Robbie Erlin Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Wednesday night is a slate with some pitching value far beyond the most expensive arms. Robbie Erlin (20.5 K%, 3.46 SIERA, .306 xwOBA) is your potential DK punt play in an SP2 spot against the Giants (76 wRC+ on the road, 80 wRC+ vs LHP) for near the minimum. Tyler Anderson has a 23.3 K%, 3.70 SIERA and .319 xwOBA over the last month with a massive park bump for just $6.4K on FanDuel. What's the problem? He has to face the Dodgers (144 wRC+ last seven days) and has an actual 7.71 ERA for some reason over the last 30 days. Chris Archer (24.6 K%, 3.82 SIERA) is inconsistent, but gets to race the Royals (81 wRC+ on the road, 93 wRC+ vs RHP) at a reasonable price (< $8K) in Pittsburgh. Dallas Keuchel does not miss bats, but gets lots of weak ground balls (53.9 GB%), pitches in a great park and has failed to complete six innings just four times since May. The Mariners will not help his strikeout rate any though (20.3% vs LHP). Luis Severino is less than $10K in a tough matchup (Red Sox 114 wRC+, 19 K% vs RHP) in tough park, but there may be some value there if you believe in regression. He has a 31.3 K% and 2.66 SIERA over the last month. Then of course, there's the incredibly unpredictable Cole Hamels, Robbie Ray matchup in Arizona. Hamels has begun to falter over his last two starts with two HRs allowed last time out and five walks the time before. Ray has the highest strikeout rate on the board (30.9%), but also tops the board with a 40.2% 95+ mph EV and a 12.8% walk rate. Hamels could pitch a complete game and Ray strike out ten, but it's a pretty massive range of potential outcomes with these two.

Price ($4.8K), park (San Diego) and opposition (Rangers 83 wRC+ on the road, 91 wRC+ vs LHP and without a DH tonight) make Robbie Erlin (20 K%, 3.52 SIERA, .309 xwOBA) a likely complement to Max Scherzer on DraftKings. Tyler Anderson (22.4 K%, 4.21 SIERA, .305 xwOBA) is a bit more expensive in San Francisco (41 wRC+, 28.6 K% last seven days), but has just one quality start over his last eight. Dallas Keuchel (17.5 K%, 4.04 SIERA, .303 xwOBA) has had mixed results recently, but has gone at least six innings 22 times this year and has the top ground ball rate on the board (54%) in perhaps the best park (Houston) at a reasonable price ($7.9K on DK) against the Diamondbacks (86 wRC+ on the road, 93 wRC+ vs LHP). Chris Archer (24.2 K%, 3.85 SIERA, .332 xwOBA) remains inconsistent in a dangerous spot (Brewers 16.8 HR/FB vs RHP), but also a high upside one (Brewers 24.6 K% vs RHP) for $7.5K or less. Chris Stratton (19 K%, 3.95 SIERA, .325 xwOBA last 30 days) is cheap and at home against the Rockies (81 wRC+, 23.3 K% vs RHP). Finally, some high strikeout arms (Robbie Ray, Jack Flaherty, and Noah Syndergaard) are just in terrible spots in Houston, vs LA (NL) and at Fenway tonight.

No surprise to find the Rockies well atop the board at 6.05 runs against a lefty at Coors. Nolan Arenado (238 wRC+, .432 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Trevor Story (149 wRC+, .308 ISO) are obligatory plays in this situation. Something to consider though, Robbie Erlin has a reverse split this season (RHBs .256 wOBA, 25.8 Hard% - LHBs.321 wOBA, 45.5 Hard%). That should put Charlie Blackmon (104 wRC+, .156 ISO) on your radar if he wasn't already, but there are additional factors worth considering here. One is some risk in the weather forecast. The other is that the Padres enter the game with the top bullpen by FIP (3.01) and K-BB (23.7%) over the last 30 days.

The Brewers top the early slate with a 4.77 run line against Robbie Erlin, who started for just the third time this season a week ago (5 IP - 1 R - 4 K @ Wrigley). With most of his usage coming out of the pen, he's a difficult arm to evaluate, made more difficult by a reverse split in his 64.2 IP this season. RHBs have a .248 wOBA, 18.9 K-BB% and 24 Hard% against him. While the xwOBA is 40 points higher, that's still just .288! RHBs have a .312 wOBA with a 44.1 Hard%, but 63.2% of contact has been on the ground. The Brewers have power (17.2 HR/FB at home, 15.8 HR/FB vs LHP), but also have just a 90 wRC+ vs LHP, though their strikeout rate is much lower (21%) than against RHP. At just $4.6K, Erlin could make a reasonable SP2 punt if necessary in this spot. At least the top of the order for the Brewers is worth looking at too, of course: Lorenzo Cain (178 wRC+, .209 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Christian Yelich (135 wRC+, .181 ISO) and Jesus Aguilar (138 wRC+, .286 ISO).

Miles Mikolas and Zack Greinke are two of the three pitchers who have averaged more than six innings per start both this year. Greinke is one of two do have done so over the last two calendar years (Mikolas pitched outside the country). The other two pitchers to have averaged six innings or more over either of those spans are both in Texas. Masahiro Tanaka has struggled with a difficult schedule and dropped below that this season, but the Yankee bullpen has a 33.6 K%. Bartolo Colon is one of three pitchers to average six innings per start this season, but he's facing the Yankees. The Ranger bullpen has a 20.9 K% that's fifth worse in baseball, but with just 17 HRs allowed and moderate ERA estimators. Blaine Hardy and Robby Erlin come out of the pen to start tonight. While the pen has been a source of strength for the Padres (25.4 K%, 3.25 FIP), the Detroit bullpen (20.6 K%) may be one to attack, though they've allowed just 16 HRs, generating a FIP about a half run below their xFIP and actual ERA. Hector Santiago and Jason Vargas have both averaged fewer than five innings in three starts each. The White Sox have an average bullpen by strikeouts, HRs and FIP, but their 4.42 ERA is ninth worse in baseball. The Mets have the ninth best bullpen SIERA (3.61) and just one lefty (Blevins) behind Vargas, but he'll most certainly be seeing Justin Bour late in the game if it matters with no other left-handed threats in that lineup. Lastly, Ian Kennedy has averaged just over five innings per start this season and the Kansas City bullpen remains the worst in the league (16.3 K%, 24 HRs allowed).

It's an incredibly small sample size, but the Phillies have been a bad team vs LHP for a long time. Robbie Erlin has not retained his strikeout ability in the high minors or majors, but does exhibit excellent control. He perhaps doesn't offer enough upside to really put himself in consideration tonight, but we also don't really want to target many of the Phillies with Ryan Howard batting cleanup against a LHP. Maikel Franco has a 137 wRC+, .270 ISO vs LHP in his young career, making him a nice upside option at home. Cesar Hernandez is also a viable punt play hitting atop the order.