Noah Syndergaard Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The first thing worth mentioning is that there aren’t really many great values on the mound. This is not a great pitching slate. In fact, the pitcher currently carrying the top P/$ value projection on FanDuel (and this is certainly subject to change) is Noah Syndergaard in his Philadelphia debut, as they try to reassemble the 2016 Mets rotation. He’s registered a 25.8 K% over his last four starts, pushing his season rate up to 18.9% (12.4 K-BB%), seemingly sacrificing some ground balls (now 44.9%) for strikeouts, though he’s also now allowed 10.1% Barrels/BBE over his last 12 starts. He has just one Quality Start in his last six, while season estimators are above, but within half a run of his 3.83 ERA. While the Nationals have a 94 wRC+ and 19.8 K% vs RHP this year, he’s certainly facing something worse than that tonight. However, the temperatures in Philly tonight are projected to be blistering with the wind blowing out. This will not be a pitcher friendly environment for Thor’s debut at all. None the less, he’s less than $8K on either site and is the third best DraftKings projected value as well. Syndergaard is a top four projected overall arm on this board.

Costing a bit less than Syndergaard on either site, Jeffrey Springs has suffered no drop off since moving into the rotation with a 20.4 K-BB% aligning almost perfectly with his 20.6% season rate. However, a .380 BABIP and 18.2 HR/FB over his last five starts has generated 5.32 ERA with six of his eight barrels (10.4%) leaving the yard. While the contact profile is a bit worse, he has an even more impressive 21.3 K-BB% over this span. In other words, as long as you don’t expect six innings (only three times), he should be fine, though season estimators are all more than half a run above his 2.70 ERA (88.6 LOB%). More problematically, the Tigers have a 104 wRC+ with just a 21.9 K% vs LHP and this is the highest weather risk (as in rain) on the slate. However, Springs is the top projected DraftKings value and second best FanDuel one.

In the same price range, Jose Quintana is the third best projecting FanDuel value. He has only completed six innings five times this year, as the Pirates were conservative with his workload. What he has offered though, is a league average 13.4 K-BB% with an 87.1 mph EV. There is a bit of a gap between his FIP (3.23) and xERA (4.17) with just seven of his 23 barrels (7.4%) leaving the yard (7.0 HR/FB). There may be some regression there, but he’s moving to a power suppressing park with a great defense that should help his .307 BABIP too. He also has a favorable matchup in his first St Louis start. The Pirates have a 100 wRC+ vs LHP, but also a 23.8 K%. They also have a 38 wRC+ and 24.6 K-BB% over the last week overall.

Projecting as a strong DraftKings value, Cole Ragan was once an interesting pitching prospect, but two Tommy John surgeries later, that is no longer the case. Ragan’s upside appears to be backend starter with a 40 Future Value grade (Fangraphs). He has exceeded a 20 K-BB% at both AA and AAA this year. He’s also allowed 10 home runs in 94.2 innings. With the roof closed, as it generally is during the summer months, Texas is a negative run environment. However, the White Sox have a 120 wRC+ and 21.8 K% vs LHP and with Luis Robert expected back tonight, the lineup finally appears to be whole.

Noah Syndergaard, similar to Kershaw, has seen his strikeout rate increase (27.9%) and his estimators decline (3.49 SIERA, 3.39 FIP) over the last month, while his ERA has risen (5.00). A personal catcher request this week has been overblown by the media, but it’s very likely Wilson Ramos will be behind the plate again with the off day yesterday and lefty on the mound and MLB.com & Statcast’s Mike Petriello had an interesting tweet this morning that refuted some of the tandem’s poor results together. Syndergaard has allowed nine and four runs in starts against the Phillies and Cubs over the last month, but has also thrown at least six shutout innings against the Indians and Nationals over his last four starts as well. His 4.8% Barrels/BBE and 31.4% 95+ mph EV are both top three marks on the board tonight and his 3.16 DRA is 90 points better than his actual ERA which is the second largest negative DRA/ERA gap on the board. The Dodgers are no easy assignment (115 wRC+, 10.4 K-BB%, 17.8 HR/FB vs RHP). However, Citi Field is one of the most negative run environments in baseball and wind blowing in from right field should counter some of the Dodger power, while the offense has a 77 wRC+ over the last week. Check the lineup to see if they’re resting any of their regular bats as the Dodgers have things pretty well wrapped up in the National League. If so, Thor at less than $9.5K is a high upside GPP play, though he’d understandably be more difficult to trust in cash games at this point.

The top two pitchers today are off the main slate, leaving players with just Jake Odorizzi and Noah Syndergaard reaching $9K on both sites. Taking environment and matchup into account, Ryan Yarbrough may be the top arm on the slate. He combines the best walk rate (3.2%) with the top aEV (83.9 mph) and 95+ mph EV (25.5%) on the board with a league average strikeout rate (22%). Since the All-Star break, he’s allowed more than a single earned run in only two outings. The Orioles have an 18.3 K-BB% and 10.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHP this year and the Dome in Tampa Bay is just one of two negative run environments on the board, along with St Louis. The lone drawback here is Yarbrough’s workload. In his nine starts (without an Opener), he’s faced at least 26 batters five times and failed to complete six innings just once. However, he’s been held to 85 pitches or less in three straight starts after coming one out away from a complete game four starts back. This is the type of risk players are just going to have to accept on a difficult board. Regardless, Yarbrough should still be a strong value for just $7.6K on FanDuel.

Noah Syndergaard walked a season high five Padres last time out and allowed four runs for the third time in six starts, but there are some strong signs here as well. Syndergaard has gone seven innings in each of his last three starts with eight or more strikeouts in each and a 14.2 SwStr% over the last 30 days. An increase in strikeout rate would be a huge boon to the top contact manager on the board by aEV (86.2 mph). His 3.32 DRA and .281 xwOBA are both third best on the board, behind only Verlander and Morton. Whereas Verlander and Morton have tougher matchups in more positive run environments, Syndergaard faces the White Sox (85 wRC+, 19.6 K-BB% vs RHP) in Chicago. The home team also owns a board low 36 wRC+ over the last week with a 22.2 K-BB% and 5.2 HR/FB. Syndergaard may still not be able to rival Verlander as the top overall arm in the board, but he may have an argument as the best value among tonight’s four $10K pitchers as Thor is the cheapest of the four at $10.3K on DraftKings.

It would be hard to argue that the 2019 version of Noah Syndergaard is the best pitcher on the board tonight, but underlying metrics would certainly suggest that he’s better than his results and he may just be in the best spot to succeed tonight. The first piece of good news is that he’s struck out 17 of his last 55 batters and has gone seven innings in each of his last two starts. Those were in Miami and San Francisco, but tonight, he’s facing the Padres (90 wRC+, 18.5 K-BB%) at home. Citi Field is one of the most negative run environments in baseball and Syndergaard may also be in line for some umpiring help tonight (premium subscription required for Umpire Ratings). He’s exceeded a 14 SwStr% in three of his last four starts now and four of his last six. For the season, his 3.15 DRA is 1.21 runs below his ERA and his .282 xwOBA is 24 below his actual mark. In addition, Syndergaard’s 86 mph aEV and 30.1% 95+ mph EV is lowest not only on tonight’s slate, but for the entire day. Syndergaard costs $10K exactly on either site, which makes him just the third most expensive pitcher tonight. Considering environment, conditions and value, Syndergaard may be tonight’s top pitcher or at least the best value among high priced arms.