Pedro Alvarez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Dylan Bundy has the top strikeout rate on the afternoon slate (26.8% with a 14.9 SwStr%) and is at least striking out batters again (15 of his last 51 BF) with a velocity spike back up towards early April rates, even if he has allowed multiple HRs in four of his last five starts now (12 total over that span). He's the highest priced pitcher on the board, but still below $8.5K on either site, despite his 13.2% Barrels/BBE being highest for the entire day. The White Sox have just recently moved into the bottom spot on the board (4.11 implied runs) in the last few minutes and the lineup reflects that beyond the first few batters. The first four may actually make an interesting stack due to Bundy's troubles against LHBs (.349 wOBA, .359 xwOBA, 38.7 Hard% since last season) and Jose Abreu (145 wRC+, .387 xwOBA, .249 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) being just all-around good. Yoan Moncada (138 wRC+, .241 ISO), Yolmer Sanchez (114 wRC+, .174 ISO) and Daniel Palka (126 wRC+, .306 ISO) all have upside for $4K or less. The rest of the lineup is incredibly weak and should boost Bundy's line considerably. The White Sox start Lucas Giolito, who has struck out more than four just once this season, while walking at least that many in four of nine starts. He has a -3.2 K-BB%, but a traditional platoon split that has seen him perform at league average (.310 wOBA, 2.7 K-BB%, 27.3 Hard%) against right-handed batters, almost entirely due to contact management. This may present some problems for Orioles, at least as far as rostering a predominantly right-handed lineup. Chris Davis (72 wRC+, .174 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Pedro Alvarez (96 wRC+, .211 ISO), Chance Sisco (117 wRC+, .187 ISO, .305 xwOBA) and Jace Peterson (72 wRC+, .100 ISO) are your choices from that side, all batting lower in the order.

Ian Kennedy has allowed more than two runs just twice and failed to go six innings in just three of his seven starts this year, but none the less, the Baltimore Orioles have a top five implied run line tonight (5.17) against a fly ball pitcher prone to long ball issues in a park that favors power. Kennedy's 7.9 SwStr%, 90 mph aEV, 12.2% Barrels/BBE, .364 xwOBA and 4.10 SIERA may paint a better picture than his 2.92 ERA. While no bat in the Baltimore lineup is above a 120 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year (Manny Machado 119 and Chance Sisco 118 come closest), only Jace Peterson is below a .165 ISO with Machado, Sisco, Adam Jones, Chris Davis and Pedro Alvarez all between a .198 and .214 ISO. Kennedy has allowed a .327 wOBA (.353 xwOBA), 37.7 Hard% and 40.4 GB% to RHBs since last season. Against lefties, it gets even worse: .340 wOBA, .379 xwOBA, 45.4 Hard%, 30.3 GB%. There's likely to be a home run or two. Peterson (77 wRC+, .095 ISO) and maybe Mark Trumbo (77 wRC+, .166 ISO) would seem the least likely candidates. All others would appear somewhere between a decent and significant threat.

Jaime Barria was the seventh graded prospect in the Angels' system via Fangraphs this pre-season with a 45 Future Value with the upside of a number four starter despite reaching the majors at the age of 21. Command seems to be his strength. Despite walking and striking out four each of his first 32 major league batters, his 7.8 BB% in 12.1 AAA innings this year is 50% higher than any previous rate at any previous stop in the organization. They've held him below 80 pitches in each of his two starts (which only got him through two innings last time somehow). Any attraction here would be because he's minimally priced in a high upside spot (tonight's Baltimore lineup has a 24.3 combined K% since last season against RHP), though a high priced stack along with Sean Manaea might be the only case that's of use. While there are only three bats in the Baltimore lineup (Jace Peterson, Mark Trumbo, Anthony Santandar) below a 95 wRC+ and/or a .190 ISO vs RHP since last year, Manny Machado (114 wRC+, .216 ISO) and Trey Mancini (117 wRC+, .202 ISO) are the coveted bats here. Pedro Alvarez (114 wRC+, .202 ISO) has a 283 wRC+ (58.3 Hard%) over the last week and could be a high upside salary saver in GPPs. Chance Sisco (149 wRC+, .233 ISO) has an xwOBA 64 points below his actual one against RHP.

Perhaps Buck Showalter is on to something, figuring Chris Davis's ability to take a walk could lead to a high OBP. He has a career .341 wOBA against right-handed pitching. A 31.9 K% as well against them is less likely to be an issue with nobody on base. However, he's also doing this for the second time this season against a RHP with reverse splits and may be doing DFS players a significant favor tonight. Charlie Morton has even spoken about how much the Astros like strikeouts. He obliged by raising his strikeout rate to 32.8% against LHBs last season. RHBs had a .345 wOBA against him (nearly 100 points higher), but with a 56.1 GB% and 0.4 Hard-Soft%. With Davis at the top of the lineup, that's almost at least one strikeout for Morton, while additional lefties Colby Rasmus and Pedro Alvarez are by no measure contact hitters. Although he'll face just three LHBs tonight, he's looking at three high strikeout LHBs against Baltimore.

