Paulo Orlando Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Ross Detwiler owns a 5.15 ERA on the season that is accompanied with a 4.97 SIERA and 29.8% hard hit rate allowed. His splits aren’t massive like a lot of other left-handed pitchers, but he does still fare worse against right-handed batters as we would expect. We should be able to get a lot of the Kansas City bats fairly low-owned tonight, as they are never an exciting offense to stack, and there are so many other options out there on this slate. If looking for a sneaky tournament stack, the Royals are the team to target. Whit Merrifield (130 wRC+, .370 wOBA vs LHP), Paulo Orlando (.156 ISO vs LHP), Salvador Perez (.233 ISO vs LHP), Cheslor Cuthbert (128 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .160 ISO vs LHP), and Kendrys Morales (125 wRC+, .362 wOBA, .214 ISO vs LHP) are the options to consider here.

Carlos Rodon has pitched between 5.2 and seven innings in all but three starts (just once less than five) and has struck out between five and eight in 17 of 23 starts. That’s remarkable consistency, but not a ton of upside for a cost above $8K. He’s also topped out at six strikeouts over his last five starts and even that just once. He still struggles with RHBs (.344 wOBA with 17 HRs this season) and the Royals do top the order with several bats who hit LHP well. The interesting thing is that we can almost split them in half by site. Morales (126 wRC+, .207 ISO vs LHP this season) and Cain (159 wRC+, .232 ISO vs LHP since last season) should be looked at on Fanduel for less than $3.5K, while Orlando (118 wRC+, .165 ISO vs LHP this season) and Cuthbert (137 wRC+, .170 ISO vs LHP this season) cost $3K or less on DraftKings.

Reason #1: Orlando will be leading off for the Royals and facing a pitcher, Hector Santiago, who grades as an average pitcher against the steal even though he is a LHP (a -0.01 on the RotoGrinders stolen base tool). Additionally, Orlando has a speed rating on FanGraphs of 6.5, faster than Lorenzo Cain's speed rating of 6.3. Reason #2: Orlando has a wRC+ of 152 versus LHP. Reason #3: Hector Santiago is giving up hard contact in the air to RHBs, giving up a hard hit percentage of 37%, paired with a 51% fly ball percentage.

Daniel Norris has started just four games this season, striking out just three of 22 Mariners in his only start over the last month, but allowing just one run through five innings. He has not gone more than five innings in any of those starts with a 7.2 SwStr% that does not support his above average 23.5 K% and an 84.7 LOB% despite a .389 BABIP. The Royals are the worst road offense in baseball (15.9 K-BB%, 27.9 Hard%) and have an 18.4 K-BB% with just a 5.1 HR/FB over the last week, so it wouldn’t be a complete shock if he held his own in this outing. Four of the top five bats in the order tonight do hit LHP well, while we may be able to consider Lorenzo Cain (166 wRC+, .243 ISO) and Paulo Orlando (162 wRC+, .207 ISO) lefty mashers this season. Kendrys Morales (121 wRC+, .233 ISO vs LHP this season) has also done well from the right side of the plate. While Cheslor Cuthbert (129 wRC+, .167 ISO vs LHP this season) may have some value in the same price range on DK where all are below $4K, though he's the highest priced of the group on FD ($3.4K).

Jose Quintana is a quality pitcher but his strand rate (81.1%) is 4.5 points above his previous career best, while his SwStr rate is plummeting (7.8% now). It’s well below average and his career rate now, though his K% is up (22.3% a career high). These issues may be significant enough to take him out of play for more than $9K in a marginal spot in Kansas City. While this is still not a pitcher players should normally attack as the Royals are projected for just 3.8 runs, there may be some value in the top three spots filled by RHBs, who have hit LHP well (all 150+ wRC+ this season) at a low cost ($3.5K or below on DK, $3K or below on FD). Lorenzo Cain is the top lefty masher here (179 wRC+, .254 ISO) and is not even the most expensive of the three on FanDuel ($2.8K), while Orlando and Cuthbert both add an ISO above .150 to their 150+ wRC+ against LHP this season. Cuthebert even has two HRs in nine PAs against Quintana. It seems a far cry and major improvement over consistently batting Alcides Escobar leadoff the last few years.

