4.5 implied runs, he has a chance to do some damage tonight. On the other side, players can't be sure what the Rays will throw at the A's, but Diego Castillo will start. He has held batters from either side below a .300 wOBA as well, though LHBs have a .350 xwOBA and 47.9 Hard%. Nick Martini (130 wRC+, .114 ISO) costs just $3.2K on DK out of the leadoff spot, while Jed Lowrie (139 wRC+, .219 ISO) and Matt Olson (122 wRC+, .249 ISO) will likely each get one shot at him as well.

Among tonight's starters with more than two starts, Nick Martinez (5.22) is the only one with a SIERA above five over the last two calendar years. In addition, his 6.03 xFIP on the road since last season is also highest on the board by more than half a run. The Houston offense has cooled down over the last week (96 wRC+), but still has a 120 wRC+ vs RHP with just an 18 K% that when combined with Martinez's 13.7 K% this season, suggests a lot of good contact and an excellent stacking opportunity tonight. With three offenses (Washington, Boston, and Minnesota) owning higher run lines, a quality Houston lineup may get lost in the shuffle. This is where their higher price tags can offer an advantage if players are willing to pay down for a pitcher (or at least one of two on DraftKings). All nine starters in the Houston lineup tonight have at least a 98 wRC+ against RHP since last season with Nori Aoki the only one below a .175 ISO and 31 Hard%. Among the first five, only Jose Altuve is below a 40% hard hit rate over the last week, suggesting Carlos Correa's 21 wRC+ has been a bit unlucky over that span. LHBs have a .391 wOBA against Martinez since last season with a 33.6 Hard%, but RHBs have a .340 wOBA with a 17.9 HR/FB against him as well. While many lineups may have a batter or two that stands out, this Houston lineup may work best as a stack that just moves the train along and produces a lot of runs against a poor pitcher.

With a lot of uncertainty on this slate due to no less than three pitchers making their major league start, while a fourth is making just his second and fifth is more than two years removed from his only three major league starts and then some potential east coast weather issues as well, players will likely flock to Chris Sale tonight. That means players will be unlikely to afford many of the bats on offenses projected for at least five runs tonight according to our Vegas Odds page (there are four of them). While Mariners bats aren't entirely priced up for Coors, they're facing a good pitcher in Tyler Anderson (25.0 K-BB%, 58.9 GB% and -11.6 Hard-Soft%) in May and with just a 69 wRC+ against LHP, Vegas may be too enthusiastic here. The Blue Jays are really a four man offense and you have to choose between the two more affordable bats in that group because they both play First Base. All of this potentially makes the Rays the team to target tonight against Nick Martinez in Texas. They have an implied run line of 5.06 and it's projected to be in the mid-80's in Texas tonight (the warmest spot on the board). While not particularly cheap, players will be able to choose between a number of stackable options with a few more affordable ones, as the majority of projected starts have been above average against RHP (100+ wRC+) with every one of the first seven projected batters in the lineup tonight (Starting Lineups page) carrying an ISO above .160 against RHP since 2015. This may be the lineup players should be focused on tonight.

Though weather conditions (temperatures in the 50s with wind potentially blowing in from center at 14 mph) do not necessarily favor offense, the Red Sox enjoy the highest implied run line tonight (5.37) by more than half a run over Houston when they face off with Nick Martinez (4.33 ERA, 4.86 SIERA, 12.8 K%). While he has held RHBs to a 25.3 Hard% and 51.7 GB% since last season, they've still put up a .342 wOBA against him due to a negative K-BB%. LHBs have flat out destroyed him (.381 wOBA, 36.5 Hard%). The entire top and middle of this lineup grades out well with weather the only real drawback. Hanley Ramirez (two HRs in nine PAs, 93.2 mph aEV on 6 BBEs) is the only batter on the slate with multiple HRs against tonight's pitcher. Andrew Benintendi (132 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP career) and Mookie Betts (131 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are top five overall projected bats tonight (RotoGrinders Player Projections). Boston bats are expensive and there's always the question of whether to pay up for a low power bat like Xander Bogaerts (.126 ISO vs RHP since 2015) in the middle of a potentially potent lineup at a weak position, but expectations are that they should be worth the cost as a group tonight.

