Pablo Sandoval Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

After missing all of 2018 due to injury, Jimmy Nelson made his debut earlier this month on 6/5, giving up 4 earned runs in just 3 innings of work. He walked a batter per inning, averaged just 92.5 MPH on his fastball (down from 94.5 MPH in 2017) and certainly looked like a pitcher that is trying to shake off rust after a long absence. Though Oracle Park is certainly not hitter-friendly, Giants bats are very affordable across the industry and are an option for those that are paying up for Sale and/or Strasburg on the afternoon slate. Brandon Belt (.387 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Buster Posey (.367), Evan Longoria (.326), Joe Panik (.315) and Brandon Crawford (.311) are all solid options in the Giants’ projected order. Pablo Sandoval (.379) is also a great option if he can crack the starting lineup. Belt has been the Giants’ hottest hitter with a .407 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Sandoval with a .393 mark. Mike Yastrzemski projects to bat 2nd, but has just a .242 xwOBA vs. RHP on the year. All Giants’ bats are available for $3.8k or less on Draftkings with the exception of Belt, who is $4.2k.

The Giants haven’t been a good offense this year, but they are priced incredibly low for a nice matchup versus David Hess and they get a park upgrade going from Oracle to Camden Yards. Hess has a 6.71 ERA / 5.69 xFIP / 5.15 SIERA with a 52.8% FB rate, 11.1% K-BB and just an 8.4% SwStr. He also has a .404 xwOBA allowed, 16% barrel rate and 91.4% aEV, all among the worst in the league among starting pitchers. Brandon Belt (.376 xwOBA vs. RHP this year, $4k on DK), Pablo Sandoval (.373, $4.1k), Buster Posey (.363, $3.2k), Joe Panik (.334, $3.6k), Brandon Crawford (.320, $3.2k) and Evan Longoria (.318, $3.8k) are all great value options in the Giants’ order. Mike Yastrzemski (.257, $3.5k) will bat 2nd and had a 160 wRC+ in AAA this year before getting called up. The Orioles have a 5.6 implied line vs. Hess and will likely be very highly-owned on this slate in all formats given the bargain prices and high total.

Stephen Strasburg has struck out at least eight in six innings or better in six of his seven starts. His 15 SwStr% is a career high by more than two full points. Ironically usage of his four-seamer (31.2%) and slider (1.7%) are down in favor of curves (28%) and sinkers (19.4%), but the whiff rate on curve (44.2%) and four-seamer (29.5%) are up about 10 percentage points without any significant spin rate changes and an actual one mph loss in velocity. Due to these adjustments in pitch usage, his ground ball rate (50.9%) has hit 50% for the first time since 2013 and only other time in his career. His 22.6 Z-O-Swing% is best on the board and Caleb Smith is the only other pitcher on the board with more than one start, who betters his 81.8 Z-Contact%. And among those who have made a single start, only Noah Syndergaard comes within 20 points of his .243 xwOBA. The Brewers have a 18.9 HR/FB vs RHP and 22.0 HR/FB at home in a dangerous park, but they also have a 26.5 K% vs RHP. This might give Strasburg the highest projected strikeout rate on the board tonight. Despite the difficult spot, this also a high upside one for a pitcher showing some of the most upside of his career.

Players looking for some cheap bats may want to turn their eyes towards Toronto this evening. After a hot start, Trent Thornton has struggled against some of the better offenses he’s faced recently. San Francisco is not one of those, but there are some alarming trends in his profile, including a 90.5 Z-Contact% that’s worst on the board. He’s allowed a 29.4 LD%, 19 HR/FB, 92.3 mph aEV and 15.7% Barrels/BBE. He’s had particular problems with LHBs (.414 wOBA, 52 Hard%, 32 GB%). Brandon Belt (114 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has been “freed” from a terrible park in San Francisco tonight with a strong park upgrade here. Pablo Sandoval (121 wRC+, .198 ISO) has shown surprising competency from the left side of the plate over the last year. Even Steven Duggar (75 wRC+, .164 ISO) and Gerardo Parra (101 wRC+, .106 ISO) may have some value here at low cost atop the lineup. Implied for just over four runs, Giants’ bats are not projected to be particularly popular tonight and could provide a path to some of the more expensive bats in better projected offenses tonight.

Felix Hernandez's Opening Day start (5.1 IP - 2 H - 0 R - 2 BB - 4 K - 7.7 Hard%) was a great source of optimism for a pitcher who sorely needed it after a down and injury plagued couple of seasons. Both pitch selection and velocity were similar to last season, so it's not immediately obvious what was different in his success against Cleveland. He gets a park and opponent upgrade with a trip to San Francisco. Sudden slugger Joe Panik (113 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since the start of 2017) and Brandon Belt (132 wRC+, .250 ISO), both who have dealt with injury issues of their own last season, could pose problems at the top of the lineup against a pitcher who has major issues with LHBs via both wOBA (.363) and xwOBA (.362) last season. He was more Felix-like against RHBs (23.8 K%, .317 wOBA). While it's going to take quite a bit more for Felix to earn the trust of DFS players back, this is not a terrible spot on a small slate and there's not much of a reason to attack him beyond the first two batters in the order in a difficult park. Believe it or not, among remaining confirmed batters, Pablo Sandoval has the highest ISO against RHP since last season (.170).

Dickey for his career has a FIP of 4.48 in March/April, compared to an average FIP of 4.16 May and beyond. Sandoval will be facing Dickey today and enjoyed a 4.44 wKN/C in 2015. This stat tells us the total runs above average per 100 pitches that a hitter contributed against knuckleballs last year. The fact that Sandoval was beaten out by Shaw in spring training will help this contrarian pick stay under the radar. Brock Holt would have been a tad bit more sneaky if it was not for his grand slam yesterday, but his 1.27 wKN/C is still a reason to use the scrappy Red Sox second baseman today.