Robert Stephenson Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Since the start of July, Freddy Peralta has a 25.1 K%, but a 15.4 BB%, 6.13 ERA, 4.92 FIP and LHBs have a .442 wOBA against him with a 52.1 Hard% and 2.4 K-BB%. His one pitch trick without any control over where that 91 mph fastball goes has been exposed by left-handed batters. Unfortunately, the Reds only have one who has been above average against RHP over the last calendar year: Scooter Gennett (132 wRC+, .195 ISO). Mason Williams (95 wRC+, .121 ISO) certainly plays for the minimum on FD and just $3.4K on DK against those stats too. Both he and Gennett are above a 200 wRC+ over the last week. RHBs still have just a .234 wOBA against Peralta over that span. The Brewers are the top projected offense on the afternoon slate by a mile. Their 5.73 run line is a full run above the next best team. Robert Stephenson had a 28.9 K% at AAA this season, but has walked nine of 31 batters faced in two major league starts so far. For his short career so far, which encompasses just under 600 batters faced, batters from either side are within 11 points of a .350 wOBA against him. At least each of the first five batters in the order for the Brewers are rosterable. Only Mike Moustakas (95 wRC+, .200 ISO) is below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year from that group and only Lorenzo Cain (105 wRC+, .091 ISO) is below a .200 ISO. Christian Yelich (137 wRC+, .212 ISO) is the premium bat here as Milwaukee plays slightly more power friendly for LHBs, though Jesus Aguilar (141 wRC+, .287 ISO) and Travis Shaw (122 wRC+, .266 ISO) can wreck baseballs as well.

Sean Manaea is one of three pitchers with average exit velocity above 88 mph tonight. His 88.9 mph aEV leads the slate, ahead of Robert Stephenson (88.5 mph) and Kyle Gibson (88.5 mph). Dylan Bundy sits at exactly 85 mph. Stephenson has also generated the highest frequency of Barrels on the slate 9.8% of batted balls with Eduardo Rodriguez (8.4%) and Marco Gonzales (8%) trailing. Only Gonzales (43%) and Manaea (41.1%) have allowed more than 40% of contact at an exit velocity above 95 mph more than 40% of the time. Some of these arms (Bundy, Stephenson, Rodriguez) may even be usable pitchers tonight due to recent strikeout proficiency, but there is certainly reason to be concerned and that doesn't preclude using the right bat against them. Gibson generates enough ground balls (51.8%) to make attacking him a bit tricky and he's also facing the Padres tonight. Manaea is certainly vulnerable to RHBs (.343 wOBA, 37.4 Hard%), while the Rangers have the highest implied run line on the board hosting Gonzales.

On the other end of the spectrum, nobody is planning on attacking Clayton Kershaw (84.5 mph aEV) in San Francisco and Gio Gonzalez may be a bit over-priced with an 85% strand rate this season and 6.6 SwStr% over the last month, but the work he's done managing contact can't be denied. He ties Kershaw for the lowest aEV on the board. Brent Suter (84.9 mph) is third, but has been allowing more hard contact to RHBs recently (5 HRs in 18 IP since start of August). Jon Gray has an 85 mph aEV, but that's been climbing recently too. Blake Snell has allowed the lowest rate of barrels on just 4.3% of batted balls, but RHBs have a 32.9 Hard% against him this year (.336 wOBA). Suter, Gray and Gonzalez are all tied at 4.7% Barrels/BBE, just ahead of Joe Biagini (4.8%), who mostly does that by generating so many ground balls (57%). Suter (25%), Kershaw (26.6%), Gonzalez (27%) and Lance Lynn (27.9%) have all generated a 95+ mph EV on fewer than 30% of batted balls. So while Gio Gonzalez may not have the upside his strikeout rate suggests or estimators that come close to supporting his 2.50 ERA, he's not necessarily someone players should look to attack either. It may be best to leave that entire matchup alone.

C.C. Sabathia has done a great job of managing contact this year. He may still have some issues facing a powerful, predominantly RH lineup in Baltimore, but it's probably not a surprise at this point to find out that his 84.8 mph aEV is lowest on the slate. What might be a surprise is the two pitchers who are lower. Both have sample size issues and would probably increase over a full season, but the point stands that neither Ordrisamer Despaigne (81.6 mph aEV in 28 IP) nor Ben Lively (84.5 mph aEV in 59 IP) are allowing a lot of hard contact. Neither misses enough bats to be considered a useful daily fantasy pitcher with strikeout rates below 15%, but they may not necessarily be pitchers players should be lining up to attack either. Both have a 95+ mph EV rate below 30% as well. Jacob deGrom and Michael Wacha are the only other pitchers on the board who can boast that as well. Lively does have a 23.6 K% (10.5 SwStr%) over his last three starts, but in the outing with the most strikeouts (eight) and only above average SwStr%, he also allowed four HRs with a 50% hard hit rate. On the other end of the spectrum, Kendall Graveman has the worse aEV (89.5 mph) and 95+ mph EV (42%). No other pitcher is above 88.5 mph or 40%. Robert Stephenson (9.9%) and Ariel Miranda (9.7%) have the highest rate of Barrels on batted balls. Stephenson has a 15+ SwStr% in three of his last four starts with just one HR allowed over his last five though.

