R.A. Dickey Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Let's talk about the elephant in the room...and this isn't a crack at Bartolo Colon's weight. FanDuel has decided to honor what may be his last major league start by running a number of contests centered around his age (44) and pricing him at just $44 as well. While it's a fun little sideshow, players have to contemplate if he's actually worth even that cost anymore and the answer might be that he's not. Colon has a 6.63 ERA and 13.6 K% (5.11 SIERA/7.15 DRA) for the season with a 7.99 ERA over the last month and 16 HRs and 41.1 Hard% over his last 11 starts. Perhaps the optimal outcome for anyone rostering him might be leaving the game immediately. In Cleveland, players have to accept the legitimate chance of a negative game score. The Indians have an implied run line of 5.53, which is fourth on the board. The other side, of course, is that rostering Big Sexy allows players to stack Coors and just about any other potent offensive they'd like...even Cleveland, for example. It may have been more interesting if FanDuel gave us R.A. Dickey for $42 (his age) tonight too or instead. Because knuckleballs are sexy too.

Tyler Anderson (84.1 mph) and Dallas Keuchel (84.5 mph) have the lowest average exit velocities on the slate, but Zach Davies (84.9 mph) and R.A. Dickey (85.4 mph) aren't too far behind. In fact, the latter two are the only two with a 95+ mph EV rate below 30% (29.4% for Dickey, 29.6% for Davies), while Davies has the second lowest rate of Barrels/BBE (3.8%) on the board, behind only James Paxton (2.3%). Davies is certainly a quality contact manager (53.1 GB%, 26.1 Hard% over his last 22 starts), but his 15.7 K% does not endear him to daily fantasy players. His 4.66 SIERA and 4.28 DRA might be a bit over-stated, not really taking into account the quality of the contact allowed so much, but the low strikeout rate likely plays a part in his ERA being as high as 3.89 considering everything. Against the Cubs, this might be matchup best altogether avoided tonight. Dickey is a more difficult case. On top of the season long quality contact management, he's allowed a hard hit rate above 30% in just one of his last 14 starts, yet he's been lit up in three straight starts and has allowed at least four ERs in five of his last six. Perhaps he's due for a rebound considering he doesn't really seem to be getting hit all that hard, but knuckleballs aren't all that easy to figure out. Multiple lineup players may want to utilize a Washington stack, though no single batter really stands out. Trea Turner (120 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP) adds a lot of speed, which would make him the top overall play here, though his high cost hardly makes him a great value.

R.A. Dickey has shown that he can still be an hittable pitcher at this stage of his career, allowing exactly four earned runs in two of his last three starts, but he always seems to do just enough, consistently enough, to limit damage that the Atlanta Braves are able to keep utilizing him as an innings eater for their young and eventually up and coming rotation. This year, maintained his low strikeout rate, currently sitting at 17.3% to go along with an 8.5% walk rate. As usual with his knuckleball, Dickey has managed to induce groundballs at a respectable clip (48.5%) and limit hard contact to just 26.0% of the time. With the aforementioned low strikeouts and high walks, it's difficult to imagine Dickey's 3.91 ERA continuing to improve with a 4.81 SIERA on the year. When attacking Dickey with opposing batters, a problem arises with a bit of guesswork in figuring out which individual batters to utilize against him, as the nature of a knuckleball makes at bat outcomes relatively unpredictable. This makes the Texas Rangers more of a stacking option in tournaments Monday night since there should be plenty of baserunners with a decent probability of home runs but difficult to predict where this production will come from. Joey Gallo (126 wRC+, .406 wOBA, .267 ISO vs RHP) and Carlos Gomez (119 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .360 ISO vs RHP) both have massive strikeout rates that should be mitigated by Dickey's inability to induce swings and misses, making them the clear top targets from this Rangers offense, while Elvis Andrus (115 wRC+, .351 wOBA, .171 ISO vs RHP), Robinson Chirinos (114 wRC+, .350 wOBA, .266 ISO vs RHP), Nomar Mazara (.190 ISO vs RHP), Mike Napoli (.221 ISO vs RHP), and Rougned Odor (.229 ISO vs RHP) are more than likely second tier options but are logical members to round out a Rangers stack in tournaments if deciding to deploy that strategy on Monday night's slate.

