| Date | Opp | DKSAL | FDSAL | DKFPTS | FDFPTS | sf | ab | slg | h | so | hbp | gidp | 1b | babip | 2b | pa | 3b | sb | hr | xbh | r | obp | rbi | iso | bb | ops | ibb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-13 | vs. CLE | $2K | $2K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021-04-12 | vs. CLE | $2K | $2K | 6 | 9.2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| 2021-04-11 | vs. KC | $3K | $2K | 2 | 3.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021-04-08 | vs. KC | $2.2K | -- | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 |
Nick Williams Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
A Clear Mispricing
I really don't understand how Williams is only priced at 3.7k over on DK today. On the season vs. RHP he owns a .194 ISO, .340 wOBA, and a .449 CXwOBA. The guy is crushing the ball this year and is batting in the middle of a potent lineup with the Phil's. He draws a matchup against Hernandez in a decent ballpark. On the year vs. lefties, Hernandez owns a terrible .394 wOBA and .205 ISO. He is getting crushed by lefties and is walking lefties at the same clip as righties. This an easy lock in spot for Williams here if you need the money and don't forget to throw him in your Phi stacks
Good Batted Ball Profile Here
We don't have a ton of value on this smaller slate, so I'm attacking more upside with my value bats on this slate. Urena has struggled with left-handed hitters more than righties this season, and I think some of these lefties are in play against him. Urena has a .329 wOBA with a .177 ISO and a 41% hard-hit rate against lefties in 2018. Nick Williams has a .207 ISO with a .464 CXwOBA against righties this season. Williams has a .411 CXwOBA with a .214 ISO against sinkers in 80 balls in play in his short career. Urena throws his sinker 45% of the time this season.
This potent lineup against RHP could do more damage than linemakers expect
Take note that Rick Porcello has struggled against LHBs. They have a .338 wOBA (.355 xwOBA) against him since last season with a 41.5 Hard% and 33.8 GB%. Since allowing his first HR on April 29th, LHBs have a .332 wOBA and 10 HRs against him this season as well, despite Fenway park actually suppressing power for LHBs. Tonight's park in Philadelphia has no such issues and the Phillies have wisely stacked the top of the top half of the lineup with five LHBs among the first six. Every batter in the lineup is above a 105 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year and leadoff man Cesar Hernandez (110 wRC+, .116 ISO) is the only batter among the first seven below a .188 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Nick Williams (119 wRC+, .220 ISO) is a very interesting bat in the second spot. This is a lineup that could do more damage than Vegas expects with just a 4.26 implied run line tonight.
Low Owned Value Play
With the limited pitching options on this slate, I could see Tyler Mahle getting some nice ownership tonight. He's been really good against righties, but he continues to struggle with left-handed hitters this season. He has a .409 wOBA with a .279 ISO and a 48.3% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters.
With Mahle being looked at, I would guess the Phillies would be pretty low owned tonight. I like Williams, Santana, and Herrera tonight as a tournament stack. Williams in particular is a nice value option tonight and continues to hit right-handed pitching well. He has a .214 ISO with a .344 wOBA and a .467 CXwOBA against righties this season.
Low-Owned Value Option
When searching for some upside from a value, it's easy to overlook Nick Williams against Trevor Williams, who has done a great job at limiting the damage against left-handed hitters this season. He has a .308 wOBA with a .139 ISO against left-handed hitters so far.
That said, Williams has a low strikeout rate and tends to pitch to contact against lefties. He uses his fastball right at 50% of the time and averages 90-92 mph on that pitch. Since being called up last season, Nick Williams has a .496 wOBA with a .512 CXwOBA and a .368 ISO with a 40.63% hard-hit rate against fastballs in that range. There is a lot of upside here, but nothing is ever a lock. Still, at this price, I'm willing to roll the dice.
Don't Forget About This Guy
We don't have a lot of value options tonight, and with the big bats on this slate, I like Nick Williams as a value. Alex Cobb has struggled this season, and with the Phillies priced up, I doubt they get any ownership. Cobb has a .408 wOBA with a .231 ISO and a 16.7% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters this season. Williams profiles well against fastballs and curveballs, which is what Cobb throws over 80% of the time to left-handed hitters. He also has a .219 ISO with a .472 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
0% IFFB Rate
Nick Williams is my favorite value play on tonight's slate. He has a .224 ISO with a .472 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching this season, and being a massive groundball hitter, he benefits from facing a fly ball pitcher. Roark continues to struggle with left-handed hitters, and it's been his downfall over the last couple of seasons. He has a .339 wOBA with a .199 ISO against lefties this year. He does get a good amount of soft contact, but he gives up a lot of fly balls, and that's why I love Williams tonight.
Heating Up
Nick Williams has his ISO against RHP all the way up to .211 this season, and tonight he draws a matchup against Chris Stratton, who has had all sorts of trouble against left-handed pitching. He's allowing a .216 ISO and a .355 wOBA to them this year while only striking out 14.7% and walking over 12% of left-handed bats. The ballpark isn't the best for Williams, but that should keep ownership nice and low in this great spot.
Dependent on Gabe
This play is going to depend entirely on how Gabe Kapler is feeling this beautiful Friday. Aaron Altherr has gotten the start and hit fifth the last couple of games against right handed pitching but there's a chance that Nick Williams will slot in for Altherr against Teheran. While Altherr is the better player, Williams has the platoon which is huge when facing someone with splits as wide as Teheran's (.342 wOBA vs LHB, .269 wOBA vs RHB). Altherr is more of a GPP/stack option if he's in the lineup, whereas Williams is a strong source of salary relief in all formats should he hit fifth.
Jameson Taillon is an excellent contact manager, but with an extremely high price that's difficult to justify
Jameson Taillon is the most expensive pitcher on the board and it's difficult to understand why, aside from Philadelphia having the lowest implied run line on the board (3.44) and Kevin projecting some fairly strong winds blowing in from left-field (15-20 mph). Taillon has a 0.89 ERA and 24 K% over three starts, but both are a fluke. He struck out just two Marlins in his last start and has not eclipsed a 6.5 SwStr% in either of his last two starts. He has a .160 BABIP and 95.6 LOB% without a history of piling up strikeouts. The Phillies (26.9 K% vs RHP) may have to provide a lot of the upside here. However, a look at PlateIQ shows us that the actual strikeout rate for the confirmed lineup is a bit lower at 23.5% vs RHP since the start of last season. What Taillon has done in the past and continues to do is managing contact well (58.8 GB%, .210 xwOBA, 21.6% 95+ mph EV all best on the board among those with more than two starts). Normally, this is not a profile players like paying up for, but it's not unreasonable on such a small slate if his price tag is likely to keep ownership rate low. He's unlikely to get hit hard, but there are still likely cheaper pitchers with more upside. While LHBs have had just slightly more actual success against Taillon since last season, xwOBA suggests a much largers split (.336 LHBs, .266 RHBs). Rhys Hoskins (166 wRC+, .410 xwOBA, .306 ISO career vs RHP) seems to be in the rare spot where he may not be worth paying up for. Nick Williams (113 wRC+, .197 ISO vs RHP career) continues to be extremely cheap and has a higher hard hit rate than any other batter in the lineup over the last week (55.6%). A pitcher with this contact profile is really not one players should be looking to attack tonight though. Francisco Cervelli can be run on, but Taillon isn't going to walk many.