Rhys Hoskins Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

On a 12 game slate where no offense runs away from the board in terms of team run totals, despite the game at Coors, we don’t find a lot of separation in terms of projected ownership, though the three offenses at or above five runs (two Coors teams and Philly) are ahead of the pack with the Diamondbacks the only stack currently reaching a 10% ownership projection and just barely (projections are updated throughout the day and subject to change). Simulations do find the Phillies smashing the board a bit more often than any other offense. They do so in a bit more than 13% of current simulations without any other offense reaching double digits. Facing Patrick Corbin in Philly may be like hitting at Coors. The Value% column is where we often see the most separation, though not always with the best teams and that is somewhat the case again tonight…at least on DraftKings, where the Tigers currently project for 50% more value than any other stack. However, on FanDuel, we find that the Phillies are cheap enough to project for the most value on a board where no offense reaches double digits though. For a more in depth breakdown of tonight’s top rated stacks, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Five offenses separate themselves atop an eight game slate tonight with current stacking projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) believing the Phillies will be the most popular stack with the highest implied run line on the board (5.62). In fact, they are the only stack currently projecting for double digit ownership on FanDuel, about 50% more than second most popularly projected stack. The Phillies also smash the slate most often in early simulations, though the Toronto Blue Jays (5.18) project right on their heels. FanDuel value projections give the Phillies a clean sweep. They project for many of the top bats on the board at cheap prices. They project for around 50% more value than the next most valuable stack. DraftKigns value projections find the White Sox and Reds in a virtual tie at the top. Are the Phillies going to be too popular tonight? Check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

On an eight game slate where the Phillies separate themselves from the rest of the board an paying up for pitching is not a necessity, it makes sense that the Phillies are currently projected to be the most popular stack (though stacking projections are frequently updated and do change throughout the day), but with a couple of other top offenses tonight nipping at their tails. Philadelphia stacks do smash the slate in over 18% of simulations without any other stack reaching 11%. They’re also too cheap on FanDuel, making them the runaway top projected value stack there, while they project very closely and slightly behind the opposing offense (Washington) in terms of projected value on DraftKings. The Phillies are a top rated stack tonight, but you’re going to have to check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out which stacks rate better.

They may not be the top offense in the eyes of the sportsbooks, but with one-third of the board reaching five implied runs without anyone conquering five and a half, it’s a bit of a melting pot atop the board tonight and the Phillies with tremendous hitting weather in a great hitting park are one of those offenses in the mix. Current projections suggest they’ll be the most popular stack tonight, but not by very much and only reaching a double digit Own% on DraftKings currently. It is incredibly important to remember that these projections are fluid too and do update throughout the afternoon. Who do current simulations see smashing the slate most often? Again, it’s the Phillies, but again, barely ahead of the Dodgers and not reaching a double digit Smash% on either site. Another category where Philadelphia stacks hold a miniscule lead without reaching double digits is Value% on FanDuel. Where we do finally see some separation from the board is in stacking value projections on DraftKings. At a 21.31 Value%, the Tigers currently project for nearly twice as much value as any other stack on the board. Who are the top rated stacks? Not really any of the teams we’ve talked about here. To find out more, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

We absolutely can not begin our conversation about offense tonight without mentioning a couple of extreme patterns showing up on Weather Edge, particularly in Philadelphia and Cleveland. With the much larger sample (144 games), a temperature of 78 degrees and winds blowing out just under 10 mph to left field in Philadelphia, run scoring generally sees a 14.7% jump, while home runs experience a 23.3% increase. Considering there are two lefties, who have not lived up to loftier expectations, facing a ton of right-handed power in this game, we could be in store for some insanity here, despite batters from either site being below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against batters from either side of the plate since last year. Trea Turner (183 wRC+, .279 ISO vs LHP since last season) is a particularly attractive bat at a particularly high price, while Rhys Hoskins (146 wRC+, .325 ISO) is expected to lead off for the home team. To find out where else conditions could significantly boost offense, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

It just keeps getting worse and worse for Patrick Corbin. He had just an 11.1 K% in five July starts, allowing seven home runs. Now with a single digit K-BB%, he doesn’t have a single estimator below four and a half, but does have a few above five. RHBs have a .379 wOBA (.378 xwOBA) against him this season and he’s projected to face six of those tonight against the Phillies, all above a 100 wRC+ against southpaws this season. However, with Rhys Hoskins expected to return tonight, he’s the only batter in tonight’s projected lineup above a .200 ISO vs LHP this season (148 wRC+, .331 ISO) and also has a 191 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. Should he return, he’d potentially be one of the top bats on the slate, though Jean Segura, J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm and Luke Williams all exceed a 120 wRC+ vs LHP as well, the latter still minimally priced, while all four are $3.1K or less on FanDuel. Considering the Washington bullpen subtracted key pieces and has a 6.43 ERA (5.07 FIP) over the last 30 days too, this is a potential blow up spot for the Phillies in one of the few positive run environments on the board tonight. Despite all this, the Phillies have just a 4.55 implied run line that finds them right in the middle of tonight’s board.

Wade LeBlanc has absolutely no split by wOBA (.357/.358), which Statcast completely confirms against RHBs, but pushes LHBs down 30 points to .327. That shouldn’t matter much. This is a great spot for the Phillies, who have a 151 wRC+ against LHP on this young season. The lineup is absolutely loaded with power against southpaws, the most of which belongs to Bryce Harper (154 wRC+, .315 ISO vs LHP since last year. Much more cheaply (more than $1K less on FanDuel) is Rhys Hoskins (155 wRC+, .264 ISO), who may be the top value on the slate.