Robert Gsellman Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Jason Vargas is the only pitcher on the board averaging less than 5.1 innings per start tonight. Part of that is probably by design, some of it because he's had some really bad starts. If considering Diamondback hitters, who are strong against LHP, the Mets bullpen is primarily right-handed. They do have just a 4.44 FIP and 11.7 K-BB% over the last 30 days. Also, their two top bullpen arms (Familia - DL & Lugo - rotation) are out of the pen right now, though they did recently just get back Anthony Swarzak to pair with Robert Gsellman (2.81 FIP last 30 days). Felix Hernandez, Domingo German and Anibal Sanchez are averaging less than 5.2 innings per start. The Yankees (2.76 FIP, 19.8 K-BB%) and Mariners (2.74 FIP, 20.1 K-BB%) are the top two bullpens by FIP and top three pens by K-BB% over the last month, though that's unlikely to stop players from loading up on Boston bats on a four game slate, even in a negative run environment. The Braves have a 17.0 K-BB% (10th) over that span, but a 4.18 FIP (15.1 HR/FB).

While P.J. Conlin may start, he threw just 3.2 innings in his first major league start and the 24 year-old lefty has a below 20 K% at both AA and AAA. Seth Lugo is now pitching in the first game, which is tied at two. If it does not go extra-innings, Robert Gsellman (22.1 K%, 3.66 SIERA) and Paul Sewald (25.4 K%, 3.17 SIERA) should both be available for multi-inning stints, weather permitting in the nightcap. The bullpens in Colorado are both middling (Rockies 4.08 FIP, Giants 3.90 FIP), though it shouldn't much matter for games at Coors. The Twins have a bottom four 4.37 FIP, but an acceptable 23.5 K%. They face the Royals, who have the worst bullpen in the majors (5.00 FIP, 17.2 K%), which may be one reason why Jakob Junis is the only pitcher on the slate averaging more than six innings per start. Vince Velasquez has completed six innings in half of his 10 starts, but is averaging just over five innings per start on the season. Drew Hutchison is the only reliever averaging much more than an inning per appearance out of the Philly pen, but he's allowed a HR in each of his last three appearances that have lasted more than a batter. The pen overall has a 3.86 FIP that's top half of the league. Brock Stewart has not faced more than 18 batters in an outing at any level since the middle of April. The Dodger pen has a 4.11 FIP and 24.2 K%, but just a 3.11 FIP and 25.8 K% over the last 14 days.

On a dare, someone must have suggested to Dusty Baker that they could beat the Mets without the use of a single major league regular in the lineup. Only Willmer Difo, Howie Kendrick and Adam Lind, all in the top half of the lineup, have seen semi-regular at bats among a confirmed lineup with a .248 wOBA and .090 ISO vs RHP this year with a 19.7 K-BB%. The question is, does this add Robert Gsellman to the plethora of usable arms tonight. He is coming off seven shutout innings with three hits against the Braves, but struck out just three in that start. Despite a hard hit rate below 20% in three straight starts now, his velocity has been dropping and he's struck out a total of 11 batters over this span. While the matchup does make him look a lot better, this still doesn't seem ideal for players looking to maximize upside with their fantasy dollars.

Arizona and Washington are each tied for second with a 121 sOPS+ against ground ball pitching, significant because both are facing good ground ball pitchers tonight. The Nationals face Jake Arrieta, who's 17.8 K-BB% suggests he's been better than his 4.36 ERA, but may be tough to trust in this matchup. Carlos Martinez (27.8 K%, 2.87 ERA, 3.68 SIERA) has been better, but Arizona's success against ground ball pitchers in a difficult park could provide reason for caution. One reason for that success is Paul Goldschmidt, who has raised his fly ball rate 10 points this year, but may just be bouncing back from a 28.8 FB% last season. He leads the team with a 236 sOPS+, but just four HRs against ground ballers this season. On the other end of the spectrum, Baltimore (83 sOPS+) and Miami (79 sOPS+) have been bottom five offenses vs GB pitchers. Joe Biagini has struggled a bit in recent starts, but is very cheap on DraftKings, facing a Baltimore offense with a 16.1 K-BB% vs RHP too. Robert Gsellman has gotten tattooed in two straight starts (14 ERs - 9.1 IP) and hasn't been much better against the Marlins in three starts (14.2 IP - 14 R - 10 ER - 4 HR - 5 BB - 14 K).

