Mookie Betts is top overall projected bat tonight, while Dustin Pedroia rates as a top value
Arizona is the only offense with two batters in the top five overall (top six on DraftKings) among the RotoGrinders Players Projections. Both Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb stand a good chance of being among top scorers at home tonight against Adam Wainwright, who has allowed a .350+ wOBA to batters from both sides this year. Jose Bautista and Justin Smoak (180 wRC+, .233 ISO vs LHP this year) both project strongly against Wade Miley, who has sacrificed strikeouts for ground balls lately. RHBs have a .358 wOBA against him since last season, but Bautista has just a 35 wRC+ and .063 ISO against LHP this year. Mookie Betts (111 wRC+, .254 ISO vs LHP since 2016) is the top overall projected bat against Adalberto Mejia (RHBs .349 wOBA, 37.1 Hard%). On FanDuel, a minimum priced Max Moroff in the leadoff spot for Pittsburgh against Blake Snell projects at the top potential value (3.88 Pt/$/K), followed by a trio of Boston bats below $3K (Chris Young, Dustin Pedroia, Sam Travis). Pedroia and Travis also share top value honors on DraftKings at just below 2.5 Pt/$/K, followed closely by Jose Bautista (2.47 Pt/$/K).
Only five offenses implied for more than 4.9 runs tonight, but just two below four
Only five teams on a 13 game slate have an implied run line higher than 4.9 runs, though only two teams are currently below four and nobody lower than 3.7 runs. Three offenses (Houston, Boston, and Toronto) have an implied run line between 4.65 and 4.75 and will likely see the highest rates of offensive ownership. Josh Reddick (135 wRC+, .187 ISO vs RHP) should be a very popular value play in the Houston lineup against a below average RHP (Jesse Hahn), who has allowed LHBs a .385 wOBA and 37.6 Hard% since last season. Aaron Judge (221 wRC+, .380 ISO vs LHP) will likely be in as many lineups as players can fit him into against Carlos Rodon (RHBs .342 wOBA last season) in his first start of the year. Just under five runs (4.97) are the Diamondbacks hosting Adam Wainwright. Batters from either side have a wOBA above .350 against him since last season, making Paul Goldschmidt (139 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and Jake Lamb (141 wRC+, .287 ISO vs RHP since 2016) great plays at any ownership rates. Although Tampa Bay is third from the bottom with just a 4.05 implied run line, consider that Ivan Nova has allowed a .321 wOBA to LHBs with just a 10.5 K% against them this year, giving Tampa Bay LHBs Corey Dickerson (155 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP this year) and Logan Morrison (151 wRC+, .349 ISO vs RHP this year) several chances to elevate and punish him. Both have a 150+ wRC+ and 50+ Hard% over the last week.
Arizona and Washington are top three offenses vs ground ball pitchers (121 sOPS+ each)
Arizona and Washington are each tied for second with a 121 sOPS+ against ground ball pitching, significant because both are facing good ground ball pitchers tonight. The Nationals face Jake Arrieta, who's 17.8 K-BB% suggests he's been better than his 4.36 ERA, but may be tough to trust in this matchup. Carlos Martinez (27.8 K%, 2.87 ERA, 3.68 SIERA) has been better, but Arizona's success against ground ball pitchers in a difficult park could provide reason for caution. One reason for that success is Paul Goldschmidt, who has raised his fly ball rate 10 points this year, but may just be bouncing back from a 28.8 FB% last season. He leads the team with a 236 sOPS+, but just four HRs against ground ballers this season. On the other end of the spectrum, Baltimore (83 sOPS+) and Miami (79 sOPS+) have been bottom five offenses vs GB pitchers. Joe Biagini has struggled a bit in recent starts, but is very cheap on DraftKings, facing a Baltimore offense with a 16.1 K-BB% vs RHP too. Robert Gsellman has gotten tattooed in two straight starts (14 ERs - 9.1 IP) and hasn't been much better against the Marlins in three starts (14.2 IP - 14 R - 10 ER - 4 HR - 5 BB - 14 K).
Harper and Goldschmidt project as top bats against two first time starters
Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt are projected as tonight's top overall bats, both facing first time starters in Luis Castillo and Mark Leiter. Harper may have the more difficult matchup against Castillo, making his major league debut. He was a bit old for the league at 24, but posted a 21.4 K-BB% at AA this year. Evaluations on his major league future seem to be mixed. Leiter has walked more than he's struck out (-2.4 K-BB%) in 19 major league innings in relief in could have a difficult time in Arizona if that continues. Among those projected for more than eight fantasy points, Yonder Alonso may be the top value on FanDuel (3.74 Pt/$/K). He costs just $3.1K in his battle against Mike Pelfrey (LHBs .368 wOBA since last season). Using the same criteria on DraftKings, Jose Bautista (2.48 Pt/$/K) still costs less than $4K and faces Jakob Junis (41.3% of BBEs 95+ mph EV)
Four of the top five projected batters play at Coors tonight
The RotoGrinders Player Projections like Coors bats tonight with Charlie Blackmon, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, and Nolan Arenado all among the top five overall point projections along with Aaron Judge at home against Ricky Nolasco. Colorado and the Yankees are the two offenses with implied run lines above six tonight with Arizona a bit lower a 5.44 currently. The pitching at Coors does have the talent to foil plans. Jeff Hoffman has a 28.4 K% and 2.25 ERA with an 11.3 SwStr% and 3.37 SIERA that are only slightly less optimistic. Taijuan Walker had a strong April before a poor May led to a DL stint. He bounced back with a strong start last time out and is a talented pitcher when healthy. Among players projected for at least seven DK points, Wilmer Flores (vs Rich Hill) and Miguel Sano (vs David Holmberg) project as top values (both at 2.54 Pt/$/K). Sano costs just $3.9K! Projections for FanDuel like Robbie Grossman (3.74 Pt/$/K) from the same lineup and Jedd Gyorko (3.69 Pt/$/K) as top values.