Detroit has the second highest implied run line tonight (4.79), but despite the losses of Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera, some of their bats may grade out better than the highest projected offense (Washington (5.1 runs) against the tricky knuckleball of R.A. Dickey. Nick Martinez has allowed RHBs a .345 wOBA since last season despite a 25.7 Hard% because he still has a 17.8 HR/FB against them. LHBs have pounded him for .397 wOBA and 35.8 Hard%. This may make Alex Avila a top play both due to offensive prowess (135 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP since last season, 265 wRC+, 62.5 Hard% over the last week), but also as a salary saver behind the plate. In addition to the stats just quoted, his 66.7% of batted balls with an exit velocity above 95 mph leads the majors among those with at least 30 BBEs (he has 42). J.D. Martinez (158 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP since last season) may be able to pick up a lot of the slack from the lineup departures on his own. His 409 wRC+ over the last week leads the majors among those with more than 13 PAs and it includes five HRs and a 64.3 Hard%. Justin Upton (114 wRC+, .234 ISO), Ian Kinsler (112 wRC+, .167 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (122 wRC+, .191 ISO) all grade out well against RHP since last season and could complete a strong stack tonight. In fact, the only detriment to the Detroit offense tonight is a temperature projected to be in the low 50s. This is an otherwise great spot for this offense, which may be enhanced by better lineup spots with their traditional three and four batters out tonight.

Nick Martinez will be making his first start of the season in tonight's game against the Kansas City Royals. To put it mildly, Martinez is not a Major League caliber starting pitcher, evidenced by a career 11.9% strikeout rate to lefties and a 13.4% strikeout rate to right-handed batters leading to a 5.17 SIERA. The low strikeouts combined with a minuscule 34.7% ground ball rate to left-handed batters and inability to induce soft contact or limit hard contact has led to a career .348 wOBA to lefties and .358 wOBA to righties. In other words, this is a great spot to target a Royals offense, that is on the road with a significant ballpark upgrade, that should go overlooked with other high total games on the board. The primary reason they will likely fly under the radar is that they are typically an underwhelming lineup to target given their lack of overall power in a pitcher's park at home but are more than playable on Saturday's slate in a matchup with an equally underwhelming pitcher on the road. Mike Moustakas (129 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .282 ISO vs RHP since 2016) is the Royals bat that clearly possesses the highest upside, but Eric Hosmer (113 wRC+, .343 wOBA, .169 ISO since 2016) also hits right-handed pitching well and should have an easier time launching the ball in the air against Martinez, effectively adding to his home run probability. Brandon Moss (.302 ISO) is off to a horrendous start out of the gate this season, but he did exhibit massive power in 2016 versus righties and should have an easier time making contact in this matchup. The remaining Royals hitters like Salvador Perez, Lorenzo Cain, and Alex Gordon are better utilized to round out a stack in tournaments, though a case can always be made for Perez (.196 ISO vs RHP since 2016) as a one-off considering the typical dearth of options at the catcher position on a nightly basis.

Nick Martinez has a career 3.6 K-BB% and even less value against an Oakland offense that strikes out 18% against RHP and on the road. They're not a particularly potent offense with just an 88 wRC+ against RHP, but are projected for 5.3 runs tonight. Players probably should be looking at Josh Reddick (156 wRC+, .189 ISO vs RHP this season) and the returning Stephen Vogt (112 wRC+, .171 ISO vs RHP this season) in a hitter's park, especially with Catcher being very weak tonight. Both may be cost prohibitive at $4.7K or higher on DraftKings, but cost $3.2K or less on FanDuel.

To say Nick Martinez is not a very good major league pitcher would be an understatement. Over his career he's allowed a .340+ wOBA to both sides of the plate including a very unimpressive 18 innings this season where he has allowed 19 hits, 10 runs, walked 12, while striking out only 7. Factor in that he has to face the Red Sox in Fenway today and it's easy to see why Vegas has given the home team a run total topping six runs. The entire Red Sox line up with the exception of perhaps Sandy Leon batting ninth (although you could make an argument for him considering he does have a .508 wOBA in a small sample size of 20 AB's) is in play. David Ortiz and his .503 wOBA, .387 ISO is the clear top option but you can't probably go wrong mixing in the RH bats of Betts, Pedroia, Bogaerts, and Ramirez at the top of lineup or mixing in the LH bats of Bradley, Holt, and Shaw from the bottom half. While Rick Porcello is a solid -190 favorite, the Rangers should still be able to score some runs off him. Shin-Soo Choo is a top option for them with Ian Desmond, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder, and Rougned Odor all worth a look as part of a team stack or by themselves in a lineup.