Everything was already lining up for James Paxton to be one of the top pitchers on the slate, but Kevin has also noted in his forecast winds blowing in from left-center around 10-15 mph. With the Tigers lining up entirely right-handed that could hold up a few fly balls off their bats. Yes, this may also present a bit of an issue for Nelson Cruz, but he's still likely strong enough to overcome the breeze. Citi Field may also offer favorable conditions for Robert Gsellman and Julio Teheran with temperatures around 60 and a light breeze (5 mph) blowing in from left. Fenway is supposed to be in the 50s with a light wind blowing in (7 mph) from center, which could make it a bit less hitter friendly tonight. Texas does have a wind blowing out to right-center, but temperatures are only in the 60s and with both pitchers going from the left-hand side, it's likely that lineups will feature more RHBs. There don't appear to be any parks with weather conditions favoring hitters beyond original park factors tonight.

Outside of one bad start against the Miami Marlins, Robert Gsellman, who is starting in place of Noah Syndergaard tonight, has been fairly consistent to this point in the season. He's allowed three runs and struck out seven in each of his other two outings and may even have been a little unlucky to allow that many runs, evidenced by his .327 BABIP, 51.7% LOB% and 3.17 SIERA. This isn't a great strikeout matchup with the Atlanta Braves, but Gsellman still possesses some solid upside for his price tag, especially on DraftKings for $6.7K, given his solid 25.3% strikeout rate and manageable 7.6% walk rate. Although, on the other hand, all the Braves hitters are priced to face Syndergaard, so they can be rostered at a significant discount in what is still obviously a much better matchup than they were originally projected. It's tough to buy-in to any of Gsellman's early signs of being a reverse splits starting pitcher given the limited sample size, which means that Freddie Freeman (165 wRC+, .422 wOBA, .306 ISO vs RHP since 2016) is still firmly in play as a contrarian one-off option in tournaments. However, rostering Gsellman still looks to be the optimal way to approach this matchup

The RotoGrinders K Predictor loses two of its top four to a rain out and scratch tonight with another going on the day slate. That leaves James Paxton (7.2) with the top strikeout prediction on the slate and that might look even better considering the lineup the Tigers just submitted. They've gone entirely right-handed, while Paxton has generated a .282 wOBA against RHBs since 2015 (.357 vs LHBs). An incredibly interesting name below him is Trevor Cahill, now projected for the second highest strikeout total on the slate (6.64) and this is no mistake. He's struck out at least six in all three starts and his 15.0 SwStr% is currently fifth highest in the majors. Best of all, he costs just $4.2K on DraftKings! Lower on the board, players can certainly consider Sean Manaea (27.4 K%, 14.3 SwStr%) against the Angels, who are striking out a bit more this year (19.9% vs LHP) and Dylan Bundy, who has just 12.1 SwStr% despite facing the Red Sox twice (16.2 K% vs RHP). He now faces an offense with 25.8 K% vs RHP (Rays). Late replacement Robert Gsellman also has a 25.3 K% at a low price.

The RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor names the usual suspects atop tonight's strikeout projections with Clayton Kershaw (8.39) leading the way, followed by Madison Bumgarner (7.05) and Chris Archer (6.87). Many players will be paying up for pitching tonight, but Archer is someone who is off to a strong start and may go under-owned facing a tough Detroit team. The Tigers have a 105 wRC+ vs RHP thus far, but have struck out in 24.1% of plate appearances and are without Justin Upton tonight, thinning out the lineup a bit. Another spot with higher risk, but also high strikeout potential is the Philadelphia at New York NL contest. Vince Velasquez and Robert Gsellman both have ERAs around nine, but estimators nearly six full runs lower. Velasquez has struck out 38.6% of batters so far (NYM 24.5 K% vs RHP) and Gsellman has fanned 26% (PHI 23.7 K% vs RHP). Basically, anyone who doesn't strike out has been scoring against them. Each has a strand rate below 70%.