Pair of Diamondbacks project best overall, but Blue Jay duo may hold most value tonight
The RotoGrinders Player Projections project both Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb for better than 15 points on FanDuel tonight with David Peralta joining them among the top five overall bats tonight with Charlie Blackmon and Aaron Judge in between. Colorado is the only other team with at least two players showing up in the top 10 as Nolan Arrenado makes it four Coors bats in total tonight. None of the top 10 should be a surprise. All are big names in nice spots tonight. Kevin Pillar projects for the most value (3.97 Pt/$/K) on FanDuel, likely to lead off in Texas against Nick Martinez for $2.6K. Among batters projected for at least seven DK points, Toronto teammate Jose Bautista may be the top value (2.46 Pt/$/K) for just under $4K. Players who really don't mind punting an outfielder in the leadoff spot should note that Adam Engel projects for 2.8 Pt/$/K for just $2.1K against Ervin Santana.
Half the teams on a full slate are implied for at least 4.8 runs tonight
Two offenses are implied for more than six runs tonight and neither of them are involved in the game at Coors. In all, half of the 30 teams tonight have a run line higher than 4.8 with just seven below 4.4. This is likely to spread out offensive choices quite a bit, especially with Zack Greinke on the mound in Colorado. With Chris Sale the only dominant and maybe even the only trustable arm on the mound tonight, players may have a difficult time paying up for a lot of those expensive bats and may be looking to go full punt in a spot or two if they can find a cheap bat near the top of almost any lineup tonight (Adam Engel is leading off for the White Sox for $2.3K or less). Aaron Judge (163 wRC+, .317 ISO career vs RHP) is back home facing a rookie, who started the season in the bullpen. Paul Godlschmidt (138 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and Jake Lamb (139 wRC+, .290 ISO vs RHP since 2016) are at Coors. Brian Dozier (158 wRC+, .314 ISO vs LHP since 2016) and Miguel Sano (130 wRC+, .264 ISO vs LHP since 2016) get to face Derek Holland (RHBs .360 wOBA, 37.6 Hard% since last year). Eric Thames (155 wRC+, .333 ISO vs RHP) and Travis Shaw (136 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP this year) face Chad Kuhl (RHBs .392 wOBA since last year). Those are just a few of the most powerful one-two combos on tonight's slate. Perhaps that's the more optimal way to go rather than full stacks tonight.
Cubs (FanDuel) and Cardinals (DraftKings) project as top values tonight
Tonight's top projected players according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections that Arizona is the only team that even has two players show up in the top 10 projected highest point totals. That team is Arizona with Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb facing Jordan Zimmermann with an ERA and estimators all well above five. Mookie Betts, atop another well projected lineup, and Charlie Blackmon, in a great spot against a pitcher who struggles against LHBs help fill out the top four projected point totals tonight. Those looking to save salary may find themselves liking the Cubs with Miguel Montero (4.26 PT/$/K) and Jon Jay (3.8 PT/$/K) on FanDuel. The projections like a pair of affordable Cardinals for value on DraftKings with Matt Carpenter (2.4 Pt/$/K) projecting for the most overall point among top potential values and Jedd Gyorko (2.32 Pt/$/K).
Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi project as top values on FanDuel
Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts and Paul Goldschmidt are the top projected point accumulators according to tonight's RotoGrinders Player Projections. Goldschmidt is the only one in a lineup with an implied run line below five runs or even 5.9. The difficulty here is that Buck Farmer has actually been quite good both in AAA (17.3 K-BB%) and in his two major league starts this year (16 Ks - 46 BF) without allowing a run in 12 innings. Bryce Harper is facing the knuckleball. In 20 career PAs against Dickey, he's struck out seven times without a HR and a 76.6 mph aEV on just three BBEs. It's not a lot of information, but there aren't many knuckleballs in the league. Mookie Betts (136 wRC+,.205 ISO vs RHP since 2016) makes tremendous sense against rookie Ben Lively though and even appears more affordably priced than normal tonight ($4.6K/$3.7K). Teammate Andrew Benintendi compliments as a potential top value on FanDuel (3.9 Pt/$/K) for less than $3K, though Betts (3.73 Pt/$/K) isn't far behind along with Robinson Cano (3.79 Pt/$/K) against Kyle Gibson. DraftKings likes a lot of sub-$3K bats for value, but sees Mark Trumbo (2.53 Pt/$/K) generating the most points per dollar for those projected for at least seven points tonight.
Bryce Harper is the top bat and a strong value according to RotoGrinders Player Projections
Washington may be the lowest (5.08) of the seven offenses implied for five runs or more by Vegas tonight, but the RotoGrinders Player Projections favor Nationals' bats above any other team tonight with Bryce Harper the top overall projected bat tonight with Ryan Zimmermann, Daniel Murphy and Trea Turner appearing in the top 10 as well. Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb both appear in the top five at home against Zach Davies as well. Considering just the top 10, Bryce Harper is considered so strong against Andrew Cashner (LHBs .364 wOBA, 37.1 Hard% since last season) that he also projects as the second best value among that group on DraftKings even at $5.3K (Mookie Betts is first). On FanDuel, Eric Thames (3.8 Pt/$/K) projects as a strong overall bat and the top value in Arizona against Randall Delgado. At $4.5K, Harper still projects for the best value among the top five overall projected bats as well.