Ricky Nolasco Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

James Shields and Ricky Nolasco face each other in a matchup of HR machines in Chicago tonight. Nolasco has allowed 34, while Shields has allowed 26 in just 20 starts. Nolasco hasn't actually allowed a HR in two starts. His 34 HRs are now only sixth most in the majors, after having the lead for a bit of time. Twenty-two of his HRs have been allowed on the road, 13 of them to RHBs, who have a .424 wOBA against him when he pitches away from home this year. This makes a great spot for Jose Abreu (126 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP), who has just a 90 wRC+ over the last week, but with a 52.9 Hard%. Avisail Garcia (120 wRC+, .180 ISO vs RHP) has a 104 wRC+ with a 64.3 Hard% over the last seven days. On the other side, James Shields has a 22.6 K% over his last 10 starts. He’s still allowed 14 HRs over that span, though with just a league average 31.4 Hard%. The Angels will lineup mostly right-handed and actually have the highest implied run line outside of Coors tonight (5.52 runs), but over this 10 game span, Shields has a 24.4 K% and 28.1 Hard% against RHP. Mike Trout (188 wRC+, .345 ISO vs RHP) and Justin Upton (123 wRC+, .242 ISO vs RHP) are certainly top plays tonight, as Kole Calhoun (102 wRC+, .145 ISO vs RHP) may be too with a 126 wRC+ and 75 Hard% (nine of 12 batted balls) over the last week. The rest of the lineup is not populated with a lot of bats who have hit RHP well this year.

The Houston Astros have the highest implied run (6.2) line on the slate tonight at Coors...wait, no, they're just facing James Shields, who has allowed 26 HRs in 19 starts this year. In fact, he's only started two games this year in which he hasn't allowed a HR. While batters from either side have hit the ball hard on about one-third of contact with a ground ball rate below 40%, LHBs have a .394 wOBA with 17 HRs against him compared to .315 to RHBs with nine HRs. This might give players like Josh Reddick (131 wRC+, .189 ISO vs RHP), who has three career HRs in 22 PAs against Shields, and Marwin Gonzalez (147 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP) some extra appeal from the left side of the plate, but the power from the right side is certainly in play as well. Five more teams are projected between 4.9 and 5.55 runs by Vegas, which is a bit light on an 11 game slate and could bunch hitter ownership tonight, but there are enough pitchers that players should clearly want to attack on this slate, including Ricky Nolasco, who is tied for the third most HRs allowed in the majors (34). He has an 89.8 mph aEV this year, while no other pitcher on the board even reaches 89 mph. He also has the displeasure of facing the Indians, albeit in a favorable park at home. The Indians have six projected starters with an ISO above .225 against RHP this year. Without Carlos Santana and Francisco Lindor (both .228), that improves to four batters (Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce and Lonnie Chisenhall) with a .250 or better ISO vs RHP. Brett Anderson is another optimal target. Without ground balls, he loses all effectiveness and his rate has been below 48% in five of his last six starts, which stretches back to early in the season before his standard DL stint. RHBs have a 37.9 GB% and 47.8 Hard% against him over this span (.420 wOBA, 4 HRs). While the Royals are not a proficient offense against LHP (86 wRC+), they do have a few bats who can do damage in Whit Merrifield (125 wRC+, .234 ISO vs LHP), Lorenz Cain (102 wRC+, .212 ISO vs LHP), Salvador Perez (90 wRC+, .203 ISO) and Melky Cabrera (103 wRC+, .191 ISO).

While it's difficult to find strong daily fantasy pitching on tonight's slate, there are a few strong contact managers taking the mound tonight. Unfortunately, those two things don't always correlate. With Jose Urena's scratch, Jose Berrios now has the lowest average exit velocity on the slate (85.3 mph). No other pitcher is even below 86 mph. Andrew Cashner (3.4%) and Berrios (4.6%) are the only pitchers allowing barrels on fewer than five percent of batted balls. Brad Peacock (27.9%) and Berrios (28.7%) are the only two below 30% 95+ mph EV. Take this to mean that Jose Berrios has been the best contact manager on the slate, but also be cautious of attacking Andrew Cashner (86.4 mph aEV, 31.5%). This is not to say that he's completely earned an ERA (3.19) more than two runs below his SIERA (5.39), but players who have foolishly spent all season leading all out assaults on him have likely lost a lot of money. The Mariners do have a 5.19 implied run line in one of the more positive run environments in the league though. Calculated exposure to Seattle bats may still be warranted though, considering their potency against RHP this year. Nelson Cruz (143 wRC+, .266 ISO), Robinson Cano (139 wRC+, .217 ISO) have both been effective and have a hard hit rate above 50% over the last week. Mitch Haniger (130 wRC+, .190 ISO) and Mike Zunino (114 wRC+, .241 ISO) both add a wRC+ at or above 280 with a 45% hard hit rate over the last seven days. On the other end of the spectrum, Ricky Nolasco has a board high 89.8 mph aEV with a 9.3% Barrels/BBE (third) and 40.6% 95+ mph EV (second). He's allowed 34 HRs, second most in the majors, 22 of them to RHBs, who have a .393 wOBA and 40.3 Hard% against him this year. Brett Anderson has the highest rate of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity (46%) with the second highest aEV (88.9 mph) on the board.