Chris Sale is easily the top projected pitcher on the slate (RotoGrinders Player Projections), well ahead of Jake Arrieta. His 36 K% is well ahead of any other pitcher on the board, while his 15.2 SwStr% is the top mark as well, though he hasn't seen 15% since his first start back from the break. Much has been made about his struggles against Cleveland in two of his last four starts, but his hard hit rate was above 30% for the first time in a month last time out. While it's difficult to expect anyone to sustain what he was doing earlier in the season, he's still the top pitcher on the board in Toronto (98 wRC+ vs LHP). Luke Weaver struck out 10 Padres in his last start and seems to have solved the hard contact and home run problems that plagued him last season (84.7 mph aEV this year), while striking out 26 of 93 major league batters. He may be the top overall value tonight. The Brewers have just a 9.8 HR/FB over the last week with a 31.4 K% and 25.7 K% vs RHP this year. Rich Hill has the second highest strikeout rate on the board (28.8%). Over his last 11 starts, he has a 26.2 K-BB%, though a 38.1 GB% and 33.1 Hard% that are a bit concerning in Arizona. He's allowed seven HRs over his last five starts, but for the season, his 84.1 mph EV and 28.2% 95+ mph EV are board lows for those with more than six starts. Zack Godley's 26.4 K%, 13.9 SwStr%, 55.6 GB% and 85.3 mph aEV is on the other side of that tough matchup against the Dodgers. He's certainly still worth considering for less than $8.6K (just $7.7K on DraftKings). As mentioned, Jake Arrieta has the second best projection tonight. He hasn't allowed more than two runs since the break. His 15.8 K-BB% and 6.5 Hard-Soft% over that span is good, but not great. His ground ball has been below 40% in half of these eight starts and three of his last four. He has one of the top matchups on the board against a weak hitting Pittsburgh offense with a 25.8 K% over the last week and 87 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Dylan Bundy has struck out 28 of his last 77 batters, but with a 43.5 Hard-Soft% over that span with most of his contact coming through the air. R.A. Dickey has a 15.1 K-BB% and 0.4 Hard-Soft% over his last 14 starts. Weather is a major concern for both though.

No active batter in the majors (10 PA min.) has a wRC+ that exceeds 300 over the last week. The top mark belongs to Corey Dickerson (285 wRC+, 40.9 Hard%, three HRs), while the highest hard hit rate belongs to teammate Lucas Duda (131 wRC+, 69.2 Hard%, three HRs) if we increase the PA limit to 15. They face Jakob Junis (89.1 mph aEV is tied for second highest on the slate). He's actually generated ground ball at a much higher rate against LHBs so far (46.5% to 29.3%), but with no other significant platoon split. Players looking at Tampa Bay bats tonight will have a decision to make, as Logan Morrison has been hot as well (176 wRC+, 31.6 Hard%, three HRs). Rhys Hoskins (279 wRC+, 45.8 Hard%, six HRs) leads the majors in HRs over the last week, along with having the second highest wRC+. If the weather cooperates in Philadelphia, which doesn't look likely at this point, he'll get to face the knuckleball (R.A. Dickey has a 15.1 K-BB% and 0.4 Hard-Soft% over his last 14 starts). Tommy La Stella (274 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, three HRs) has been seeing more opportunities. If he's so lucky tonight, he has a great matchup against Chad Kuhl (LHBs .367 wOBA, 37.9 GB% and 22.8 Hard-Soft% this season). Giancarlo Stanton (259 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, five HRs) deserves an honorable mention. He is scheduled to face Edwin Jackson (86.4 mph aEV, 31.4% 95+ mph EV), who has just a 36.4 GB% against RHBs, but with a 3.5 Hard-Soft%, but that game is also at the mercy of weather conditions.

Just four pitchers with a strikeout rate above 25% tonight. Throw in the top ground ball generator in the league in a high strikeout spot and you probably have the top five pitchers tonight. There's some competition for the top spot in the Daily K Predictor, where Rich Hill (6.95) actually edges out Corey Kluber (6.75) and Luis Severino (6.66). Neither Hill, nor Kluber are in high strikeout spots against the Pirates and Red Sox, while the latter left his last start early with an ankle injury, but has been pronounced fit and without limitations tonight. Kluber's 35.1 K% and 16.3 SwStr% have a large lead on the slate (Severino and HIll 28.4 K%, Zack Godley 14.2 SwStr%) with the RotoGrinders Player Projections giving him a pretty healthy point lead on Severino tonight. Marcus Stroman is the fifth strong consideration here. His 62.6 GB% is almost four points above any other qualfied pitcher. He combines that with a league average strikeout rate and happens to be in one of the highest strikeout upside spots in Tampa Bay tonight (25.7 K% at home, 24.8 K% vs RHP). Luke Weaver may be the sleeper here. He's struck out 13 of 48 batters in two starts, while allowing two HRs. HRs were an issue last year as well, when he had a 19.8 K-BB% in 36 innings. He seemed to squash that issue while maintaining peripherals at AAA this season and is in a great spot against the Padres (25 K% on the road and vs RHP, 28.9 K% over the last week). Honorable mention to R.A. Dickey, who struck out a season high nine in his last start. He has a 15.3 K-BB% and 10.7 SwStr% over his last 13 starts. His 49.2 GB% is his highest since his Mets days with a 28% 95+ mph EV that's second best on the board.

