Robbie Ray Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

A Friday night 12 game slate includes three $10K pitchers, but only one on FanDuel with one more exceeding $9K on both sites. This is not a very strong pitching slate, considering the size of it and some of those expensive arms may not even be viable. Most expensively on either site, Robbie Ray has six straight Quality Starts with a total of six runs allowed (none in either of his last two without any walks). He’s gone through streaks of volatility with strikeouts, walks and contact, but is now in a place where all of those numbers are either strong or not much of a hindrance (28.1 K%, 8.1 BB%, 7.6% Barrels/BBE). While 24 of his 31 barrels have left the yard, non-FIP estimators are all within one-tenth of a run of his 3.45 ERA. What could be a problem here is that he’s strictly a fastball/slider guy and the Braves (124 wRC+, 22.2 K%, 9.9 BB%, 14.3 HR/FB vs LHP) have pounded both those pitches since the break (0.92 wFB/C, 0.59 wSL/C) and run out predominantly right-handed lineups (Ray has a near 40 points w/OBA & xwOBA split). Despite the extremely dangerous matchup, Ray will be pitching in the most negative run environment on the board and still projects as the top pitcher on the board and third best DraftKings value (six best FanDuel value). For more on all of tonight’s top priced pitchers, including a couple who may be unusable, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Not only do we currently have five pitchers reaching $10K on at least one site tonight (depending on whether Pablo Lopez actually starts or not), but there are three more in the $9K range on both sites. Robbie Ray only reaches $9K on one site (FanDuel), but is still the top projected value there and second best point per dollar value on DraftKings (although projections are fluid and subject to change). With Ray, you don’t know what you’re going to get in any given start, which certainly isn’t as good as last year’s Cy Young award winner, but probably better than when you knew you were going to get lots of walks and bombs. After a 32.7 K% over a seven start span spiked his season strikeout rate over one-quarter of the batters he faced, he’s struck out just seven of his last 50, but did just break a streak of home runs allowed in seven straight games (10) on 11 barrels (11.4%). Ironically, the overall result is pretty marginal. Combining a 16.4 K-BB% with 8.5% Barrels/BBE, estimators range from 3.81 SIERA to a 4.60 FIP. The slumping Angels have a 96 wRC+ and 24 K% vs LHP this season. It’s a high upside matchup in a great park. Ray could certainly blow up, but he could also win a GPP for someone tonight.

A sub-$9K pitcher who also projects as a top value on either site is Jon Gray and this is due to a combination of his own skills and a tremendous matchup. Gray struck out double digit batters with no more than one run in at least six innings in two of his last three starts (Rays, White Sox), but in between, he struck out just three of 26 Guardians with five runs against him and only has more than four strikeouts in two other starts this year. That said, he does have a 27.8 K% over his last six starts and is up to 26% on the season, which he’s going to need with a double digit walk rate (10%) and average contact profile (88.4 mph EV, 6.6% Barrels/BBE). Estimators are tightly grouped between a 3.63 DRA and 3.83 SIERA, more than a run below his 4.85 ERA (66.1 LOB%). More enticing, Gray is in Detroit tonight. The Tigers have a 65 wRC+, 24.9 K%, 6.3 BB% and 6.8 HR/FB vs LHP this year. Each of those are bottom two marks on the board. This may be a strong enough matchup for Gray to stand alone for $8.6K on FanDuel, but costs a mere $6.9K on DraftKings, where he projects as a top three value and a great complement to your higher priced arm, as there are no other pitchers who project similarly in his price range on DK.

Tarik Skubal costs at least $9K on both sites, but still projects as the fifth best value on either site on the other end of this matchup in Detroit. He’s about the only thing that’s working out concerning the Detroit rebuild. Although he’s allowed at least three runs in three of his last four starts, he has just a 3.60 ERA over that span because he’s completed seven innings in three of them also. Skubal has a 27.6 K% with just a 4.4 BB% and above average ground ball rate (47.3%), resulting in estimators all below three and within half a run of his 2.71 ERA. The Rangers have been productive against LHP (114 wRC+, 21.4 K%, 17.5 HR/FB), but Skubal has pitched like a $10K arm this year.

