Pablo Lopez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

One-third of the board costing $9K or higher are covered in today’s PlateIQ Live Blog, but that doesn’t include all of tonight’s top projected values. In fact, four of the top five projected point per dollar values on FanDuel cost less than $9K, but the question is whether you would consider using them on a single pitcher site or not. The top projected value on either site is Zach Logue, who would absolutely not consider at all on his own merits. His 6.35 ERA isn’t even above all estimators, ranging from a 5.34 SIERA to a 6.44 DRA. With only 28% of his contact on the ground 10 of 19 barrels (12.5%) have left the yard with a 6.9 K-BB%. That’s all pretty atrocious, but he’s also potentially in the top spot on the board. Despite the predominantly right-handed lineup (.395 wOBA. .383 xwOBA against Logue), the Marlins have the worst splits on the board in terms of wRC+ (70) and strikeout rate (28.2%) against LHP. In addition, Oakland is one of the most pitcher friendly environments in the league, while Logue costs $6.3K or less on either site. The only additional negative here is a hitter friendly umpiring assignment behind the plate. Enough to consider on a single pitcher site? Probably still a better SP2 in GPPs.

Opposing Logue, a first inning grand slam ensured that Pablo Lopez would not pick up a Quality Start for the seventh time in eight starts, having gone past the fifth inning in just two of those. The odd thing is that his velocity has actually increased over the last month, yet he’s allowed 18 runs over his last 18 innings with just a 14.8 K% and nine barrels (12.9%). While regression was expected from his early season league ERA leadership, he’s now come completely full circle to the point where his 3.83 ERA exceeds every estimator except for a 3.90 xERA. No estimator is more than a quarter run below actual results though. The Oakland offense (MLB worst -0.58 wCH/C, 82 wRC+ and 23.6 K% vs RHP) may be just what the doctor ordered for Lopez’s changeup (35.8%, -1.1 RV/100, 37.5 Whiff%, wOBA & xwOBA below .290). In the $8K range, Lopez projects as the third best value on either site and is probably the pitcher you’re more apt to consider on a single pitcher site.

Speaking of high upside matchups in negative run environments, perhaps Corey Kluber broke out of a BABIP fueled slump last time out against the Yankees (two runs over six innings with eight strikeouts). He had previously allowed 23 runs over 28.2 innings (.375 BABIP, 56.9 LOB%) with a 16.2 K-BB% that’s exactly two points below his 18.2% season rate. A league average strikeout rate (21.7%) with an elite walk rate (3.5%) along with a contact profile that includes a 17.2 IFFB%, 87.2 mph EV and 6.1% Barrels/BBE allow him to consistently produce six inning efforts while rarely going beyond 90 pitches. A 28.9 Z-O-Swing% ensures that batters aren’t making their best contact. Never the less, a .311 BABIP and 68.2 LOB% suggest he’s run a bit bad (Tampa Bay defense .276 BABIP allowed) with his 4.33 ERA more than a third of a run above estimators that don’t reach four. A 92 wRC+ and 27.0 K% for the Angels against RHP this season help make Kluber a top five projected value on either site for within $300 of $8K on either site, where the largest concern (aside from BABIP) is workload.

Other than that, you’re probably opting for higher priced arms on FanDuel, but from the cheaper SP2 bin on DraftKings, Aaron Civale struck out a season high 10 of 22 batters last time out. It was the Tigers, but it was also interesting to note that his velocity has been up in both starts back from the IL so far. He has a healthy 17.9 K-BB% this season, but with some contact issues (8.9% Barrels/BBE) that have led to a 4.27 xERA, which is the only estimator he has above four. His 5.63 ERA is the further product of a .341 BABIP and 59.4 LOB% and should regress. He gets a park upgrade in San Diego against an offense that’s probably better than their season numbers against RHP (102 wRC+, 21.7 K%), but only costs $7K.

