Paul Casey Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

If you haven’t been burned by Casey either of the last two weeks, then good on you. I’ve been burned twice and am ready for some redemption. The missed cut at the Memorial Tournament was largely caused by the eight he made on a par three and the missed cut at the 3M Open was largely caused by his putting. In the four rounds between the two events, he actually gained 7.1 strokes ball striking on the field. We know he’s going to give himself plenty of birdie chances and we don’t have to worry about him missing the cut this week. The fact is that he would be $1,000 more expensive if he played a little better the last two weeks. Perhaps the change to bermuda greens can get him going again.

If you didn't get burned by the eight Casey made on the par three last week, then you ran amazing. The same can be said about not getting burned by DeChambeau's 10 on the par five. I am always willing to throw out a missed cut, especially when it was caused by something as random as a snowman. Casey still managed to battle back and almost make the cut. He's one of the best ball strikers in the world and is ranked second in both strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained on approach in this field. He's also in the top 10 in birdie or better percentage, bogey avoidance, and greens in regulation. His biggest struggles have always been on and around the greens. We don't really have to worry about his scrambling, as he should hit nearly 80% of greens this week. He'll need to gain a little with his putter if he's eventually going to win, but his ball striking should be good enough to get him into contention.

The only possible negative with Casey is that in the last five years, he has only played this event one time and he missed the cut. If you look back another year, he gained 7.9 strokes with his ball striking en route to a T13 at this course. There are only two golfers ranked in the top 10 in this field in both strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained on approach and he’s one of them (Viktor Hovland is the other). I would argue that Casey has the slightly better short game between the two and he’s $1,600 cheaper. I’m not saying to avoid Hovland, just pointing out how cheap Casey is this week. He’s made 17 straight cuts on tour with three top five finishes during that stretch.

Casey is one of the few golfers in this field that decided to sit out the first two tournaments. I haven't heard a reason why, but will be paying close attention to his interviews during the week. As long as I don't hear anything alarming (being too worried about the virus or saying he didn't practice much), I will be overweight on Casey in both cash games and tournaments. He hasn't missed a cut since last year's Masters and has some of the best course history you will find -- T5, second, T5, T17, and second over the last five years. He also rates out well in my stat model as the 13th best fit for the course.

Casey is in the exact same boat as Rose — while the form isn’t elite, the price is just too cheap to ignore. Casey was inside the top 10 for most of last week’s event, but had a brutal final round to drop down to T60 on the leaderboard. It was his worst round (relative to the field) that we have on record in the ShotLink data. I’m willing to overlook one bad round, especially since we saw a bunch of golfers do the same thing at Pebble Beach. Casey is a great total driver of the ball, he is one of the best on tour with his irons, and he is ranked inside the top 30 in bogey avoidance and birdie or better percentage. He nearly won here back in 2015 where he lost in a playoff to James Hahn. He’s never finished outside of the top 50 here, which makes him one of the safest plays on the board. He could be $1,000 more expensive across the industry and I’d still give him consideration.

We haven’t seen Casey in a PGA Tour event for months, but he hasn’t had the time off. In fact, he’s played quite a bit over on the European Tour and even picked up a win at the Porsche European Open. He has followed the win up with three top 20 finishes in his last five events. We often put him in the Charles Howell category of having a lot of good finishes without winning, but he now has three wins worldwide in the last two seasons. He’s great off the tee, solid with his irons, and good around the greens. His putting is hit or miss, but like Cantlay, his game translates well at any course. He doesn’t have any amazing finishes at this event, but he’s a great bet to finish in the top 10 and again, he brings more win equity to the table than most people realize.

If you haven't been following the European Tour, then you may not know that Casey picked up a win at the Porsche European Open early in September. Since then, he's had two top 20 finishes and a missed cut. He played in last week's Zozo Championship (T17) where he was tied for third in greens in regulation. He's one of the best ball strikers on tour and he typically plays his best on difficult tracks. It's no surprise that he loves this course, as you have to keep it in play and avoid all the hazards to contend. He has played here eight times in the last 10 years and has never finished worse than T23. I'd say that's a pretty good track record. He's got the form, he's got the course fit (top nine in this field in all of the key stats except for putting), and he's got the course history.