Amir Garrett (90.1 mph), Ian Kennedy (89.9 mph), and Ricky Nolasco (89.9 mph) have the highest average exit velocities on the board tonight. Kennedy (11.4%) and Jake Thompson (11%) have the only double digit Barrels/BBE rates. Garrett (41.8%), Nolasco (40.9%) and Matt Moore (40.2%) have allowed the highest rates of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity. Garrett allowed 18 HRs over his last nine starts before being banished to the minors, where he had basically league average peripherals and a 10.1 HR/FB. Two Mets batters tonight have both an above average wRC+ and ISO vs LHP this year. They are Jose Reyes (112 wRC+, .189 ISO) and Travis D'arnaud (150 wRC+, .239 ISO). The latter is a great option at Catcher on FanDuel for just $2.6K. Ian Kennedy multiple HRs in four of last five and has just one strikeout in three of his last four starts. Kansas City is not a power friendly park, but Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario and Brian Dozier all exceed a .200 ISO vs RHP this year. Batters from either side have a 330+ wOBA and 35+ Hard% against Kennedy. Ricky Nolasco's 33 HRs are the third most in the majors. His hard hit rate has been at least 33.3% in six of his last eight starts. Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano each have multiple HRs against him. Jake Thompson is coming off the best start of his career, 6 IP - 1 ER - 7 K in Miami. He allowed five HRs with 5 BBs and 6 Ks in his two previous, one vs Miami. Batters from either side have a .350+ wOBA and 35+ Hard% against him this year. Daniel Murphy (135 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP) is the top play from the Nationals, though a top half of the lineup stack could be potent. Matt Moore has allowed a .444 wOBA (34.1 Hard%) to LHBs. The White Sox have just one (Nick Delmonico) in the lineup. RHBs have a 35% hard hit rate against Moore too though. Jose Abreu has smashed LHP this year (187 wRC+, .282 ISO).

A 10 game night slate has the Texas Rangers on top with a 6.21 implied run line. Jose Urena is rocking the 7.3 K-BB% and 9.4% Barrels/BBE in the Texas heat tonight (temperatures are expected in the upper 90s). They and the Cubs (5.76 implied runs against James Shields) are the easy stacks tonight. Seven more offenses are at 4.77 runs or above with rest of the 12 teams below 4.5 runs currently. A lot of the more interesting matchups may be same-handed though. Both Anibal Sanchez and Rickey Nolasco are allowing a wOBA to RHBs in excess of .380 this season. While that would pin a lot on the shoulders of Edwin Encarnacion (130 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP since 2016), the only RHB regularly in the top half of the Cleveland lineup, 10 of Nolasco's 26 homers have been surrendered to LHBs with a .333 wOBA. Kansas City RHBs could be more interesting and less popular at 4.84 implied runs. Jorge Bonifacio, Whit Merrifield and Salvador Perez all exceed a 100 wRC+ and .180 ISO vs RHBs this year and each have at least a 180 wRC+ over the last week. Merrifield in particular has raised his fly ball rate by more than five points (42.8%) against RHP this year, which has led to increased success against same handed pitching. Sanchez has attacked RHBs with fastballs, sliders and changes all more than 10% of the time this year, attempting to work outside, but leaving too many pitches out over the plate. PlateIQ identifies both Merrifield and Perez as potentially good matchups here.

Despite a star studded night of pitching, there's a game at Coors as well as Ubaldo Jimenez facing the Astros, which ensures there will be some enormous implied run lines as well. Sure enough, the Rockies are once again over-valued at a slate leading 6.39 implied runs against an improving Trevor Williams (3.81 ERA/3.83 SIERA/20.5 K%/54.1 GB% over the last month), but the other team above six runs is the Kansas City Royals (6.05) facing James Shields. Kevin is forecasting a hot and humid affair with temperatures in the mid-90s. Players may be finding themselves with a number of Royals in their lineups as they are quite affordable on either site as well. They cap at Eric Hosmer's $3.4K on FanDuel with only Lorenzo Cain ($3.1K) also being above $3K. No Kansas City bat is above $4K on DraftKings. Whit Merrifield (108 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP this year) has turned into an actual leadoff hitter for this lineup and has a 182 wRC+ since the break. Brandon Moss could be the cheap value play here though. He has a 143 wRC+ and 50 Hard% since the break. He's now OF eligible on both sites, which means you won't have to punt First Base to roster him. Nine additional offenses currently have an implied run line of at least 4.9. Six of tonight's pitchers have an 18+ HR/FB this season, including Ricky Nolasco, who has surrendered a league leading 26 HRs this year. Interestingly, not all of these HR machines line up with the top run lines tonight, including Nolasco against a slumping Red Sox offense (4.37) with a team 59 wRC+ since the break. Andrew Moore has allowed eight HRs in four starts, but a similarly slumping Yankees offense (66 wRC+ since the break) has a run line of 4.64 tonight. Mike Fiers (20.8 HR/FB) is one pitcher who may not deserve a 5.03 run line against him. Baltimore has a 15.7 K-BB% vs RHP and Fiers has a 16.2 K-BB% and 3.5 Hard-Soft% since incorporating a sinker in mid-May.

