Nick Tropeano Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Though not a ton of arms with enormous upside and consistency, this is a board with some pitching depth. Luke Weaver has struggled in two of his last three starts, but has gone six innings with two ERs or less and at least five strikeouts in three of his last five. By strikeout rate (21%), SIERA (4.37 – better than Lance Lynn) and xwOBA (.337 – better than Lynn and Cole Hamels), he’s been a reasonably competent pitcher this year, who seems to manage contact decently (86.9 mph aEV). He’s in a great spot tonight with a park boost in Miami (8.8 HR/FB at home, 16.1 K-BB% vs RHP) at a reasonable price (around $7K). Nick Tropeano has a 10% walk rate and has allowed 15 HRs over 13 starts (89.8 mph aEV). He does have an 11.7 SwStr% that suggests better than his 20 K% and the Tigers have just a 73 wRC+, 16.6 K-BB% and 8.5 HR/FB on the road and a 75 wRC+, 15.7 K-BB% and 8.1 HR/FB vs RHP. His weaknesses are also theirs. Zack Godley set a season high with 10 strikeouts in seven two-hit innings against a hot Texas offense last time out. Over the last month, he has a 29.7 K%, 16.4 SwStr% and 3.06 SIERA, all best on the board. He’s in a high upside spot (Phillies 25.8 K%, 8.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP) at home. Matt Boyd has allowed three runs over his last 19 innings with 20 strikeouts. He has a 22 K% on the season and a 3.10 SIERA over the last month. His .290 xwOBA is tied for third best on the board. He’s been a great contact manager (86.2 mph aEV, 3.9% Barrels/BBE, 28.8% 95+ mph EV). He gets a park upgrade and the Angels have just an 83 wRC+ vs LHP despite being predominantly right-handed and Mike Trout has missed the last four games with a wrist issue. Wei-Yin Chen is also an interesting, nearly min-priced DK SP2 option. Without much upside, he has gone six innings in each of his last four home starts, allowing more than one run in just one of those. He has just a 16.9 K%, but manages contact well enough (.318 xwOBA, 86.3 mph aEV, 5.2% Barrels/BBE). The Cardinals do have some proficiency against LHP (104 wRC+, 10 BB%, 17.3 HR/FB), but it’s the most negative run environment and possibly most power suppressing one on the board.

If it seems like home run prone pitchers are the theme on this Wednesday evening, it's not going to stop now. Nick Tropeano allowed five HRs in his last start...at home...to the White Sox. He's allowed 11 over his last seven starts and moves from one negative run environent to a similar one in Tampa Bay. While his HRs have been split evenly (seven each) this season, his wOBA allowed to LHBs is .371 vs .317 against RHBs. Kevin Kiermaier (95 wRC+, .184 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Jake Bauers (126 wRC+, .248 ISO) are top third of the lineup LHBs. Michael Perez has a 223 wRC+ (50 Hard% over the last week with a .430 wOBA and xwOBA against RHP in just a few games. He bats fifth and costs $3.1K or less behind the plate. Tommy Pham (120 wRC+, .186 ISO) will attempt to make a better first impression on his new team from the cleanup spot than the one he left on his old team with a -30 wRC+ and just one hit over his last 13 PAs.

The Kansas City lineup has not yet been confirmed, but one thing that should be expected is a contact prone bunch tonight. The Royals have a team 17.7 K% vs RHP this season, which lowers expectations for Nick Tropeano, who does have an 11.6 SwStr% this season, but also has an 89.2 mph aEV that's one-tenth of a point off from the highest mark on the board. Run prevention may not be as much of an issue (88 wRC+, 7.0 BB%, 8.4 HR/FB vs RHP) in a negative run environment as upside for a pitcher that costs $8K or more on either site.

Batters from either side of the plate have a 40+ Hard% against Nick Tropeano in his return from Tommy John surgery this year. RHBs have a .370 xwOBA 57 points above their actual mark. Detroit does not strike out a lot and the park is a positive run environment. They have a 4.32 implied run line that's in the middle of the board without a batter above $4K on either site. This may be a sneaky, salary saving mini-stack, though only three or four batters have been competent or better against RHP over the last calendar year: Nick Castellanos (118 wRC+, .207 ISO), Jeimer Candelario (133 wRC+, .195 ISO), Leonys Martin (102 wRC+, .177 ISO) and John Hicks (95 wRC+, .163 ISO).

