Patrick Reed Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Patrick Reed – With smaller fields and tighter pricing we typically see a spread in ownership, so it’s no surprise to see all these guys in the same range as Reed come in around 10-15%. I am going with Reed over the normal public favorites of Cantlay and Finau and it all comes down to win equity. While Cantlay and Finau have one before on Tour, they seem to be more of the “DFS Darlings” than the closers we sought after. Finau is likely to score more than Cantlay on any given week but he can also have his ups and downs. With Reed, I get a proven winner (Masters/WGCs/Playoff events etc.) and a guy with a great all-around game, including a solid around-the-green game which I mentioned above. He’s also worked on his length and can be really good on faster greens like we have here.

With smaller fields and tighter pricing we typically see a spread in ownership, so it’s no surprise to see all these guys in the same range as Reed come in around 10-15%. I am going with Reed over the normal public favorites of Cantlay and Finau and it all comes down to win equity. While Cantlay and Finau have one before on Tour, they seem to be more of the “DFS Darlings” than the closers we sought after. Finau is likely to score more than Cantlay on any given week but he can also have his ups and downs. With Reed, I get a proven winner (Masters/WGCs/Playoff events etc.) and a guy with a great all-around game, including a solid around-the-green game which I mentioned above. He’s also worked on his length and can be really good on faster greens like we have here.

With smaller fields and tighter pricing we typically see a spread in ownership, so it’s no surprise to see all these guys in the same range as Reed come in around 10-15%. I am going with Reed over the normal public favorites of Cantlay and Finau and it all comes down to win equity. While Cantlay and Finau have one before on Tour, they seem to be more of the “DFS Darlings” than the closers we sought after. Finau is likely to score more than Cantlay on any given week but he can also have his ups and downs. With Reed, I get a proven winner (Masters/WGCs/Playoff events etc.) and a guy with a great all-around game, including a solid around-the-green game which I mentioned above. He’s also worked on his length and can be really good on faster greens like we have here.

We all have those golfers/players in DFS that we never get right. One of those for me is Reed. I just never seem to be on him the right weeks. However, he was one of my favorite fades last week and he actually missed the cut. Perhaps myself and Patrick are finally on the same page. This is a good bounce-back spot for Reed, even though there hasn't been anything great about his ball striking in the first two events back from the break. He still has six top 10 finishes in his last 10 events and he has finishes of T30, T5, and T11 at this event in the last four years.

I never seem to be on the right side of Reed. I’ll target him in the midst of a hot streak and he’ll miss the cut, then I’ll fade him the next week and he’ll win. While that can be extremely frustrating, I have to avoid my bias against him. He’s played some tremendous golf this season, posting top 10 finishes in five of nine events since November (including a win at the WGC-Mexico). He tends to play well at the same courses and has finished T15 (2016) and T33 (2015) in his last two appearances here. He has an amazing short game and can get hot with his irons at any time.

As you will soon see, I like a lot of the chalk in the mid-range this week. And as you know, I focus most of my attention on a single lineup that I enter into single-entry tournaments and small-field tournaments. I typically like to build a cash game lineup and then make a few pivots. If you have read this article in the past, then you know how much I love to fade the cheap chalk. I'm taking a little different route this week and will be looking for leverage at the very top. Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, and Webb Simpson are all going to be popular, while Reed is going to be low owned after nearly winning the Tournament of Champions last week. The reason is two-fold -- people hate rooting for Reed and the industry is getting sharper. Even the casual DFS players are diving into strokes gained data these days. Everyone will see that Reed gained nine strokes putting last week and look to fade him at the Sony Open. When it comes to Reed, I care more about the overall form than his week-to-week statistics. He's one of the streakiest golfers on tour and when he's at his best, he can gain strokes in any facet of his game. Check out his finishes over his last eight events: T2, T3, T28, T10, T8, T17, T4, and T15. He has a great track record in Hawaii, he's good in wind, and he has one of the best short games on the planet.

If I had two picks to win this week I would go with Reed and his old pal Spieth. The two aren’t as close as they used to be back in the glory days of the Ryder Cup, but they have very similar games. Their biggest weakness is off the tee, they are streaky with their irons, and they have immaculate short games. Reed won this event back in 2013 and has posted two top 25s in two appearances since. It’s been a down year overall, but he is certainly trending in the right direction. In his last three events, he has gained 6.5, 7.1, and 5.4 strokes on the field with his ball striking. He rarely pops in my model, but rates out as a tremendous value even at his hefty price point. If you want a non-statistical narrative, he would love to finish the season on a high note and become a captain’s pick for the Presidents Cup.