R.A. Dickey has shown that he can still be an extremely hittable pitcher at this stage of his career, coming off of two straight outings allowing exactly four earned runs, but he seems to do just enough, consistently enough, to limit damage that the Atlanta Braves are able to keep utilizing him as an innings eater for their young and eventually up and coming squad. This year, Dickey has seen a small drop in his already low strikeout rate, down to 15.6% to go along with a 9.3% walk rate. As usual with his knuckleball, Dickey has managed to induce groundballs at a respectable clip (47.9%) and limit hard contact to just 26.8% of the time. With the aforementioned low strikeouts and high walks, it's difficult to imagine Dickey's 4.31 ERA continuing to improve with a 5.15 SIERA, and he has allowed a minimum of three runs in 12 of 20 starts this season. When attacking Dickey with opposing batters, a problem arises with a bit of guesswork in figuring out which individual batters to utilize against him, as the nature of a knuckleball makes at bat outcomes relatively unpredictable. This makes the Philadelphia Phillies more of a stack or fade situation in tournaments this afternoon since there should be plenty of baserunners with a high probability of home runs but difficult to predict where said production will come from. Aaron Altherr (150 wRC+, .406 wOBA, .267 ISO vs RHP) and Nick Williams (118 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .192 ISO vs RHP) are the clear top targets from this Phillies offense, while Freddy Galvis (.190 ISO vs RHP), Cesar Hernandez (108 wRC+, .341 wOBA vs RHP), and Tommy Joseph (.177 ISO vs RHP) are more of second tier options but are logical members to round out a Phillies stack in tournaments if deciding to deploy that strategy on Sunday's main slate.

According to Baseball Savant, Alex Gordon is the only batter with more than two HRs against the pitcher he's facing tonight, but it's taken him 85 PAs to generate his three long balls against Justin Verlander, in which he has struck out 26 times with only an 84.7 mph aEV on six Statcast recorded BBEs. Salvador Perez (55 PAs), Eric Hosmer (83 PAs) and Brandon Moss (26 PAs) all have a pair of HRs against Verlander as well, Hosmer with the most notable aEV (94.4 mph), adding five doubles and a triple. In fact, among those with at least eight BBEs recorded by Statcast, only J.D. Martinez has a higher aEV against tonight's pitcher (97 mph aEV against R.A. Dickey).

Kevin Gausman, Ricky Nolasco and R.A. Dickey are pitchers daily fantasy players normally feel comfortable picking on, but the three have allowed a combined two runs over each of their last two outings. While using any of the three in your lineup still seems risky, should players now consider avoiding attacking them? Dickey is the easiest to consider. He throws knuckleballs. There are very few adjustments possible, yet he's allowed a total of two ERs over his last three starts with a 24 K% and 11.6 SwStr% over the last month. The last team to bomb him was Washington (8 ERs, 3 HRs), whom he's facing tonight. Weather and BvP data may be better indicators of his success. There's a little bit of a breeze and late game rain potential in Washington, which shouldn't affect the knuckler too much. In tonight's lineup, only Ryan Zimmermann has homered against Dickey. He's done so twice with a 95.4 mph aEV (four BBEs) in the Statcast era. Ricky Nolasco has shut down the Dodgers (on the road) and Mariners at home, both very negative run environments. He's struck out 12 with just two walks and no runs, though he only really managed contact well against Seattle. Texas is a different kind of park, expected to be hot and humid. The Texas bats are a favorite in today's Trendspotting article today. Kevin Gausman may be a different story. He has struck out 22 of his last 70 batters and has not allowed a run in his last two starts. He’s stopped throwing his slider and started throwing more splitters. A prominent reverse platoon for his career, RHBs have just a .131 wOBA over his last three starts (27.5 K-BB%, 0.0 Hard-Soft%). Curiously, Brooks Baseball has his velocity up a bit in his last start, while Fangraphs does not. Gausman might be the one of these three with some reason to reconsider offensive exposure against tonight.

Despite tossing a gem against an exploitable San Francisco lineup his last time out, R.A. Dickey continues to be an extremely hittable pitcher at this stage of his career, allowing at least five runs in three of his last five starts, including eight just two short starts ago, but he always seems to somehow do just enough, consistently enough, to limit damage that the Atlanta Braves are able to keep utilizing him as an innings eater in the rotation for their young and eventually up and coming squad. This year, Dickey has seen a drastic drop in his already low strikeout rate, down to 14.0% to go along with a 9.4% walk rate. As usual with his knuckleball, Dickey has managed to induce groundballs at a respectable clip (48.7%) and limit hard contact to just 28.2% of the time. With the aforementioned low strikeouts and high walks, it's difficult to imagine Dickey's 4.91 ERA improving with a terrible, but relatively in line, 5.35 SIERA. When attacking Dickey with opposing batters, a problem arises with a bit of guesswork in figuring out which individual batters to utilize against him, as the nature of a knuckleball makes at bat outcomes relatively unpredictable. This makes the Milwaukee Brewers more of an offense to stack or an offense to fade in tournaments this afternoon since there should be plenty of baserunners with a high probability of home runs but it remains difficult to predict where said production will come from. Eric Thames (148 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .318 ISO vs RHP) and Travis Shaw (139 wRC+, .393 wOBA, .268 ISO vs RHP) are the clear top hitters to target in any tournament stack, while Domingo Santana (116 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .174 ISO vs RHP), Hernan Perez (.236 ISO vs RHP), and Keon Broxton (.233 ISO vs RHP) are on a definitively lower tier, though with power upside, making them more of secondary options and are logical fits as hitters to round out a Brewers stack in tournaments opposed to individual one-offs given Dickey's volatility.