J.T. Brubaker is coming off his best start of the season, shutting out the Red Sox on two hits over seven innings, striking out seven. It was his seventh Quality Start in his last 15 outings. Brubaker has struck out batters at an above average rate (23.2%), walking them at an average one (8.6%) with last year’s home run issues seemingly non-existent (9.9 HR/FB, 7.3% Barrels/BBE). His 4.19 ERA sits in the higher end of his estimators, ranging from a 3.68 FIP to a 4.24 xERA. The Braves are a dangerous offense, but one with some upside for pitchers (105 wRC+, 25.1 K%, 15.7 HR/FB vs RHP) with a predominantly right-handed lineup in a park that suppresses RH power. Brubaker costs just $200 more than Civale.

On a nine game Monday night slate, Pablo Lopez costs exactly $10K on FanDuel and is the only pitcher to reach that cost on either site, while Kevin Gausman is the only other pitcher above $9K on both sites. That’s not to say that it’s a poor pitching board, but it does lack superstar arms. Lopez has allowed at least four runs in every other start dating back over his last six, but has just a 3.93 ERA and 3.76 xFIP over that span. Not up to his usual standards, but still fine. His season results are much more impressive (18.2 K-BB%). Even with 9.0% Barrels/BBE, his worst estimator is just a 3.55 xERA. His lowest, a 3.26 DRA. In a difficult matchup in St Louis (105 wRC+, 20.2 K%), Lopez is just the seventh best projected pitcher on the board by PlateIQ (though projections are fluid and subject to change), making him essentially more of a middle of the board pitcher than a top of the board one tonight. Gausman is in an equally difficult spot. For more on tonight's top of the board pitchers, check out Monday's PlateIQ Live Blog.

Both sites are starting about a half hour earlier than usual tonight in order to include six games instead of five on their main slates. We have three clear top of the board pitchers with Pablo Lopez the only pitcher cracking the $10K mark on both sites, Chris Bassitt costing that much only on FanDuel and then Max Fried the only other pitcher on the board above $9K on both sites. Lopez has a 17.6 K-BB% at home that’s two points higher than his road mark and a 9.8 HR/FB that’s 6.3 points lower than his road mark for his career. Overall this year, he allowed a single run in his first start and none since, striking out 23 of 85 batters with just four walks. He has allowed five barrels (8.6%), which have all stayed in the yard, but with just 29.3% of his contact at a 95 mph EV or above. Estimators are well above his 0.39 ERA, but none even come close to three (2.80 DRA). Early this afternoon, he carries the second highest point total projection (PlateIQ), but is expected to be only the third or fourth most popular pitcher. If these numbers hold true, and they are fluid throughout the day, Lopez would be a great GPP play at home against the Diamondbacks (81 wRC+, .26.4 K% vs RHP).

Outside of about a single inning to open his third start, Bassitt, as expected, has been a great addition to the Met staff. His 20.5 K-BB% would be a season high. While he’s allowed five barrels (8.6%), an 84.1 mph EV would be a career best too. Estimators are tightly packed between a 2.91 DRA and 3.26 xFIP, about a run above his ERA (.232 BABIP, 84.9 LOB%). He’s tonight’s top projected pitcher overall and currently expected to be the most popular against an Atlanta offense that has just a 99 wRC+ and 15.6 K-BB% vs RHP this season. He also pitches in a very pitcher friendly park and may get an additional weather boost with cool temperatures and a light wind blowing inward. Umpiring assignments are not yet available.

Max Fried will enjoy the same park conditions as Bassitt on the other side of this matchup. Through four starts, the numbers look about what they usually do. Fried strikes out a few more than average (22.3%) with lots of weak (84.3 mph EV) ground balls (55.1%). Just one of his four barrels (5.7%) has left the yard, but he’s also walked just one and that was in his first start. This has all estimators outside a 3.26 DRA below his 3.00 ERA. The Mets own a 105 wRC+ and 22.8 K% vs LHP early on. Fried is third on the board in terms of total point projection, but is currently projected to be the second most popular pitcher on FD, third on DK. Fried is a fine pitcher, but he along with Bassitt are more of a higher floor type pitcher than high ceiling ones.