Carlos Carrasco is another pitcher in the $9K range worth looking at. He has allowed at least four runs in three of his last six starts, including his last time out, but just a total three in his other three, while also striking out at least seven in three of his last four, including his last time out. A .333 BABIP that’s 42 points above what his defense has allowed has his 3.93 ERA more than one-third of a run above all estimators next to an 18.8 K-BB%. The Marlins have been surprisingly good against RHP (113 wRC+, 21.9 K%, 14.4 HR/FB), despite running out a predominantly right-handed lineup, but Carrasco pitches in a great park and has been better than his surface numbers.

PlateIQ currently projects Luis Castillo as one of tonight’s top point per dollar play among mid-range arms or anyone costing more than $7K tonight on either site. His numbers through two starts are sub-par (at least for him) in every area. They include just seven strikeouts with four walks (39 batters faced), a 46.2 GB% and 91.9 mph EV. His velocity is down two mph as well. Projections expect regression though, so we may want to be careful here. Projections are also fluid throughout the day, so his could change, but the Blue Jays have just a 97 wRC+ and 23.1 K% vs RHP this year and play in a controlled (retractable dome) neutral run environment. If we’re looking back beyond just this year’s two starts after coming off the IL though, Castillo could have a lot of upside at a low price.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is in a similar situation. He has walked just three of 53 batters with a 54.8 GB%, while all three of his barrels (7.1%) have left the yard. He’s also struck out only eight with a 92.2 mph EV. Estimators are about half his 9.00 ERA. However, he projects very well from a point per dollar standpoint on FanDuel for less than $7K at home against the Reds (65 wRC+, 26.5 K% vs LHP). He’s a more marginal play for nearly $2K more on DraftKings.

Last year, Robbie Ray finally realized his full potential and won a Cy Young by getting his walk and hard hit rates (mostly barrels) under control. Not only has he reverted to old ways, but over his first four starts, he failed to strike out more than five with significantly reduced velocity. The good news is that strikeouts and velocity are up over his last four (32.7%), but the walk rate (10.2%) and hard contact over that span are still problematic. While all estimators are below his 4.62 ERA this season, none by a full run. He has provided some value to the Mariners in terms of workload, competing six innings in six of his eight starts. Boston is another tough park against an offense that is beginning to hit (148 wRC+ last seven days), but they also have just a 79 wRC+, 23.4 K% and 4.1 HR/FB vs LHP this year. Ray may be too cheap at $8K on DraftKings. Nobody more expensive than him projects as a better point per dollar value currently.

Chase Silseth is actually the top point per dollar projection on FanDuel right now and this is simply based on cost ($6.4K – over $1K more on DK) and matchup. Silseth struck out four of 20 A’ with two walks, a 61.5 GB%, 85.6 mph EV and 11.1 SwStr% in his major league debut. Just a marginal prospect (35+ FV grade via Fantraphs), he generated a 30.3 K-BB% in 26 innings at AA before the call-up. The fact that the A’s have already seen him and recently does make him riskier, but its also the A’s (72 wRC+, 23.8 K% vs RHP).

Despite a mere six game slate starting at 6:45 ET tonight, there is no shortage of top tier pitching on Thursday night. Both Logan Webb and Shane McClanahan breach the $10K mark on FanDuel ($9K on DK), while Aaron Nola misses by just $100 on FD (just $8K on DK). And we didn’t even mention the reigning AL Cy Young winner, who’s available for less than $9K on either site. These are the top four projected pitchers according to PlateIQ projections, but just not in that order. In fact, Ray is the top projected pitcher in LineupHQ, followed by Nola, Webb and McClanahan. This also makes Ray the potential top value on FanDuel and both Ray and Nola top DraftKings values. For more on tonight's top arms, including which one of the above pitchers has a good chance of beating his current projections, check out Thursday's PlateIQ Live Blog

Thirteen games on the Friday night slate with two pitchers crossing the $10K mark on both sites, two more just on FanDuel and then three more above $9K. Carlos Rodon has hit the IL twice and made just two starts over the last month with a shoulder issue, striking out just eight of 43 batters. The good news is that he’s had a 13 SwStr% in each of those two starts, but his velocity was down. Despite the dominance that’s seen just a single estimator exceed three this season (3.06 xFIP), expectations should probably be tempered against the Red Sox. There are enough reasons to fade the second most expensive pitcher on the board tonight, but the most expensive arm available is also the top arm. Robbie Ray has a 40.5 K% and 17.9 SwStr% over his last five starts and has a 25.9 K-BB% on the season. He’s also allowed just two home runs and six barrels (5.0%) over his last eight starts. He has 16 quality starts in his last 18 outings and five straight where he’s recorded seventh inning outs. The 2.60 ERA is still a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.14 SIERA to a 3.37 FIP, due to the 89.5 LOB%. Five of nine projected for Baltimore exceed a 24 K% vs LHP.