Kevin Gausman, Ricky Nolasco and R.A. Dickey are pitchers daily fantasy players normally feel comfortable picking on, but the three have allowed a combined two runs over each of their last two outings. While using any of the three in your lineup still seems risky, should players now consider avoiding attacking them? Dickey is the easiest to consider. He throws knuckleballs. There are very few adjustments possible, yet he's allowed a total of two ERs over his last three starts with a 24 K% and 11.6 SwStr% over the last month. The last team to bomb him was Washington (8 ERs, 3 HRs), whom he's facing tonight. Weather and BvP data may be better indicators of his success. There's a little bit of a breeze and late game rain potential in Washington, which shouldn't affect the knuckler too much. In tonight's lineup, only Ryan Zimmermann has homered against Dickey. He's done so twice with a 95.4 mph aEV (four BBEs) in the Statcast era. Ricky Nolasco has shut down the Dodgers (on the road) and Mariners at home, both very negative run environments. He's struck out 12 with just two walks and no runs, though he only really managed contact well against Seattle. Texas is a different kind of park, expected to be hot and humid. The Texas bats are a favorite in today's Trendspotting article today. Kevin Gausman may be a different story. He has struck out 22 of his last 70 batters and has not allowed a run in his last two starts. He’s stopped throwing his slider and started throwing more splitters. A prominent reverse platoon for his career, RHBs have just a .131 wOBA over his last three starts (27.5 K-BB%, 0.0 Hard-Soft%). Curiously, Brooks Baseball has his velocity up a bit in his last start, while Fangraphs does not. Gausman might be the one of these three with some reason to reconsider offensive exposure against tonight.

Five of 12 offenses have an implied run line above five runs tonight with the Yankees (5.84) currently being the highest. It looks like the most stackable spot against David Holmberg (RHBs 39.7 Hard%), but the Yankees are dealing with some injuries and have just a 96 wRC+ LHP. In theory, they should make short work of a subpar lefty, but on a night where players may be paying up for pitching, it could be difficult to afford top Yankee bats as well. Ricky Nolasco has allowed multiple HRs in 10 of 15 starts and would be the next victim against a red-hot Dodger offense (176 wRC+ over the last week). They have a 5.45 implied run line. Nolasco has a reverse split (RHBs .345 wOBA, 36.5 Hard% since last season), which may make Justin Turner (152 wRC+, 225 ISO RHP since last season) and Chris Taylor (124 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP this year) the top plays and persuade the Dodgers to play a few more RHBs tonight. LHBs have hit Nolasco well too though (.326 wOBA, 34.5 Hard%). While Eddie Butler has shown some improvement against RHBs this year (.300 wOBA, 54.2 GB%), LHBs continue to hit him hard (25 GB%, 38.3 Hard%), making not only Harper and Murphy top plays, but Brian Goodwin (101 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP since last season) a nice salary savor as well. Potentially less popular and with the lowest implied run line (5.1) of those above five, Cleveland bats could leave their mark on a returning Cole Hamels tonight.

Ricky Nolasco has some great peripherals with a 23.8 K% over the last month that may lead some players in his direction, but he's been a perennial under-performer, who allows way too much hard contact. Even with a pitcher's park to call home, he's allowed multiple HRs in seven of 10 starts. He has a 37.7 Hard%, his 89.4 mph aEV is second highest on the board, and his 12% Barrels/BBE is worst. That said, Atlanta's 3.8 implied runs is second lowest on the slate. Without their top hitter, there's really not a scary bat in this lineup, but Nolasco does have a reverse split (RHBs .338 wOBA, 36.1 Hard%), which could make Matt Kemp (110 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP since last season) an interesting play tonight. Kemp is actually the only one of the first seven hitters with a wRC+ below 100 over the last week.

Ricky Nolasco has a 20.6 K%, which is his highest rate since 2010. Over the last month, he's even up to 22.6% with an 11.1 SwStr%. Against a Tampa Bay lineup with a 25.4 K% at home and 26.6 K% vs RHP, players may consider the upside for less than $8K. While there may be some merit to that, those players may also want to hedge a bit in additional lineups considering his 8.3% Barrels/PA is tied for highest on the entire day, not just the night slate. The Rays swing and miss a lot, but punish the baseballs they do connect with as well. They have a 17.5 HR/FB vs RHP and 31.4 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison each have a wRC+ above 180 with a hard hit rate above 50% over the last week. While Nolasco has been more vulnerable to RHBs (.336 wOBA, 36.1 Hard% since last season), Evan Longoria (125 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP since 2016, 45.5 Hard% last seven days) and Tim Beckham (99 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP since 2016, 44.4 Hard% over the last week) deserve some infield consideration. Each costs below $3K on FanDuel.