Robert Stephenson had a 9.9% Barrels/BBE that's highest on the board. His 88.3 mph aEV and 38.4% 95+ mph EV are both only behind Kendall Graveman tonight. LHBs have a .373 wOBA and 43.3 Hard% against him this year. RHBs have a .357 wOBA and 33.3 Hard%. He's walked 14.4% of batters in 34 innings (six starts, one relief appearance) since the All-Star break. Cincinnati is a power haven. The Brewers have a 17.1 HR/FB on the road and 18.9 HR/FB vs RHP this year. Players should certainly consider having some exposure to Milwaukee bats tonight. Neil Walker (.207), Travis Shaw (.258), Stephen Vogt (.198), Domingo Santana (.211) and Ryan Braun (.224) have all shown significant power against RHP this year. Robert Stephenson has struck out 18 of his last 51 batters faced over his last two starts, exceeding 90 pitches in each. He's had a SwStr rate above 15% in three of his last four starts. His hard hit rate has been below 28% in four of his last six starts with just one HR allowed over his last five. He costs less than $7K against an offense with a 25% strikeout rate on the road, vs RHP and over the last week. Robert Stephenson could help someone win a GPP tonight.

There are five pitchers on tonight's board who exceed a 25% strikeout rate this season. Unfortunately, the only one above a 30% strikeout rate (Danny Salazar 32.4%) returns from the DL with an elbow issue and has not thrown a professionally competitive pitch in two weeks, which makes him very likely to be facing some sort of pitch limitation that would make him unplayable tonight. Fortunately, the next two highest strikeout rates are in favorable spots. Stephen Strasburg has a 28.4 K% (second best on the slate) and is also third with a 30.3 K% over the last month. He's the top projected pitcher (RotoGrinders Player Projections) on the board in Miami. The Marlins have a 23.9 K% and 3.9 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Jacob deGrom's five Ks last time out was just his fourth time below eight in his last 12 starts. He's pitched into seventh in 12 of his last 15 and though his 25 HRs are tied for 17th most, his 28.7% 95+ mph EV is third best on the board. His 13.5 SwStr% is second on the slate. His 28.3 K% is third. He may have the top matchup on the board, hosting the Phillies (16.1 K-BB% vs RHP, 9.9 HR/FB road, 25.1 Hard% and 3.1 HR/FB last week). Zack Greinke has the fourth highest K% on the board (27.5%). He's catching the Dodgers at a great time (27.1 K% and 10.3 HR/FB over the last week). The one caveat is that they also have a 42% hard hit rate over the last week. Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed three to five ERs in seven of nine starts since returning from the DL after the break. His 15.3 K-BB% over that span is still above average and his 33.1 Hard% isn't terrible. For the season, his 25.2 K% is fifth best on the board and he's actually been better against RHBs. He has a 16.3 K-BB% against them since his return and 17.3% for the season. The Blue Jays have just a 28.3 Hard% against LHP this year. Other considerations might be Justin Verlander in his first start for the Astros in Seattle. He has eight or more Ks in seven of his last nine starts (25.1 K-BB%) with a 6.6 Hard-Soft% over that span. Kyle Hendricks has a 24.2 K% over the last month. His 12.6 SwStr% is fourth best on the board over that span. Robert Stephenson is the dark horse and deserves his own post, which begins with striking out 18 of his last 51 batters.