Costing more than $10K on FanDuel, but more than $1K less on DraftKings is the matchup in a neutral environment in Houston where Shohei Ohtani and Framber Valdez face off. In eight starts since his debacle at Yankee Stadium, Ohtani has a 23.4 K-BB% with just six walks and seven quality starts, all with two runs or less. Season estimators are around three and a half. The obvious problem here is the matchup. The Astros have a 123 wRC+ at home, 115 wRC+ vs RHP and only three batters in the projected lineup exceed a 21 K% vs RHP this season. With a league average strikeout rate (22.0%), Framber Valdez has generated 69.9% of his contact on the ground. Even with a 90.2 mph EV, he’s only allowed 4.8% Barrels/BBE. His 3.08 ERA is about half a run below estimators. Valdez has faced fewer than 24 batters just three times this season, which means you’re paying up for volume, but the projected lineup for the Angels includes four batters above a 27 K% vs LHP this season. At just $9.1K on DraftKings, Valdez may be the top value among the four on either site.

Costing $9.9K on both sites, Tyler Mahle has been a bit inconsistent from a run prevention standpoint (only nine quality starts), but has been very efficient in the strikeout department (28.2 K%). His 3.76 ERA almost matches a 3.75 SIERA and xFIP with a 3.85 xERA just slightly higher. He gets a substantial park upgrade in St Louis, where he’ll face a below average offense (89 wRC+ vs RHP). However, Mahle has a reverse split and will be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup that includes just two projected batters above a 20.5 K% vs RHP.

Also above $9K on both sites, we have the matchup at Dodger Stadium tonight. Joe Musgrove has quality starts in six of his last eight attempts with five or fewer strikeouts in half of them, but eight or more in the other half. There have been some ups and downs and inconsistencies, but the overall production has been great, including a 21.2 K-BB%, 87.3 mph EV and just 5.8% Barrels/BBE. While a 2.96 DRA is on par with a 2.87 ERA, additional estimators hover around three and a half. Within $100 of $9.5K on either site, the Dodgers have a 114 wRC+ at home, 107 wRC+ vs RHP and only two of eight projected batters exceed a 21 K% vs RHP. Julio Urias has just one quality start in his last seven attempts, only because he’s frequently falling short of the workload requirement. He’s allowed a total of seven runs over this span, but has only completed six innings once. By rate stats, this has been a breakout season for Urias, producing a 21.6 K-BB% with exceptional contact management (86.2 mph EV, 5.9% Barrels/BBE). Estimators are all above his 3.11 ERA, but tightly packed between a 3.30 xERA and 3.62 xFIP. The Padres have just a 93 wRC+ vs LHP, but just three batters in the projected lineup exceed a 20.5 K% vs LHP. It’s quite obvious there are matchup concerns with many of the pitchers costing more than $9K tonight with Robbie Ray and Framber Valdez being the most attractive exceptions.

FanDuel offers four pitchers at $10K or above on a 14 game slate tonight, while DraftKings offers just one. In fact, only three pitchers on DraftKings exceed $9K in cost tonight. The most expensive pitcher on the board, the best pitcher on the board and only one above $10K on both sites is Zack Wheeler. If you look beyond surface results, Zack Wheeler is the most deserving NL Cy Young candidate this year, most recently with a two-hit shutout of the Mets with 11 strikeouts. Wheeler not only has those surface results (2.42 ERA), but the underlying metrics (23.9 K-BB%, 50.3 GB%, 84.7 mph EV, 4.5% Barrels/BBE), along with tremendous volume (at least seven innings pitched in 15 of 23 starts) to back it up. A 3.13 SIERA Is more than one-third of a run above all his other estimators. Bringing down his value a bit tonight is the matchup. The Reds have a 108 wRC+ and 16.6 HR/FB vs RHP. While they aren’t as potent on the road, Philadelphia is a park that’s comparable to Cincinnati, in that it’s very power friendly and weather conditions won’t be pitcher friendly tonight. Only two batters in the projected Cincinnati lineup exceed a 21 K% vs RHP and none above 24%. If you’re paying up for Wheeler tonight, you’re doing so on the merit of his talent and skills alone, which isn’t necessarily a bad idea should ownership projections run low in this spot.