According to the RotoGrinders Player Projections, Aaron Judge and Mike Trout are the top pieces on the board from an offensive standpoint and it's almost impossible to argue against that. Judge is on fire (376 wRC+, six HRs last seven days) and is facing a pitcher allowing 38.4% hard contact with a .386 wOBA to RHBs. Trout (191 wRC+, .358 ISO vs RHP) faces Reynaldo Lopez in Chicago. He's allowed RHBs just a 25 Hard% this season, but has struck out just four of his last 112 batters. Along with Gary Sanchez and Brett Gardner, the Yankees place three batters among the top 10 overall projections, the only offense with multiple batters at the top on either site. Several Kansas City bats (Brandon Moss, Mike Moustakas, Melky Cabrera) are priced below $3K on FanDuel and considered great values, all between 3.79 and 3.99 Pt/$/K. Jedd Gyorko (2.91 Pt/$/K) and Pedro Alvarez (2.91 Pt/$/K) are projected as top DraftKings values.

Chad Kuhl is a walk machine, who struggles against LHBs. While he has a 27.3 K% over the last month, that's backed by a 7.5 SwStr% and won't last. He has a hard hit rate above 40% in four of his last six starts. Over this span, he has walked 16.9% of LHBs, while the ones who have made contact, have a 50 Hard% and just a 31 GB%. In a park that punishes RH power, but plays fairly towards LH power, players should probably consider any LH bat thrown out there against him and the Orioles are certainly going to challenge that notion. They have three LHBs in the lineup tonight, none of which are named Chris Davis. Pedro Alvarez hits cleanup tonight though and does have a 120 wRC+ and .259 ISO against RHP since last season. Chance Sisco is a cheap catcher who has already homered twice in his first 14 major league plate appearances. Anthony Santander is a switch hitter with just 59 plate appearances above A-ball before getting the call. He has struck out in eight of 20 major league PAs and seems to be over-matched at this point.

Dexter Fowler (328 wRC+, 42.1 Hard%, three HRs) is one of two batters above a .300 wRC+ over the last week and the only one with more than 10 PAs. He faces Ivan Nova in Pittsburgh, a more generous park to LHBs. Nova has allowed 24 HRs over his last 18 starts. Pedro Alvarez (312 wRC+, 50 Hard%, one HR) must want to stick in the majors. He's smoked the ball in 10 PAs since returning. He does have a 124 wRC+ vs RHP since last year and faces Alex Cobb (RHBs 37.2 Hard%) in the very friendly confines of Baltimore (if he's in the lineup). Josh Donaldson (299 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%, five HRs) and Matt Olson (214 wRC+, 38.5 Hard%, five HRs) tie for the league lead in HRs over the last week. Donaldson travels to the Bronx to against HR prone Masahiro Tanaka (32 HRs allowed), while Olson remains at home against Nick Martinez (LHBs .357 wOBA) and is an interesting pivot off of Paul Goldschmidt for the contrarian player at the same price. Will Middlebrooks (19 wRC+, 83.3 Hard%) is the only batter to make hard contact on more than two-thirds of batted balls over the last week, but with only 10 PAs, four of which he's struck out in. He has hit five of six batted balls hard though.

While not considered a major surprise, Pedro Alvarez's absence here is interesting as Buck Showalter elects to DH Mark Trumbo and go for defense in this game with Michael Bourn roaming the Outfield. Alvarez does have the highest exit velocity against the opposing pitcher since last season, his 105 mph aEV against Stroman came only four batted balls though (one HR). Stroman was the only pitcher in baseball to keep the ball on the ground more than 60% of the time this season. Matt Wieters has had the most success against him with two HRs and three extra-base hits in 15 career PAs, but with just an 83.1 mph aEV on 11 batted balls since last season.

Aaron Sanchez has had old control issues resurface with at least three walks in four of his last six starts and more walks than strikeouts in two of his last four. His ground ball rate is just 48.5% with a 34.6 Hard% since these issues began, which is not a good thing with Baltimore (107 wRC+, 17.0 HR/FB vs RHP) coming to town. In fact, with LHBs having 11 HRs against him this season and four of his 14 total allowed over his last five starts, GPP players could consider a couple of cheap LHBs on DraftKings tonight. Chris Davis (141 wRC+, .312 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Pedro Alvarez (119 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP since 2015) both cost less than $4K on DraftKings, while Davis costs just $3K on FanDuel and has homered three times off Sanchez in 22 PAs.

Shelby Miller has consistently proven that he is just not good at baseball. He has allowed four earned runs in three straight starts, and he has not made it past 5 1/3 innings in any of them. Opponents are hitting him hard with reckless abandon, as he owns a 36.3% hard hit rate and a 5.15 SIERA this season. Miller has never been a big strikeout guy, but his strikeout rate is all the way down to 14.9% this year. His walk rate is also too high at 9.1%. His numbers are bad against everyone, but he is particularly poor against left-handed batters, who have a 39.6% hard hit rate and a .420 wOBA against him on the year. Chris Davis (.278 ISO vs RHP) is a very strong play here, and the Orioles stack is certainly an excellent option. Hyun-Soo Kim (125 wRC+, .361 wOBA vs RHP), Manny Machado (129 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .259 ISO vs RHP), Mark Trumbo (134 wRC+ .374 wOBA, .285 ISO vs RHP), and Adam Jones (.203 ISO vs RHP) can round out a nice Orioles stack if attacking Miller in tournaments. Pedro Alvarez (121 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .268 ISO) has hit right-handed pitching extremely well and is an interesting tournamnet pivot from Davis on DraftKings, since we cannot play the two together due to positional eligibility.