Norichika Aoki Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Although Chris Taylor and Ezequiel Carrera (just 11 PAs) both have a wRC+ above 300 over the last week, both have a hard hit rate below 20% and appear to have been a bit fortunate, especially in Taylor's case without even a walk in 28 PAs. That leaves us with four bats to consider with a wRC+ above 300 and hard hit rate at least one-third of batted balls over the last week (10 PA min.). Or three if you consider that Nori Aoki leads the slate with a 356 wRC+, 33.3 Hard% and one HR in just 11 PAs also. He may or may not play against Nick Pivetta, who has shown a severe reverse split so far (LHBs .283 wOBA). Didi Gregorius is our first legitimate candidate (325 wRC+, 36.4 Hard%, three HRs). He was one of the few hot Yankees on their just concluded road trip. Luis Castillo has been a strikeout artist, but a bit HR prone with seven in six starts and four of those to LHBs. Jose Altuve (313 wRC+, 34.8 Hard%, one HR) may be the top batter on the slate against Nick Pivetta (RHBs .429 wOBA, 45.1 Hard%). Randal Grichuk (308 wRC+, 45.5 Hard%, four HRs) deserves a bump in the order against Jon Gray, who has seen his strikeouts drop this year. Dropping just below 300, we find Bryce Harper (295 wRC+, 57.1 Hard%, two HRs), an excellent candidate against Zach Davies (LHBs .343 wOBA, 33.1 Hard% career) if he's affordable. Zack Cozart (292 wRC+, 55 Hard%, three HRs) has been hammering LHP all season (194 wRC+, .303 ISO) and gets a shot at another HR prone one in Yankee Stadium (Jordan Montgomery 10 HRs last eight starts)

Among tonight's starters with more than two starts, Nick Martinez (5.22) is the only one with a SIERA above five over the last two calendar years. In addition, his 6.03 xFIP on the road since last season is also highest on the board by more than half a run. The Houston offense has cooled down over the last week (96 wRC+), but still has a 120 wRC+ vs RHP with just an 18 K% that when combined with Martinez's 13.7 K% this season, suggests a lot of good contact and an excellent stacking opportunity tonight. With three offenses (Washington, Boston, and Minnesota) owning higher run lines, a quality Houston lineup may get lost in the shuffle. This is where their higher price tags can offer an advantage if players are willing to pay down for a pitcher (or at least one of two on DraftKings). All nine starters in the Houston lineup tonight have at least a 98 wRC+ against RHP since last season with Nori Aoki the only one below a .175 ISO and 31 Hard%. Among the first five, only Jose Altuve is below a 40% hard hit rate over the last week, suggesting Carlos Correa's 21 wRC+ has been a bit unlucky over that span. LHBs have a .391 wOBA against Martinez since last season with a 33.6 Hard%, but RHBs have a .340 wOBA with a 17.9 HR/FB against him as well. While many lineups may have a batter or two that stands out, this Houston lineup may work best as a stack that just moves the train along and produces a lot of runs against a poor pitcher.

Matt Shoemaker has the highest SwStr% (13.6) on the board over the last month for anyone with more than three starts and has been above 11% in each of those five starts, but allows a lot of hard contact in the air and faces the top offense in baseball. He’s allowed 13 HRs pitching in a power suppressing park and has only even pitched in one power friendly park this season with road starts in Miami, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Houston, Kansas City and Oakland. He allowed two HRs in that last start in Houston. Tonight, he faces a lineup without a top bat in George Springer, but we know he likes to throw that splitter down below the zone (whether he gets there often enough is another question), so we should be able to use PlateIQ to see if there are any strong matchups here. While the Splitter is not a common pitch with small sample sizes over the last two years for hitters, only the last four batters in the lineup have a below average Hit% against the pitch over the last two seasons. However, Josh Reddick, Carlos Correa, Brian McCann, Marwin Gonzalez, Alex Bregman and even Nori Aoki and Jake Marisnick match up well low in the zone where Shoemaker likes to ideally be with Brian McCann perhaps matching up best, excelling where Shoemaker likes to work lefties, down and away.

Aaron Sanchez looks to be running of gas as the season winds down, and that's good news for this Seattle lineup. Sanchez has been roughed up in each of his last four starts and the Mariners own an impressive .329 team wOBA at Safeco Field this season. With left-handed batters having far more success off of Sanchez this season, both Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager are locked in as top tier plays at their respective positions, with the likes of Adam Lind, Seth Smith and Norichika Aoki all fine secondary targets.

Jhoulys Chacin has pitched his way out of the rotation and hasn't been much better in the bullpen, but gets the spot start out of necessity tonight. Despite the negative run environment, the Mariners are projected for 4.6 runs with Nelson Cruz (138 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Kyle Seager (129 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Robinson Cano (138 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP since 2015) all looking like strong plays. LHBs have a .378 wOBA and 37.9 Hard% against Chacin since last season. Another interesting name to consider here is Norichika Aoki (111 wRC+, .119 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who has little power, but three HRs in 19 PAs against Chacin and a 237 wRC+ over the last week. Of note on those three HRs though, one was an inside the park job and at least one other one occured in Colorado according to Baseball Savant.

Aoki will be the leadoff hitter tonight against left-handed Patrick Dean, who is making his second career major league start. Aoki (.407 wOBA, 167 wRC+) has been picking it up over the last week but is only a tournament option against a left-handed pitcher. Nelson Cruz is an elite target in all league formats and is actually slightly discounted on DK compared to the average salary of his last 7 games. Cruz has a .468 wOBA, 210 wRC+ over the last week and should be able to some damage against Dean at home.

Don't be fooled by the Win/Loss record, Colby Lewis gave up a lot of hard contact last season (19.7 Hard-Soft%) and has done so throughout his career (15.1 Hard-Soft%). The park in Seattle tempers expectations slightly, but this is a lineup that should punish bad RHPs. Everyone aside from Iannetta and Martin are well above average hitters vs RHP. Aoki is only at a 108 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, but has a coveted spot atop the lineup. Robinson Cano, Seth Smith, and Nelson Cruz all have a wRC+ above 125 against RHP since last season and are all off to hot starts (150+ wRC+ over last week).

Erik Surkamp is a 28 year old journeyman who hasn't started a major league game since 2013 with just 57 total innings over four seasons. He has a career ERA with estimators well over five. And he is lefty handed. Nelson Cruz destroys lefies (202 wRC+ last year). The other interesting thing is that the Seattle lefties hit LHP well too. Kyle Seager had a 131 wRC+ vs LHP last year. Robinson Cano has a career 109 wRC+ vs lefties. Leadoff man Nori Aoki has a reverse career split (116 wRC+ vs LHP). Though the park plays pitcher friendly, the Mariners have one of the higher projected run totals tonight (4.56). You could even venture further down the lineup for value plays: Chris Iannetta (134 wRC+ career vs LHP) and Franklin Gutierrez (168 wRC+/.298 ISO vs LHP last year). Feel comfortable liberally using the Mariners lineup tonight.