Phil Hughes Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

It's not often that you find the Reds (4.65 implied runs) on the top quarter of the board outside home (or Coors), but Phil Hughes will do that. Batters from either side have an xwOBA above .370 with a hard hit rate above 40% against him since last year. Eugenio Suarez (112 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP since last season) continues to be minimum priced on DraftKings, where the entire lineup is low to moderately priced on DraftKings. Jesse Winker (160 wRC+, .401 xwOBA, .196 ISO) is the value play here. Joey Votto (162 wRC+, .438 ISO, .237 ISO) gets the obligatory reminder. Scooter Gennett (129 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Scott Schebler (102 wRC+, .267 ISO) are useful bats here as well.

Five batters have homered twice against the pitcher they are facing tonight. Two (Hunter Pence & Brandon Belt vs Bronson Arroyo) deal with such outdated information that Statcast has not recorded a single BBE for any of these matchups. Arroyo missed the previous two seasons, but don't worry, he's still giving up bombs (seven this year). A power suppressing park in San Francisco is the biggest concern, but no major league park can hold Arroyo when he's on. Pence does only have five extra-base hits in 45 PAs against Arroyo and has just a .119 ISO vs RHP since last year to go along with his -4 wRC+ overall over the last week. George Springer (96.9 mph aEV on five BBEs) and Carlos Correa (101.6 mph aEV on seven BBEs) have both manhandled Michael Pineda in the past, but the talented right-hander is finally putting it all together with a 3.12 to go along with his 27.5 K-BB% this year. Nolan Arenado has also homered twice against a pitcher who has missed each of the last two seasons, but both of those against Hyun-Jin Ryu came in a single game in LA a few weeks ago. Among batters with at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs against tonight's pitcher (and there are just a handful), Jose Abreu has the highest aEV (93.8 mph, 10 BBEs) against Phil Hughes. He's without a HR and has just three extra-base hits and seven strikeouts in 29 career PAs in this matchup.

Dustin Pedroia is tonight's BvP champion with a slate leading five HRs against the pitcher he is facing tonight. In all, he has eight extra-base hits in 43 PAs against Phil Hughes with a 93 mph aEV on six BBE and just four strikeouts on a rivalry that goes back to Hughes' Yankees days. While both have declined, Hughes has seen a steeper drop and certainly still struggles with RHBs (.359 wOBA since 2015). Carlos Gonzalez has homered four times against Zack Greinke, but has struck out eight times in 39 PAs and has just an 88.3 mph aEV in 14 recorded BBE. Greinke has been pitching well with reduced velocity, while Gonzalez has been the one to struggle this year (35 wRC+). He's hitting more balls on the ground (52%) with a BABIP 100 points below his career average, but his peripherals otherwise appear to be in line. Trevor Story and Mark Reynolds have both homered three times against Greinke, but neither has an aEV exceeding 90 mph. Among those with at least 10 Statcast recorded BBE against tonight's opponent, Kendrys Morales has a phenomenal 103.5 mph aEV against Chris Archer (10 BBE) with two HRs (23 PA). Going back to Coors, Nolan Arenado has an impressive 94 mph aEV against Greinke (17 BBE), but without a HR (five doubles) in 36 PAs.

Phil Hughes is coming off a poor performance in his previous outing against the Cleveland Indians, allowing six runs, four earned, in just 3.1 innings pitched. Tonight; he'll toe the rubber against an equally imposing Texas Rangers lineup on the road at the hitter-friendly confines of Globe-Life Park. Hughes has been up to his typical low strikeout (16.7% K%) ways thus far in the 2017 campaign while allowing a high 44.2% fly ball rate and an astronomical 51.2% hard hit rate. All of this is a recipe for disaster against a Rangers squad that is littered with quality hitters up and down their lineup, though they do seem to lack players that stand out individually for their elite plate skills. This makes them better utilized as a stack than looking for the potential of one-off upside in tournaments, especially with a questionable bullpen behind Hughes. The core of any Rangers stack should be focused around the trio of Carlos Gomez (129 wRC+, .363 wOBA, .255 ISO vs RHP since 2016), Nomar Mazara (113 wRC+, .344 wOBA, .195 ISO vs RHP since 2016), and Rougned Odor (107 wRC+, .336 wOBA, .247 ISO vs RHP since 2016), while hitters like Mike Napoli (.204 ISO vs RHP), Robinson Chirinos (130 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .299 ISO vs RHP since 2016), and Joey Gallo (.277 ISO vs RHP since 2016) are better utilized as fill-ins around the core, or even as one-offs if deciding against the full stack and building multiple lineups. This is due to their range of outcomes being much more variable, leading to a higher boom or bust potential on a nightly basis.