Jason Vargas has had some success as a low strikeout, extreme fly ball pitcher due to a big park, great outfield defense and lots of weak contact. He has an ERA above seven over his last seven starts because one of those things has gone away. He's allowed 10 HRs over that span with a 44.5% hard hit rate. Cleveland bats with power should be closely looked at tonight. Jake Odorizzi matches that hard hit rate (45.6%), only RHBs for the entire year with 17 of his 25 HRs allowed. Unfortunately, Tommy Pham is not in the St Louis lineup tonight, but some Paul DeJong (130 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP) exposure may be mandatory. Some other pitchers who have allowed too much hard contact include Parker Bridwell who's 88.4 mph aEV and 39.7% 95+ mph EV are both among the worst rates on the board with a 23.3 LD% to match. He has a 2.92 ERA due to an 83.8 LOB%. Kendall Graveman's 89 mph aEV and 41.6 95+ mph EV are both highest on the board. Jerad Eickhoff has a 35.3 GB% over his last seven starts with a hard hit rate above 33% in six of them. Ariel Miranda has allowed a league leading 31 HRs this year and his 9.0% Barrels/BBE is the second worst mark on the board. His opponent, the Yankees are second in sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers (114). Jeremy Hellickson allowed five HRs in his last start and has a hard hit rate above 40% in five of his last seven starts without a ground ball rate exceeding 40% in any of those starts. Premium subscribers have access to the daily Trendspotting article, which matches batters making the hardest contact with pitchers allowing it each day and it favors some Boston batters tonight against a pitcher allowing nearly 10% Value Hits to LHBs this year. LHBs have a 13.6 GB% and 42.5 Hard% over that span. Robert Stephenson has the only double digit barrel rate on the board (11.6% of BBEs). Premium subscribers have access to the daily Trendspotting article, which matches batters making the hardest contact with pitchers allowing it each day.

Exactly half of the teams on a 12 game slate have an implied run line above 4.75 runs, where the Rockies once again top the board at 6.71 implied runs, a full run above their opponent, the Mets (5.79). While Chris Flexen had a difficult debut in San Diego (four walks), he did have a 24.0 K-BB% in seven AA starts before making the jump. Tyler Chatwood, though, has been lit up only even making two post-All-Star break appearances totaling five runs and five walks in 1.1 innings. He has a -4.4 K-BB% in 23 innings since June 18th, in which LHBs have a .462 wOBA against him. Michael Conforto (140 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Jay Bruce (127 wRC+, .279 ISO vs RHP since 2016) both have a wRC+ above 150 with a hard hit rate above 40% over the last week and should be a staple of daily fantasy lineups tonight. Considering the stat of pitching on this slate, perhaps high cost offense is the way to go. Pittsburgh is a place where players may look at more affordable bats though. Robert Stephenson walked seven in his last start. RHBs have a .389 wOBA and 36.2 Hard% in 71.1 career innings, but LHBs have been even better (.419 wOBA, 43.4 Hard%). Adam Frazier (260 wRC+ last seven days) costs $2.7K on FanDuel, Josh Bell (115 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP career) is less than $4K on either site and John Jaso (106 wRC+, .162 ISO vs RHP since 2016) costs $2.6K or less on either.

The Marlins scored more runs last night in Texas than some teams do in a week, but conditions are not likely to be as hitter friendly back at home tonight. Robert Stephenson is a bit of a wild card. He has a 19.9 K-BB% in 40 AAA innings this season, but just a 9.6 K-BB% in 30 major league innings (mostly in relief) to go along with his 7.1 K-BB% in 37 innings last year. He struck out five of 25 Marlins in his first major league start of the season last week, but allowed two HRs in a power friendly park in Cincinnati. His major league hard hit rate now stands at 40.6%. His 89.9 mph aEV and 42.7% 95+ mph EV this year are worst on the slate. While Christian Yelich has declined (113 wRC+, .144 ISO vs RHP) due to just a 25.9% fly ball rate, Giancarlo Stanton (140 wRC+, .304 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna (144 wRC+, .274 ISO) are both smoking RHP this year and Yelich does have a 257 wRC+ with a 57.1 Hard% over the last week. J.T. Realmuto is another red hot bat with a 274 wRC+ and 47.1 Hard% over the last week. The Marlins have the second highest run projection on the board (5.06) behind the Cubs tonight, so players will probably want some exposure to their big bats, but Stephenson does have talent.

Robert Stephenson allows a ton of walks (9.9%) with fly balls (42.4%) leading to some significant home run issues (2.17 HR/9). That is a terrible recipe for a pitcher, but a great combination for the St. Louis hitters tonight. He has sketchy control and allows the fly balls to both right and left-handed batters, which puts Cardinals batters into play in all formats. They can be used in cash games, stacks, or as one-offs. Stephen Piscotty (.166 ISO vs RHP) is ridiculously priced at $3.4K on DraftKings, and is basically a must play in cash games, and at $3K on FanDuel, we can use him in cash there as well. Matt Carpenter (142 wRC+, .385 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP) returns to the lineup tonight and is the clear best second baseman option. Jhonny Peralta (.151 ISO vs RHP) is also underpriced on DraftKings at $3.1K. Anyone in this lineup could homer tonight, but the players to focus on are Brandon Moss (.304 ISO, 42.8% hard hits vs RHP) and Randal Grichuk (.243 ISO, 42.2% hard hits vs RHP).