Chris Sale struck out 10 batters for the first time this season in his last start, but had just an average 9.3 SwStr% and has been inconsistent in the strikeout department with his BABIP going up and down all season. He also faces a Kansas City offense that strikes out a bit below average vs LHP, but don't walk and have just a 10.0 HR/FB at home. He comes at the second highest cost on either site tonight, but is also probably the second best pitcher and deserves strong consideration. This lineup has a lot of experience facing Sale with seven at 12 PAs or more and four at 37 or more. They have nine career HRs against him, but nobody with an exceptionally high exit velocity (Hosmer 93 mph highest on 10 batted balls). Lorenzo Cain has mauled LHP (165 wRC+, .237 ISO since 2015) and leads the team with three HRs against Sale (seven extra-base hits) in 45 career PAs. He's a reasonable and potentially contrarian play for around $3K on either site. New leadoff man Paulo Orlando (152 wRC+ vs LHP this season) is another consideration for exactly $3K on either site. He has a HR against Sale in just 12 opportunities. Cheslor Cuthbert (146 wRC+, .197 ISO vs LHP this season) costs just $2.6K on either site.

Cole Hamels has a career high 83.2 LOB% that's kept his 2.87 ERA well below his SIERA (4.16), xFIP (4.10) and FIP (4.27). In additiona, he's been incredibly inconsistent from start to start in terms of strikeouts (four or less in three of his last four starts), walks (at least three in three of his last four starts) and HRs (11 of his 16 over a seven game stretch in May and June). There are enough strong pitchers on the mound tonight that he should be an easy enough fade at a high cost and the Royals striking out just 17.7% vs LHP. He's not someone we'd normally think about attacking either, but the Royals have four RHPs with a wRC+ above 120 against LHP this season, all costing $3.6K or less on either site with three of them carrying an ISO above .200 vs southpaws as well. Those are Kendrys Morales (129 wRC+, .239 ISO), Cheslor Cuthbert (124 wRC+, .214 ISO), Paulo Orlando (121 wRC+, .091 ISO) and Brett Eibner (156 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP), who bats eighth, but costs the minimum on FanDuel.

Kansas City bats offer a unique opportunity tonight. None of them stand out as particularly strong, but they offer some salary relief as they were priced for Noah Syndgaard on DraftKings, but get Bartolo Colon, who has little platoon split, with batters having a wOBA right around .300 against him from either side, but his SwStr is down to 5.5% this season. Whit Merrifield (114 wRC+ vs RHP) costs just $3K with Paulo Orlando (136 wRC+ vs RHP this season) costs just $2.5K. The top bats, Sal Perez (146 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP this season) and Eric Hosmer (157 wRC+, .184 ISO vs RHP this season) are a bit more at $3.5K. FanDuel does not adjust as much for matchups, giving players less of an little edge there.

Drew Smyly has allowed multiple HRs in three of his last four starts with a significant drop in his K% and SwStr%, though still above average over the last month (21.9 K%, 10.3 SwStr%). He's allowed multiple HRs in five starts overall, but most against high power offenses, and none in his other five starts. Kansas City, both the team and the park, might provide a nice bounce back spot for him here as it's a haven for fly ball pitchers and they have just an 80 wRC+ vs LHP, including a 24.0 Hard%. They are now missing several key bats in this lineup (although many were left-handed) and this should be a spot that favors Smyly's skill set at a slightly reduced price on DraftKings ($8.8K). Lorenzo Cain (179 wRC+, .231 ISO vs LHP this season) is the lefty-masher in this lineup if you believe Smyly might continue to struggle. Paulo Orlando (166 wRC+ vs LHP this season) could be an interesting value play for $2.8K on either site.

Miguel Gonzalez struck out eight of these Royals in his last start, but his 7.5 SwStr% was actually his lowest mark of the season and he'd struck out just 11 of 76 batters previously. Kansas City is generally a good park for a fly ball pitcher, but Gonzalez won't have the KC defense behind him and will even be lacking his normal OF defense with Eaton sitting. Gonzalez has a career 0.96 GB/FB with a 12.0 HR/FB. This is not a great park for power and we'll have to keep an eye on the forecast. Eric Hosmer has a -42 wRC+ over the last week, but would be the most obvious bat with a 147 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since last season and Gonzalez's ..353 wOBA vs LHBs since 2015. He doesn't fare much better against RHBs either (.337 wOBA), so we'll be looking at a few of those as well. Salvador Perez (132 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP this season) has been hammering the baseball (292 wRC+ last seven days) and is one tonight's top bats behind the plate for less than $3.5K. Lorenzo Cain (100 wRC+, .115 ISO vs RHP this season) has under-performed, but is heating up (224 wRC+ last seven days). The unknown value bat here might be batting 6th. Paulo Orlando has a 141 wRC+ vs RHP this season and has a 238 wRC+ over the last week. He costs just under $3K.