Ryan Howard Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Bartolo Colon's last outing was a nonstory because his opponent was dealing with the tragic loss of a teammate. After revisiting Colon's performance over the last couple of weeks, his hard contact allowed stands out, sitting at a ridiculous 49%. When you combine a 15% strikeout rate with this kind of hard contact and a 41% flyball percentage, it is hard to picture Colon getting through this outing without giving up a longball or two. Over the last 14 days, Colon is serving up a generous 2.00 HR/9, a home run rate that supports the notion that his hard contact should cause him trouble today. Look to Cameron Rupp as a sneaky play, considering he has an elite k rate of 15% over the last week and a hard contact percentage of 36% on at-bats ending in contact. Ryan Howard is worth consideration, as well, since he is hitting the ball hard in 57% of at-bats ending in contact over the last week, but his 43% strikeout rate over that period takes some shine off of him as a DFS play.

Robert Gsellman struck out eight of 26 Phillies through seven shutout innings of three-hit ball in his best major league start last time out. While his 2.56 ERA still over-states his performance so far (3.92 SIERA), he generated a 75% ground ball rate and -12.5 Hard-Soft% in that game too. That’s about as dominant as a pitcher can be. He now has a 54.4 GB% with a reasonable 13.2 K-BB% through 38.2 innings. The Phillies may be a bit more prepared for him the second time around, but it’s still one of the top spots on the board (16.9 K-BB% at home, 15.8 K-BB% vs RHP). While we shouldn't expect that type of dominance again, at a cost below $7K, he could be one of the better values on the board and make a great paring with a higher priced guy on two pitcher sites. There is one concern though. As an in-established arm in a game the Mets need, Terry Collins might be quick to pull the trigger on him should he get into trouble. With the Phillies projected for just 3.4 runs that may not be a problem though. Ryan Howard (105 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP since 2015) still has some power in that bat at a reasonable price on either site.

Mike Foltynewicz has had mixed results, but has been showing some strong strikeout upside since the middle of August (24.8 K% last six starts). He’s in a great spot hosting the Phillies tonight too, but is coming off a two week layoff with a calf issue. The Braves have no reason to push him tonight. Not knowing how long he'll be for this game affects the Phillies bats too, though LHBs have a .367 wOBA against him since last season and Ryan Howard (106 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 227 wRC+ and 62.5 Hard% over the last week and may be the salary saver at First Base tonight for $3.1K or less on either site.

Julio Teheran has seen a bit of a drop in his strikeouts with a 19.1% rate over his last five starts, but he continues to display excellent control with just a 4.8% walk rate. In the guessing game that is the final week of the regular season, we have to assume that the Braves will be playing to win their final games in Turner Field. That’s obviously a pretty huge stretch in searching for a narrative that may not even matter, but if it means that Teheran will be allowed to go deep into this game as a home favorite against a weak opponent, he becomes a viable SP2 on DraftKings and a more than viable play on FanDuel with the savings his salary provides. We could also do worse than going home run hunting with Ryan Howard (.267 ISO vs RHP) for his low price tag, as Teheran allows a 47.6% FB% and 34.1% Hard% to left-handed batters.

Gabriel Ynoa has been pitching out of the bullpen for the most part but has recently been pressed into starting duty. He had mediocre numbers at the AAA level this year that included a 3.97 ERA, a 4.87 FIP, and a very telling 11.9% strikeout rate. That’s right, his strikeout rate was 11.9% in the minor leagues so Don’t be fooled by his 25.0% strikeout rate in ten innings of major league duty. We can definitely fire up some Philadelphia bats in this spot, with significant value available on DraftKings. The prices of Roman Quinn, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco (.158 ISO vs RHP), and Ryan Howard (.272 ISO vs RHP) are puzzling to say the least. Odubel Herrera (125 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .168 ISO vs RHP) is also in play but is probably the most accurately priced of the Phillies hitters. They are a cheap stack that would also allow you to pay up for pitching, though that may not be ideal given the lack of expensive pitchers tonight.

Seth Lugo has a .235 BABIP, 84.6 LOB% and 7.4 HR/FB which has led to a estimators two runs above his 2.35 ERA. He has just an 8.8 K-BB% since moving to the rotation with a 40.2 Hard%. He may be a disaster in waiting. Unfortunately, the Phillies don't have the type of offense that can take advantage and are projected for just 3.5 runs tonight, despite all the warning signs in Lugo's profile. Odubel Herrera (125 wRC+, .169 ISO) has been by far the top hitter against RHP in this lineup, but carries a very expensive price tag. Ryan Howard (87 wRC+, .263 ISO) is still showing quite a bit of power when he does make contact. He may be the most viable choice in this lineup for $3.5K on DK and $1K less on FD.

The Phillies and their 29th ranked wOBA against RHP are typically not a team we want to target in MLB DFS but they are facing Jacob Esch, a rookie SP making just his second start for the Miami Marlins. Esch was just average in the minors so you can either look at a couple of Phillies bats as one off additions to your lineups or go with a team stack that will likely be under owned. Maikel Franco, Ryan Howard, and Odubel Herrera are the three top targets but you can also look at Cesar Hernandez (leading off), Cameron Rupp (batting fifth), and Aaron Altherr (batting sixth) as secondary options. Jerad Eickhoff takes the mound for the Phillies - he has little upside as a road underdog and is not worth rostering.

De La Cruz could be the worst pitcher on this slate, and that is enough to put Phillies bats into consideration. De La Cruz has a 5.25 SIERA with a 12.2% strikeout rate this season and has shown no real skill set against either right or left-handed batters. Obviously, the Phillies are not loaded with hitters we to love to target against right-handed pitching, but the price tags on Odubel Herrera (121 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .159 ISO vs RHP) and Ryan Howard (.263 ISO, 46% hard hits) are very hard to ignore. Freddy Galvis (.176 ISO vs RHP)) could be added to a Phillies stack along with Maikel Franco (.161 ISO vs RHP), both of whom are very cheap. Herrera, Franco and Galvis are all especially interesting on DraftKings given an egregious pricing error that has the trio priced at minimum salary. Unfortunately the individual numbers for the Phillies bats against right-handed pitching are not great, but De La Cruz is bad enough to attack at these prices.

There may not be any pitcher in the league who is worse than James Shields right now. For the season, he has a 5.30 SIERA with a 14.7% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate. Over the last month, that strikeout rate is all the way down to 8.6% while the walks are up to 10.3%. Add in all the fly balls and hard hits and it’s really not all that surprising he has allowed 27 runs in his last four starts. Unfortunately, it’s never easy to get excited about stacking a Phillies team that ranks 28th in wOBA against right-handed pitching, but honestly, it's hard to envision Shields having success against any offense right now. From an individual matchup perspective, Odubel Herrera (125 wRC+, .362 wOBA, .166 ISO vs RHP) is the only player who looks to be in play for any format, while Ryan Howard (.264 ISO vs RHP) is the tournament option of all tournament options. However, this entire lineup is in play for stacks against Shields.