Preston Tucker Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Despite the absence of Joey Votto, the Cincinnati Reds still have one of the top run lines on the board (4.91) at home against the Giants. Casey Kelly makes the spot start and has not made a major league start in the last two calendar years, facing just 24 major league batters in relief since last season. He's faced around 150 batters from each side of the plate for his career, around half of those innings coming in 2012. Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA against him between .365 and .370. The most interesting development here might be Billy Hamilton (65 wRC+, .071 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) at a low price. He may only need to reach base once to pay off and probably stands a better chance of that than normal considering how strongly this offense is projected. Jose Peraza (87 wRC+, .106 ISO) also only draws value from his low cost and great lineup spot in this matchup. Scooter Gennett (133 wRC+, .200 ISO), Eugenio Suarez (119 wRC+, .223 ISO) and even Preston Tucker (114 wRC+, .192 ISO) are higher quality bats. If you're looking for a punt catcher, you might be able to do worse than Curt Casali (144 wRC+, .222 ISO) for just $3K on DraftKings too.

The Reds @ Tigers has both teams sitting around 4.5 implied runs and there should be some offensive interest in this game. Though LHBs have been a bit better against Mike Fiers this season (.337 wOBA vs .308), his splits seem to have a lot of variance year to year or even month to month. Since last season, batters from either side are within two points of a .340 wOBA and 40 GB%, which is supported by little separation with his xwOBA for either side. That bodes fine for the entire top half of the Cincinnati order: Jose Peraza (95 wRC+, .096 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) as an affordable leadoff bat and then Scooter Gennett (128 wRC+, .194 ISO), Joey Votto (167 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Eugenio Suarez (124 wRC+, .234 ISO). If players don't mind dropping down a bit lower on an abbreviated slate, Preston Tucker (110 wRC+, .194 ISO), Curt Casali (126 wRC+, .190 ISO) and Mason Williams (144 wRC+ last seven days) are all very inexpensive as well. On the other side, while Sal Romano has allowed LHBs a .359 wOBA, 40 Hard% and 42.6 GB% since last season, the Tigers don't have a single LHB above both a 100 wRC+ and .180 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Niko Goodrum (89 wRC+, .217 ISO) and Jeimer Candelario (100 wRC+, .176 ISO) can be considered, but the latter has a -13 wRC+ and 35.3 K% in 17 PAs over the last week.

The big news would seem to be Freddie Freeman's (161 wRC+, .432 xwOBA, .279 ISO vs RHP since 2017) presence in the lineup tonight after it was feared he had suffered another major hand injury after a HBP last night. It's difficult to decide what to do with that. Perhaps a look at his projected ownership later (available to premium subscribers via the Projected Ownership page or LineupHQ) will better inform the thought process for players. If it looks as if there is some hesitancy due to potential effects, higher exposure may be worth the risk. The opposite may also be true if ownership rates project to be normally high. Matt Harvey has not excelled against RHBs since last season (.335 wOBA, 52.6 GB%), but has really been lit up by LHBs (.421 wOBA, .418 xwOBA, 37.1 Hard%, 31.9 GB%) and that has continued to be true through a few starts in 2018. He's gone exactly five innings in each start (four ERs in each of the last two) with a reasonable 19.4 K% (8.7 SwStr%) and 3.81 SIERA, but doesn't really seem to be fooling anybody (46.2 Z-O-Swing%) and continues to get hit hard (.392 xwOBA, 89 mph aEV). The Braves don't have enough RHBs to make this work despite the low cost on DraftKings ($6.3K). The confirmed lineup has just a 17.7 K% vs RHP since last season (PlateIQ). Harvey has been frequently throwing his fastball and slider against batters from either side of the plate this season, mixing in 15% changeups to lefties. Not only has Freeman hit all of those pitches well, but so has Ozzie Albies (98 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP) according to PlateIQ. Albies also has a lineup leading 205 wRC+ (44.4 Hard%) over the last week. His price is climbing, but he also adds a speed dimension against a combination that can be liberally run on. Preston Tucker (163 wRC+, .275 ISO, 46.7 Hard%) also seems like a low cost flyer worth taking ($2.8K DK) with Kevin forecasting a 15 mph sustained wind out towards right.

Vince Velasquez has rebounded after a tough first start to strike out 13 of his last 48 batters, while completing at least six innings with 90+ pitches in each of his last two starts. Just as importantly, he's walked just two. The Braves were the team to beat him up in his first start and it's because of them he still has a 26.7 LD% and .362 BABIP, but his 2.1% Barrels/BBE is actually lowest on the board tonight. He's pitched well, but anyone who's followed his career knows that he can look great in one start and then terrible in another. The Braves have a 108 wRC+ with just an 18.7 K% vs RHP. Their 4.57 implied run line is second highest on the board. Although a small platoon split counting a 2017 in which he dealt with injuries, Velasquez's xwOBA shows no split (.347 - .345). Right-handed batters actually have a slightly higher hard hit rate (36.5%) and lower ground ball rate (38.1%) against him since last season, but his numbers are still around average or slightly worst against lefties. Freddy Freeman (162 wRC+, .281 ISO, .432 xwOBA vs RHP since last season) is a top bat on most nights, never mind a small slate with the second highest implied run line. Preston Tucker (173 wRC+, .289 ISO, 48.3 Hard%) has been a pleasant surprise and still costs less than $3K on DraftKings. Ozzie Albies (99 wRC+, .174 ISO) and Kurt Suzuki (117 wRC+, .213 ISO) both have a wRC+ above 200 over the last week. Atlanta plays a bit more favorable for left-handed hitters. Velasquez may not be a terrible GPP play around the $7K mark if it looks like nobody is going to be on him because of Atlanta's run line.

Aaron Nola has not yet lived up to expectations this season, but did at least complete eight innings and reach 100 pitches last time out. He's now sitting on a double digit walk rate through three starts with just an 7.8 SwStr%, but the quality of contact he's generating has been exceptional (51.1 GB%, 23.1 IFFB%, 85.6 mph aEV). The Braves have just a 9.4 K-BB% and 116 wRC+ vs RHP, but the lean is still towards Nola and his career 24.7 K% over a small sample in 2018, though he's the second most expensive pitcher on the board and the Braves have a 3.78 implied run line that's more middle than bottom of the board tonight. Freddie Freeman (164 wRC+, .285 ISO vs RHP since last season) may be a tad expensive or maybe his price tag makes him the ultimate contrarian play on a night where players should be able to afford him. Preston Tucker (191 wRC+, .333 ISO, 44 Hard% in 36 PAs against RHP this season) costs less than $3K on DraftKings.