Robbie Ray is most recently coming off six shutout innings against the Red Sox, but is also carrying just a 22.3 K% and 9.6 BB% over his last four starts, albeit with three of those starts against Boston. That familiarity is likely to favor the offense, which would also make us less concerned about his performance going forward. Ray has made great strides with his control this year (6.8 BB%), while retaining an elite strikeout rate (30.2%) and even improving his contact profile recently (9.4% Barrels/BBE for the year now). His 2.90 ERA is about a half run below estimators between 3.38 (SIERA) and 3.88 (FIP), due to a 90.1 LOB%. He gets a massive park boost. In fact, with the roof closed, Seattle may be the most negative run environment in the league, according to Statcast Park Factors. The projected Seattle lineup also includes five batters above a 24.5 K% vs LHP this year. Ray should challenge Wheeler for the top overall spot tonight and may be the superior value in a much better spot.

Jack Flaherty returns from an oblique injury that has kept him off a major league mound since the end of May. Over three minor league rehab starts at two separate levels, he struck out 11 of 37 batters with a single walk and home run over nine innings, working his way up to four innings and 16 batters in the most recent (AA). Over 11 starts this season, his xERA (4.77 – 90.2 mph EV, 8.6% Barrels/BBE) greatly differs from additional estimators just a bit below four (26.3 K%, 7.8 BB%). He’s over-priced at $10.1K on FanDuel and probably even for $8.3K on DraftKings because he’s likely to be facing a limited workload in his first start back.

Julio Urias has exceeded five strikeouts in just three of his last 13 starts and is down to a 21.6 K% (9.4 SwStr%) over his last five. However, he’s still above a 20 K-BB% on the season because he throws strikes (5.1 BB%). He also continues to avoid hard contact (86.2 mph EV, 6% Barrels/BBE), generating a 3.48 xERA that’s very close to his 3.41 ERA. In fact, estimators are all tightly packed between 3.41 (FIP and 3.58 (SIERA, xFIP). Urias gets a park upgrade with Citi Field being one of the most negative run environments in the league, though Weather Edge suggests that pitcher friendliness may be in jeopardy tonight. Optimistically, there are four batters in the lineup projected to face Urias above a 27 K% vs LHP this season. However, volume might be an issue here. One of the reason Urias’s raw strikeout totals over this 13 start run have been lower is because he’s only completed six innings four times in this stretch. With just a $100 point difference in price between sites, Urias may be a tough pay up on either tonight.

The game in New York tonight will feature two southpaws against two offenses who have done a lot of damage to LHPs this year. Both Robbie Ray and Steven Matz have been above average pitchers with an ERA right around four, but both are also among the bottom three on the board in terms of Barrels/BBE.

Over his last four starts, Ray has walked 16.7% of batters and while his strikeout rate has remained consistent at 30.6%, it does so with a drop in SwStr to 11% over that span. His 10.2% Barrels/BBE is second worst on the board. Ray has also been merely average vs RHBs this year (.328 wOBA, .325 xwOBA). The projected lineup for the Mets features five RHBs above a 125 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs LHP this year: Amed Rosario (131 wRC+, .213 ISO), Pete Alonso (151 wRC+, .366 ISO), J.D. Davis (131 wRC+, .205 ISO), Wilson Ramos (159 wRC+, .196 ISO) and Todd Frazier (128 wRC+, .231 ISO). More interestingly, Alonso is the only one above $4K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel.

Steven Matz has been quite a bit better recently and perhaps doesn’t deserve to be attacked that hard. He has a 2.17 ERA and .258 xwOBA over the last month, though a SIERA two runs higher over that span and has allowed 9.1% Barrels/BBE on the year. The projected lineup for the Diamondbacks does not contain a single left-handed bat and while Matz has allowed just a .314 wOBA to RHBs with a supporting .312 xwOBA, 18 of his 23 HRs have been surrendered to batters from that side. The Arizona projected lineup features five batters above a 140 wRC+ and .250 ISO against southpaws this season: Ketel Marte (146 wRC+, .294 ISO), Eduardo Escobar (128 wRC+, .277 ISO), Wilmer Flores (147 wRC+, .315 ISO), Nick Ahmed (144 wRC+, .260 ISO) and Carson Kelly (193 wRC+, .333 ISO). Weather and umpire may also lean towards boosting offense in a normally very negative run environment, as premium subscribers can confirm. With both teams implied for just 4.25 runs tonight, this could be a sneaky spot for offense.