Ronald Guzman Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

It has been a weird season for Fiers, who started out the season with a 7.03 ERA through April, then had a 2.45 ERA from May to July. Over the past month, Fiers has been getting roughed up again with an 8.34 ERA, 5.30 SIERA, 1.94 WHIP, 4.37 HR/9 and .436 xwOBA over the past 30 days. He gets a start tonight in Globe Life Park vs. the Rangers, who don’t have a great lineup but do have a very hitter-friendly home park that will make it tough for Fiers to turn it around. Shin-Soo Choo (.388 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Nick Solak (.362), Danny Santana (.347), Nomar Mazara (.346), Ronald Guzman (.341), Willie Calhoun (.325), Rougned Odor (.308) and Elvis Andrus (.296) are all potential options for tonight. Odor has mostly had a rough year, but does have a .389 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. All Rangers’ bats are $4.4k or more on DK with the exception of Ronald Guzman ($3.8k) and Jeff Mathis ($2k) who will both likely bat at the bottom of the order. Fiers has a bit of a reverse platoon split, but it’s not drastic and he can be targeted from either side of the plate. The Rangers currently have a 5.13 implied total vs. Fiers and the A’s.

Blake Snell started off the season incredibly well, but has really fallen apart over the past 30 days with an 11.94 ERA, 4.75 xFIP, 5.00 SIERA, and 10.8% K-BB. Over that time frame Snell has seen his dominant curveball collect a pitch value of -3.9; the pitch was worth a pitch value of 13.2 last year. His changeup has also gone downhill recently with a -3.9 value after it earned a 7.2 mark in 2018. Looking at his Statcast data, his curveball had a spin rate of 2517 RPM in 2018 and has averaged 2487 RPM so far in 2019, though over the past month that number has fallen to 2359. Snell’s offspeed pitches (curve, change, slider) over the past month have been ineffective as he’s allowed a .332 xwOBA when using them. He’s also given up a .358 xwOBA with his fastball over that time. Especially with Snell expected to see high ownership today, Rangers bats make for an interesting leverage stack with Snell clearly trying to regain his feel in the mound. Joey Gallo (.398 xwOBA vs. LHP), Asdrubal Cabrera (.331), Willie Calhoun (.329), Ronald Guzman (.324), Elvis Andrus (.312) and Danny Santana (.306) are all options if you’re looking to get contrarian. Delino Deshields (.276) has struggled vs. LHP this year but has a decent .310 career wOBA vs. LHP and will lead off at just $3.9k on Draftkings. Gallo has been their hottest bat with a .411 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Danny Santana at .394.

Jordan Zimmermann returned from nearly a two month layoff to allow three runs in four innings against the Pirates, striking out four of 19 batters. His velocity was down and he had just a 6.7 SwStr%. His 91.2 Z-Contact% on the season is second worst on the board to go along with his 89.7 mph aEV. While Texas bats project well here (5.14 implied runs), they could still get lost in the shuffle with a full one-third of the board (10 teams) at 4.9 runs or higher tonight. LHBs have a particular advantage on a potentially still compromised pitcher (.367 wOBA, .350 xwOBA last 12 months). It doesn’t hurt this offense either that Joey Gallo (141 wRC+, .335 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is expected back tonight. Shin-soo Choo (137 wRC+, .216 ISO), Danny Santana (134 wRC+, .248 ISO), Nomar Mazara (103 wRC+, .188 ISO), Rougned Odor (94 wRC+, .222 ISO) and Ronald Guzman (113 wRC+, .228 ISO) are all dangerous hitters with power here.