While the overall quality of pitching may not be as strong as last night on Wednesday’s eight game slate, there are still several viable arms, some of whom may be weather aided in spots like Minnesota and Washington tonight, where it’s cold with inward blowing winds. Both Shohei Ohtani ($10.5K) and Pablo Lopez ($10.4K) eclipse $10K on FanDuel, while no pitcher does so on DraftKings. Joe Ryan is the only other pitcher on the board above $9K on both sites. Michael Wacha costs $9.4K on DraftKings, but might be best to forget we even saw that. Ohtani has struck out 21 of the 39 Astros he’s faced alone. His one bad start was in Texas (six runs over 3.1 innings), though he still struck out five of 20 and has walked just four batters this year. With a 44.1 K% (16.5 SwStr%), his worst estimator is a 2.68 DRA. The Guardians take a lot of pitches and strike out just 21.1% of the time this season against RHP, but Patrick Sandoval ran up nine last night, so it’s far from impossible. Ohtani is essentially tied atop the board, using PlateIQ projecitons, in terms of both overall point total and ownership. Remember though, that these numbers are fluid throughout the day and may change.

Lopez absolutely rolling with a 21.9 K-BB% and while a 0.52 ERA is obviously a fluke (.227 BABIP, 92.3 LOB%), as none of his four Barrels (9.1%) have left the yard, his worst estimator is a 3.01 DRA. The Nationals have a league average strikeout rate, but just an 86 wRC+ vs RHP this season and we already mentioned the weather boost, despite a park downgrade for Lopez here. Lopez does not currently project as a top overall arm tonight, but if that keeps his ownership below 10%, it’s could be a boon for his backers in GPPs tonight.

Ryan has jumped out to a great start in 2022, not only by allowing just three runs over 16 innings, but with a 26.7 K% that could still be on the way up (14.3 SwStr%). He doesn’t generate many ground balls (29.7%), but has managed contact well (87.6 mph EV). Estimators are pretty tightly grouped between a 3.51 xERA and 4.05 xFIP. The Tigers own an 88 wRC+ and 23.3 K% vs RHP. Ryan won’t only have the cold weather and winds backing him, but potentially a very favorable umpiring situation as well. Ryan is a top three projected arm on DraftKings, where he’s currently expected to be fairly popular, but much less so on FanDuel.

Pablo Lopez has increased his K-BB from 11.3% to 14.5% to 17.1% in his three seasons in the majors. Of course, that still only amounts to 227.1 innings, which is a single season for a workhorse pitcher, but he’s also increased his velocity around half a mile per hour each season too with 49.3% of his contact on the ground and just an 87.1 mph EV. While the Rays boast a quality offense, according to PlateIQ, six batters in the projected lineup have struck out at least 27% of the time against RHP since last season and that’s not even counting the pitcher’s spot. Lopez has a 17.2 K-BB% and 7.4 HR/FB at home since 2019 with an xFIP at 3.00. In a high upside spot, Lopez costs less than $8K on either site. In fact, there are only five pitchers cheaper on DraftKings.

