Omar Narvaez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Zach Davies has allowed at least four earned runs in six of his last nine starts with 15 home runs on 20 barrels (16%) over that span. Season estimators all exceed five. As such, the Brewers have the third highest implied run line on the board tonight (5.48) and the moderate to low price tags on their bats make them even more attractive. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Davies this year, so players should be comfortable rostering nearly anyone the Brewers send up there against him. Well, maybe not Jackie Bradley Jr. (35 wRC+, .107 ISO vs RHP this year). However, each of the other seven batters in the projected lineup exceed a 100 wRC+ vs RHP with only Christian Yelich (.121) below a .150 ISO. Omar Narvaez (124 wRC+, .159 ISO) and Luis Urias (112 wRC+, .194 ISO) are each within $100 of $2.5K on FanDuel tonight. Dan Vogelbach (105 wRC+, .174 ISO) costs exactly that much on DraftKings.

If you’re looking for a few cheap bats to fill out your otherwise expensive lineups, the team you should probably be looking at is the Milwaukee Brewers. The park in Cleveland may actually be a small run environment upgrade and while Eli Morgan has occasionally shown some strikeout upside, that’s been inconsistent with problems in his contact profile persisting. While 12 of his 15 home runs were surrendered in his first eight starts, he’s still allowed 11 barrels (12.8%) over his last six starts. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him as well. The thing daily fantasy players really love here is that no single batter in the projected Milwaukee lineup (with a DH tonight) exceeds $4K on DraftKings or $3.5K on FanDuel and the Brewers currently have a 4.82 implied run line that’s sixth best on a 26 team board. If you’re looking for the ultimate punt power play, Dan Vogelsmash…er, Vogelbach (107 wRC+, .187 ISO vs RHP this year) costs no more than $2.3K on either site. At the top of the order, Christian Yelich (120 wRC+, .126 ISO) has remained productive despite the lack of power. In fact, Yelich and Jackie Bradley Jr. (36 wRC+, .109 ISO) are the only two projected batters in this lineup below a .163 ISO vs RHP this season. There’s lots of value across the board here, especially with Omar Narvaez (126 wRC+, .163 ISO) projected to bat cleanup for just $2.4K on FanDuel.

While the Pirates hope the trade landing them Bryse Wilson will pay off in the long term, the more immediate beneficiaries may be left-handed Milwaukee bats. Wilson has really done nothing very well through eight starts, but the 15 K% and 10.2% Barrels/BBE are probably what have done the most damage. A 4.86 DRA is his only estimator below five, though all are a bit below his 5.88 ERA (.345 BABIP). While batters from either side of the plate have had great success against Wilson, Statcast drops RHBs over 50 points to a league average .313 xwOBA, but confirms LHBs above a .380 wOBA and xwOBA. In a neutral run environment, the Brewers are one of four teams above five implied runs and may potentially be the least valued of the four by players due to their 81 wRC+ vs RHP this year. However, that doesn’t signal that tonight’s particular lineup is bereft of talent, as only one of eight projected starters is below a .164 ISO vs RHP this year or 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. Rowdy Tellez (86 wRC+, .186 ISO vs RHP) costs $3K or less on either site and leads the lineup with a 172 wRC+ since being picked up by the Brewers. Omar Narvaez (128 wRC+, .165 ISO) is affordably priced behind the plate as well.

There are just three players in the projected lineup for the Brewers above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP since last season and nobody exceeding a .180 ISO. Never the less, this may be an interesting spot for Milwaukee bats. The game will take place in one of the most power friendly parks in the league (if not the most power friendly), where they will face Vladimir Gutierrez, who has struck out just six of 40 batters with a 6.3 SwStr% and five walks. Despite striking out 21 of 67 batters at AAA this year, the 25 year-old does not project as a highly valued prospect (40 Future Value grade via Fangraphs). While Statcast does agree that he’s shut down RHBs so far (.245 wOBA, .231 xwOBA), it takes significant issue with LHBs having just a .214 wOBA against him. Statcast pushes that mark up to a .345 xwOBA. Daniel Vogelbach (108 wRC+, .180 ISO vs RHP since 2020) and Omar Narvaez (117 wRC+, .165 ISO) each cost just $2.2K on FanDuel and project to hit in the top half of the lineup. Added incentive to attack the Cincinnati pitching staff here is that the bullpen for the Reds owns a major league worst 6.04 ERA over the last 30 days with a 4.89 FIP that’s third worst in baseball over that span. At 4.77 implied runs, the Milwaukee offense borders the line between top and middle of the board.

Aaron Brooks will be your primary or bulk pitcher. The performance has been poor no matter what you want to label his role tonight (9.9 K-BB%, 6.06 ERA, 5.04 SIERA, 6.84 DRA, .354 xwOBA). The Seattle offense has remained competent no matter what it’s looked like this year. Despite not having a lot of power, each of the first seven batters in the projected lineup for the Mariners reaches at least a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year. LHBs exceed a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Brooks this year with batters from either side of the plate above a .220 ISO. Shed Long (100 wRC+, .160 ISO vs RHP) would certainly be an interesting bat in the leadoff spot. He has a 208 wRC+ with a lineup leading 50% hard hit rate over the last week. J.P. Crawford (110 wRC+, .202 ISO) is quietly asserting himself in the upper part of this lineup. Omar Narvaez (129 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Dan Vogelbach (133 wRC+, .272 ISO) are potent middle to lower part of the order bats for an offense implied for 5.34 runs tonight, seventh best on the board.

It’s not as easy as usual finding pitchers to stack against on the night slate, as there are a number of good pitchers throwing tonight and not a ton of matchups that stand out. One lineup to consider stacking is the Mariners, who have still managed to swing the bat decently well (106 wRC+ over last 30 days) despite trading a few of their best bats. Though Chris Bassitt has a 3.80 ERA, his estimators indicate regression as he owns a 4.81 xFIP and 4.75 SIERA. Bassitt has also really struggled of late; he’s posted a 4.50 ERA, 5.24 xFIP and 5.29 SIERA with an 8.6% K-BB over the past 30 days. Daniel Vogelbach (.407 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Domingo Santana (.367), JP Crawford (.343), Mac Williamson (.331), Kyle Seager (.320), Omar Narvaez (.307) and Mallex Smith (.280) are all options tonight vs. Bassitt. Smith started the year a bit slow but has slightly improved with a .303 xwOBA over the past month; he projects to leadoff tonight. All Mariners bats are available at an affordable $4.4k or less on Draftkings tonight, on Fanduel they will be priced $3.7k and lower. The Mariners have a 4.41 implied total for this matchup.

Zach Davies is a low strikeout (15.2%) contact manager (87.2 mph aEV, 6.0% Barrels/BBE), but less so lately. He’s allowed four HRs over his last three starts and is up to a .357 xwOBA over the last month. Estimators are mostly two runs above his 3.06 ERA due to an 81 LOB% and 10.6 HR/FB. Despite trading off some their power assets, the Seattle offense has remained competent and although implied for just 4.3 runs tonight, still has something to offer daily fantasy players from the left-hand side (.347 wOBA, .341 xwOBA vs Davies last calendar year). Dan Vogelbach (170 wRC+, .313 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has been a monster, but more quietly, J.P. Crawford (151 wRC+, .222 ISO) has been a pleasant surprise and Omar Narvaez (139 wRC+, .191 ISO) is a middle of the order bat at a tough position. Each of the latter two still cost below $3K on FanDuel.