Ryan Carpenter Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Ryan Carpenter has allowed nine HRs and struck out just 19 over his six starts. He’s allowed a 90.5 mph aEV and 11.1% Barrels/BBE with a 48.1 Hard%, according to Statcast, that’s bottom 3% of the league. While a 7.89 ERA is not entirely confirmed by his estimators, a 5.27 SIERA is the lowest of them, still denoting a pitcher with significant problems, not even taking the quality of the contact into account. His 91.3 Z-Contact% is second worst on the board, while a .393 xwOBA does take that contact into account and is easily the worst mark on the board. The Tribe have not made a lot of noise with the bats this year, but are still one of nine teams above five implied runs in this top matchup. RHBs are above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against Carpenter over the last calendar year. Francisco Lindor (151 wRC+, .262 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is having his normal season. Carlos Santana (136 wRC+, .187 ISO) has rebounded. Jordan Luplow (146 wRC+, .347 ISO) and Oscar Mercado (88 wRC+, .219 ISO, 62.5 Hard%) are newer additions who have produced in smaller samples against southpaws and generally find themselves in the upper half of the lineup against them now. Roberto Perez (122 wRC+, .215 ISO) is an affordable catching option.

Ryan Carpenter has a 6.70 ERA, 5.04 xFIP and 5.02 SIERA over 48 innings in his big league career, along with a 41% hard contact rate, 8.2% SwStr and 10.4% K-BB. Even worse, he has a .397 xwOBA with a 11.6% barrel rate for his career. The Tigers also have the worst bullpen xFIP in the league with a 5.12 mark so far this year, further enhancing the outlook for Twins’ bats this afternoon. CJ Cron (165 wRC+, .290 ISO vs. LHP since 2018), Nelson Cruz (153 wRC+, .306 ISO), Byron Buxton (113 wRC+, .210 ISO), Mitch Garver (105 wRC+, .150 ISO), Eddie Rosario (101 wRC+, .152 ISO) and Max Kepler (99 wRC+, .173 ISO) are all solid options this afternoon. Miguel Sano is also a great option as he has a 133 wRC+ so far this year in the midst of a bounce-back season. Jorge Polanco has just an 81 wRC+ vs. LHP since 2018, but has an improved 106 wRC+ vs. LHP so far this year and is leading off for the Twins today. The Twins have a juicy 5.79 implied line vs. Carpenter and the Tigers Sunday.

Ryan Carpenter has gotten better results in his last two starts (3 ER – 10 IP – 8 K), but his 23.1 HR/FB (six in four starts) is worst on the board. His 44.8 Z-O-Swing% is fourth worst. His ERA and all of his estimators are above five with his actual ERA and DRA above seven. His 12.3% Barrels/BBE is third worst on the board, his 50.8% 95+ mph EV is second worst. While xwOBA concedes 71 points of Carpenter’s .408 wOBA against same-handed batters over the last calendar year (just six starts total), it exactly confirms his .416 wOBA against RHBs. At 5.41 implied runs, the Rays are right in the middle of that pack on the top third of the board above five runs tonight. Key bats in the Tampa Bay projected lineup are Tommy Pham (140 wRC+, .140 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Avisail Garcia (119 wRC+, .222 ISO), who are both above a 270 wRC+ over the last week. Yandy Diaz (134 wRC+, .217 ISO) is 0 for 8 since returning from the IL this weekend.

We got to see the rare pitching duel between the Tigers and Orioles in Baltimore last night, but a repeat performance shouldn’t be expected on Wednesday. Ryan Carpenter has just an 8.0 SwStr% over three starts with 49% of his contact above a 95 mph EV, resulting in a 27.8 HR/FB so far. While neither that or his 9.00 ERA are likely sustainable, a 4.66 SIERA is his lowest estimator, while sitting on a .356 xwOBA. Carpenter’s career is still a very small sample, but batters from either side of the plate are above a .400 wOBA against him. Hanser Alberto (172 wRC+, .169 ISO) and Renato Nunez (115 wRC+, .219 ISO) are the only batters in the Baltimore projected lineup above average against LHP over the last calendar year, but Carpenter seems to make most hitters above average against him.

John Means showed some potential in early starts for the O’s, but has just a 12.8 K% and 6.9 SwStr% over his last five with a 5.58 SIERA and .357 xwOBA. RHBs have a career .324 wOBA (.343 xwOBA) against him. He’ll have to face a few more slightly potent bats against LHP, including Miguel Cabrera (165 wRC+, .147 ISO, 50 Hard%), Nick Castellanos (165 wRC+, .213 ISO, 50.5 Hard%) and Ronny Rodriguez (107 wRC+, .227 ISO). Both teams are within a quarter of a run of five implied runs on Wednesday night, but neither is among the top three or four projected offenses tonight.

The Cleveland Indians are expected to produce more offense than any other team this afternoon (5.37 implied run line) against Ryan Carpenter, who just made his first major league start at the age of 27 on April 1st. It lasted three innings. Without a minor league strikeout rate above 19% prior to reaching AAA in 2016, he's been at 24.1% over his last 197.1 innings at that level. The Tribe mauled another Detroit lefty last night and Francisco Lindor (148 wRC+, .236 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) remains in the cleanup spot (325 wRC+, 58.8 Hard% last seven days) even with Edwin Encarnacion (127 wRC+, .256 ISO) returning to the lineup behind him. Jose Ramirez (169 wRC+, .297 ISO) is the other high upside bat, though the Cleveland lineup also has potential value for less than $3K at both the top and bottom. Rajai Davis (73 wRC+, .102 ISO) leads off again. Brandon Guyer (120 wRC+, .180 ISO) hit a grand slam last night. Roberto Perez (142 wRC+, .279 ISO, 47.5 Hard%) has been more potent against southpaws than people might think. While they may only see today's starter for one appearance, Detroit has one of the worst bullpens in the majors behind him (4.67 xFIP).