Pablo Lopez has a 14.5 K-BB% this season and a 14.4 K-BB% on the road since last season. The difference would seem to be in a 15.3 HR/FB this season overall, but a 23.4 HR/FB on the road since last season. It’s the park, right? But his .354 xwOBA on the road this year is well above his overall mark of .315, so the contact seems to be poor as well. Either way, he’s really been struggling lately. Although he allowed just three runs last time out, he did so in five innings with four walks and just one strikeout. It was the second time in three starts he’d walked four with fewer strikeouts. His velocity has been down about a mile per hour over his last few starts too. This is a significant park downgrade for Lopez and although the Philadelphia lineup is depleted, it still has Bryce Harper (114 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP) against a pitcher who has surrendered a .353 wOBA to LHBs this year (.269 to RHBs). Injuries also offer an opportunity for to roster cheaper bats in perhaps Cesar Hernandez (103 wRC+, .151 ISO) and Brad Miller (122 wRC+, .318 ISO), both potentially in the top half of the order tonight. The latter has a 200 wRC+ with a 50% hard hit rate over the last week. At 5.3 implied runs, the Phillies find themselves just inside the top 10 offenses on the board tonight.

Though he’s facing a very good Nationals’ lineup, Pablo Lopez has a number of things working in his favor this afternoon. Lopez returned from the IL on 8-26 aft and initially had to shake off some rust, but looked good in his last outing vs. the D-Backs, allowing 3 earned over 6 IP with no walks and 6 Ks. He’s at home this afternoon in pitcher’s haven Marlins Park, where he’s been much better so far in his career: Lopez has a 3.41 ERA / 3.56 FIP, 1.16 WHIP and .285 xwOBA allowed in home starts compared to a 6.44 ERA / 5.62 FIP, 1.28 WHIP and .344 xwOBA allowed in away starts over 160 and 2/3 total innings. Lopez has also been better versus righties (15.6% K-BB, .293 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB compared to 13% K-BB, .326 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB over his career) and he’ll face 6 righties compared to just 2 lefties in the Nationals’ order today. The best part about Lopez is his price, as he comes in at a dirt cheap $6.2k on Draftkings and $7.2k on Fanduel. He makes for a nice GPP SP2 play on Draftkings.

Pablo Lopez has a 4.75 ERA that’s more than a half run above all estimators due to 66.9 LOB%. His .305 xwOBA supports the estimators as well. The real difference though is in Lopez’s home/road splits. Miami might be the most negative run environment in baseball, but a nearly five run split in his ERA and over .100 points of wOBA is insane. His FIP carries a near four run difference and his xFIP, which normalizes HR rates is even over a run lower at home. Lopez has a .256 xwOBA at home this season that’s tied for the second best mark on the board. He has a 20.1 K-BB% in Miami this year as opposed to 14% on the road and has allowed just two of his 12 HRs here despite facing 37 more batters. Now that we’ve gotten all that established, let’s get to the matchup. The Brewers have a 17.6 HR/FB vs RHP with Mike Moustakas expected back in the lineup tonight. That’s where the good news ends. The Brewers also have a 25 K% with just a 96 wRC+ vs RHP and if the Marlins didn’t do enough damage to Christian Yelich, Miami has broken him again. Moustakas for Yelich hardly seems like a fair trade and provides about as significant a boost to the pitcher as a single bat omission can. Lopez costs a very reasonable $7.1 K on FanDuel (a bit more on DraftKings - $8.4K) in what now seems like a fairly favorable spot with quite a bit of upside.

Pablo Lopez has struck out 10 of 39 AAA batters in two rehab starts, allowing two ERs in 9.1 IP, working through 25 batters last time out. This gives us some confidence to expect a reasonable workload despite not pitching in the majors since mid-June. His 23.3 K%, 4.09 SIERA, 3.34 DRA and .291 xwOBA are all second best marks on the board tonight. He also pitches in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. He’s allowed just 10 runs total in seven home starts this year. While the Reds have had a lot of turnover and are actually an above average offense against RHP since the break by wRC+ (108), the same is not true by peripherals (16.2 K-BB%). Cincinnati is also without key left-handed bats with Winker & Votto ILed. This is significant because this is now a lineup lacking quality and quantity from that side of the plate and Lopez has a large platoon split. RHBs have just a .251 wOBA (.263 xwOBA) against him over the last calendar year. Lopez is a quality arm at the fifth lowest price tag on DraftKings ($7.4) in a favorable return spot.