The Rangers will face Ivan Nova this afternoon in the heat at Globe Life Park and have a juicy 6.16 implied total. Nova continues to hang onto a rotation spot despite been terrible this year with a 6.01 ERA / 4.73 xFIP / 5.04 SIERA with an 8 % K-BB and 8.2% SwStr. His Statcast numbers are just as bad as he has a .355 xwOBA allowed, 88.4 MPH aEV and 7.4 % barrel rate. Nova is slightly more vulnerable vs. lefties; he has a .356 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB since 2018 compared to a .329 mark vs. RHB. The Rangers have just 2 right-handed bats in their projected lineup. Willie Calhoun (.460 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Shin-Soo Choo (.399), Nomar Mazara (.371), Ronald Guzman (.367) and Danny Santana (.354) are all great lefty options that mash RHP. Also in play are Elvis Andrus (.303), Rougned Odor (.284) and Asdrubal Cabrera (.276). Mazara cranked 2 homers yesterday and has been their hottest hitter over the past 14 days with a .392 xwOBA. Mazara and Calhoun are both great values on Draftings at just $4.4k each. Cabrera, Odor and Guzman are all $4k or less. Rangers bats will likely see decent ownership but they are in a great spot here and arguably underpriced given the matchup.

There should be a ton of runs to go around tonight in Arlington as two bad pitchers will faceoff in the heat at Globe Life Park. The game currently has an O/U of 11.5 and WeatherEdge is expecting an increase in runs scored (WeatherEdge available for premium subscribers). Reynaldo Lopez has been terrible this year with a 6.31 ERA / 5.71 xFIP / 5.10 SIERA with a 11% K-BB, 49.4% FB rate, 39% hard contact rate and 1.59 WHIP. He also has a .372 xwOBA, 10.4% barrel rate and 90.5 MPH aEV on the year. The Rangers lineup is missing some pop without Joey Gallo and Hunter Pence in the order but still has plenty of good options in this matchup. Shin-Soo Choo (140 wRC+, .225 ISO vs. RHP since 2018), Danny Santana (129 wRC+, .227 ISO), Asdrubal Cabrera (117 wRC+, .228 ISO), Willie Calhoun (111 wRC+, .196 ISO), Ronald Guzman (105 wRC+, .215 ISO), Nomar Mazara (.101 wRC+, .165 ISO), and Elvis Andrus (86 wRC+, .128 ISO) are all good options in tonight’s lineup. Santana has been their hottest hitter with a .360 xwOBA over the last 2 weeks, followed by Guzman at .356. All Rangers’ bats are available for $5k or less on Draftkings and will likely be a popular stack tonight. They have a 6.19 implied line vs. Lopez and the White Sox.

Tyler Mahle has sustained a 9.5 SwStr% over the last month (the same as his season rate) with a dip in his strikeout rate to 21.5% over this span, pulling his season K/SwStr below 2.7 and into a more acceptable range. Mahle has excellent control (5 BB%), but depends too much on called strikes and pitches up in the zone without missing enough bats. A resultant 90 mph aEV has generated a 20 HR/FB, averaging one per start. His major issue is with LHBs, whom have a .399 wOBA, 43.1 Hard% and 30.5 GB% over the last year against him. This is where the absence of Joey Gallo hurts, but the Rangers still have LH power in this lineup. In fact, among those in the projected lineup tonight, only Nomar Mazara (95 wRC+, .151 ISO) is below a .180 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Shin-Soo Choo (140 wRC+, .226 ISO) should be considered one of the stronger overall bats on this slate, while Ronald Guzman (117 wRC+, .226 ISO) is a somewhat sneaky home run threat. While the park in Cincinnati is an overall run environment downgrade for the Texas offense, it’s actually more generous in terms of power. Losing their DH, the Rangers sit right in the middle of the board at 4.3 implied runs, but LHBs are still plenty viable here. Incredibly, this will be just Mahle’s fourth home start of the season. His 20 HR/FB has come pitching mostly in power suppressing parks this year.

A 4.04 implied run line is actually quite low for the Rangers at home and while Zack Greinke is a quality pitcher, he allowed 20 HRs in 24 starts (88 mph aEV) and has struck out just 15 of his last 75 batters. With under 15 points of separation in his platoon splits by both wOBA and xwOBA since last season, players can consider batters from either side against him, but all of the power lies in the LHBs from Texas. At least some isolated exposure to Shin-Soo Choo (136 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHp last calendar year), Rougned Odor (108 wRC+, .209 ISO) and/or Joey Gallo (112 wRC+, .276 ISO) could be supported here. While Ronald Guzman (97 wRC+, .194 ISO) is not on their levels yet, he did homer three times at Yankee Stadium last week and has decent numbers, while still costing just $2.5K on FanDuel.