Half of the eight teams on the afternoon slate (and on the six team FanDuel one) have an implied run line between 4.6 and 4.9, which comprises the top half of the board. The Angels (4.68) and Blue Jays (4.82) are two of them. Both starts, Nick Tropeano and Marco Estrada, are middle of the board among the seven pitchers who have made starts this year in strikeout rate, a bit below average and both have ERA estimators right around five, though the visiting pitcher has a DRA (4.58) much lower than the home one (7.20). Both xwOBAs lie between .355 and .380. Tropeano has the slightly higher aEV (89.6 mph), though Estrada has a much higher Barrels/BBE (12.5%) with a ground ball rate (25.6%) that's 10 full points lower than Tropeano (35.9%). Both pitchers have exhibited a reverse platoon split since last year with Estrada being good against LHBs (.306 wOBA, .293 xwOBA, 25.2 Hard%) and Tropeano allowing batters from either side an xwOBA in excess of .340 with a 40+ Hard%. There are few proficient left-handed batters in either of these lineups. Mike Trout (178 wRC+, .432 xwOBA, .314 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (132 wRC+, .379 xwOBA, .250 ISO) are obvious top players, both potentially bargains even at higher cost in these matchups and certainly affordable without a high priced pitcher on the board this afternoon. Beyond that, the Toronto lineup appears to offer more value without another batter reaching $4K on either site. Teoscar Hernandez (140 wRC+, .400 xwOBA, .318 ISO) is a top overall play and a great value play as well. Justin Upton (120 wRC+, .232 ISO) is the only other right-handed batter in either lineup topping a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Shohei Ohtani (188 wRC+, .434 xwOBA, .343 ISO) and Yangervis Solarte (120 wRC+, .217 ISO) get there from the left side. Dwight Smith (151 wRC+, .326 xwOBA, .091 ISO in very limited work) is a cheap leadoff bat if that's something that might be needed.

Players paying up for one pitcher on DraftKings (which should be nearly everybody) will likely need a cheaper secondary arm and two of those possibilities are on the west coast tonight. Tyson Ross predictably had some trouble in Coors (4 IP – 4 ER) after throwing 127 pitches in Arizona in a no-hit effort, but he still struck out seven of 21 batters. It was his first failure to complete six innings this year. Batters are chasing the slider again (28.2% Z-O-Swing%), leading to a .277 xwOBA and the lowest rate of barrels per batted ball on the board (2.9%). He has some platoon split issues, but may be in the perfect spot tonight. The park in San Francisco kills left-handed power (and Brandon Belt's career) and the Giants have few competent left-handers to attack him with. They have a 16.8 K-BB% vs RHP that’s very close to his own mark this season (17.1%). Nick Tropeano has allowed nine runs (three HRs) over his last 10.2 innings in starts against the Red Sox and Astros. There are some long ball concerns, but he can also miss a few bats (21.1 K%, 10.8 SwStr%) at a low cost. He gets a highly strikeout prone Baltimore offense (25.8 % vs RHP) in a negative run environment in LA.

An umpire probably is not going to break your decision to use Max Scherzer or Chris Sale, but if you need to pair another lower priced pitcher up with them (Tyson Ross, Nick Tropeano, the debuting Mike Soroka), an extreme ball and strike caller behind the plate could move the needle a bit, especially for pitchers with questionable control. Premium and BAT subscribers can now find those umpire ratings built right into LineupHQ, one of the many new features available on the site. Another, Stolen Base Threat Ratings may assist in finding that low priced value bat tonight. On a 14 game slate, there are a lot of players and stats to pour through. PlateIQ now makes that easier with conditional formatting. These are just some of the new MLB tools available to premium subscribers this season.

The Angels have the second lowest implied run line on the afternoon slate (3.18) in their matchup against Justin Verlander, one of the two Aces on the early board. Verlander has missed six innings just by a single out once this season, striking out at least nine in three of five starts, allowing more than a single run just once. Only Max Scherzer has averaged more innings per start than his 6.5 over the last two calendar years or has a highest strikeout rate than his 31.7% this year on this board. While he's not going to sustain a .197 BABIP, Verlander is an extreme fly ball pitcher (29.7%) with a high IFFB rate (14.3%) and low Z-Contact rate (76.6%), which profiles well for his mark in the future. This helps his xwOBA (.282) stay below .300 despite still being well above his actual. He's not in an ideal spot against an offense with a 109 wRC+ and 18.6 K% vs RHP, but he does get to face them in a negative run environment, though perhaps a bit less negative with the roof expected to be open. Considering the extreme fly ball profile without much of a platoon split for Verlander, Mike Trout (190 wRC+, .436 xwOBA, .355 ISO, 41.2 Hard%, 47.1 FB% since 2017) is a reasonable play, even against one of the top pitchers in the league. Justin Upton (118 wRC+, .230 ISO, 39.6 Hard%), Zack Cozart (127 wRC+, .228 ISO) and Luis Valbuena (97 wRC+, .227 ISO) exhibit significant pop against RHP as well since last season. The Astros have the third highest implied run line at 4.82 against Nick Tropeano, who pitched well against Kansas City and then struggled against the Red Sox since returning from TJ surgery. It's difficult to draw a lot of analysis from those two matchups on opposite ends of the offensive spectrum, but Tropeano has a career 35 point difference in a standard platoon splite merely because his walk rate is double against LHBs. Batters from either side have a ground ball rate below 30% with something around league average strikeout and hard hit rates. Players not paying up for pitching, may certainly like the big three at a high cost (all above 125 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since last season). Josh Reddick (136 wRC+, .199 ISO), Yulieski Gurriel (129 wRC+, .200 ISO) and Alex Bregman (112 wRC+, .165 ISO) cost around $1K less. Marwin Gonzalez (148 wRC+, .217 ISO) cheaper still, though there's a 43 point drop from his wOBA to his xwOBA vs RHP since last season. All except Gurriel (108) exceed a 140 wRC+ over the last week, though only Gonzalez, George Springer and Carlos Correa are above a 25% hard hit rate over that span.