One of the top places to look for home run potential comes to us from Target Field, where Josh Tomlin and Phil Hughes are set to face off against each other in a matchup that features two of the worst pitchers last season in terms of home runs allowed. Hughes has posted a 1.68 HR/9 each of the past two seasons and doesn't seem to have the ability anymore to turn that trend around, evidenced by his low 13.1% strikeout in 2016. He does allow a higher fly ball rate (45.8%) and more home runs (1.94 HR/9) to right-handed batters but allows a higher wOBA to lefties (.412). In other words, hitters from both sides of the plate are firmly in play as one-offs or part of a stack in tournaments. Edwin Encarnacion is off to a slow start this season but has still traditionally crushed fly ball pitchers and had a 132 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .264 ISO versus right-handed pitching in 2016, elevating him to a top option in this Indians lineup. The other power bat to focus in on from this Cleveland squad is Carlos Santana (142 wRC+, .384 wOBA, .278 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), but unfortunately, both can't be rostered in the same lineup on FanDuel, though they each work perfectly well as one-offs given their power upside. However, on DraftKings, it is certainly possible and viable to roster both in the same lineup if looking to attack the home run tendencies of Phil Hughes. A stack rounded out by Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, and Jose Ramirez may not be the worst idea, though there seem to be more optimal situations to target from an upside perspective on Tuesday's slate.

The Rays will now be facing Phil Hughes instead of Kyle Gibson, but that may play into their favor as Hughes is more of a fly ball pitcher who has allowed a .340+ wOBA and 31+ Hard% to batters from both sides since last season. Minnesota isn't very friendly to LH power, but Hughes has still allowed 8 HRs to LHBs at home since last season. Corey Dickerson (116 wRC+, .309 ISO vs RHP this season) bats 6th, but may still be the best LH bat in this lineup. Evan Longoria (109 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP this year) has shown more power against RHP in 2016 and is the most expensive batter in this lineup on FanDuel ($3.7K). Brad Miller (109 wRC+, .197 ISO vs RHP this season) is the most expensive bat on DraftKings ($4K), but there's always value in a SS with a decent bat in the two hole. You can add Guyer, Souza, and Casali as Rays batters with an ISO between .175 and .205 vs RHP this season. The Rays aren't even close to the top projected lineup tonight (4.38), but could do some damage to a low strikeout, fly ball prone pitcher tonight.

Franklin Gutierrez generally only faces LHP, but with Martin on the shelf, he is getting an opportunity to face Phil Hughes tonight. Hughes's 45% FB% has led to a problematic 2.00 HR/9 allowed to right-handed batters. Until he reduces his fly balls allowed, players like Nelson Cruz and Franklin Gutierrez will continue to be viable plays.

Phil Hughes (4.79 ERA, 4.36 SIERA) has allowed 2.10 HR/9 to RHB this season. With the 2nd highest projected run total for tonight (4.90), we can expect them to be one of the top owned stacks, outside of the Cubs. Miguel Cabrera has a .401 wOBA and .192 ISO vs. RHP and has also hit 6 HRs against Hughes in his career. Cabrera is the most expensive bat on FanDuel in Detroit, which opens up the need for some value with so many elite pitchings options also available. J.D. Martinez is also a strong option as he has been hitting well over his last six games. Martinez had 2 HRs last night and has a .356 wOBA vs. RHP.

There’s a pretty good chance that balls will be flying into the stands tonight, as fly-ball pitcher Phil Hughes will take on the Astros in Minute Maid Park. In what was considered to be one of his better seasons, Hughes owned a 14.4K% and 13.5HR/FB% in 2015. The Astro bats make for very appealing targets tonight, starting with Carlos Correa. In 165 carrer AB’s, Correa boasts a .385 wOBA and 147 wRC+ at home against RHP. Consider Correa the top SS option tonight. Jose Altuve (.325 wOBA vs RHP at home) is a solid cash game option who is always a threat for a steal or two. George Springer (.220 ISO - .408 wOBA vs RHP at home through 46 AB’s at home) hit a monster shot last night, and will look to go yard again tonight. Finally, Colby Rasmus has hit 7 HR’s this season and owns a .307 ISO - .385 wOBA mark against RHP, making him a high upside target against Hughes. The Astros own a Vegas projected run total of over 5, so don’t be shy in your exposure to them this evening.