Ryan Raburn Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Ryan Raburn scratched Saturday; Chris Heisey replaces and will bat second
Raburn has officially been scratched from the Washington Nationals lineup for tonight's game against the Arizona Diamondbacks due to an unspecified reason. He'll be replaced in the lineup by Chris Heisey, who will take over the outfield duties and bat second. This lineup change will demote Wilmer Difo down to the eighth spot in the order from his original two-hole position, making him a much less appealing option. However, the remainder of the Nationals previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
Michael Taylor scratched from lineup Wednesday; Ryan Raburn to start and bat seventh
Taylor's scratch was vaguely attributed to "soreness," so it seems like it's just a rest day. Raburn will enter the lineup in his absence in the seventh spot against Marlins starter Dan Straily. He's only made eight plate appearances against righties this season, so we don't have too much data on him from 2017. However, in 2016, he accumulated 138 plate appearances in split and produced some poor numbers: 36.2% K%, .268 wOBA, .134 ISO. He was able to make plenty of hard contact though (38.5%) and posted a 33.3% FB% and 15.4% HR/FB. Straily has struggled against RHB this year - 38.7% Hard%, 46.8% FB%, .227 ISO, .327 wOBA - but Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon, the only other RHB in the lineup today, are clearly more favorable options. Both guys have wOBAs of at least .345 and ISOs of at least .186 vs RHP in 2017. Rendon is particularly appealing here given his move to cleanup and his 45.3% FB% against RHP this year.
Lots of cheap, top of the lineup Outfield options to compliment high priced pitching tonight
Players looking to pay up for Clayton Kershaw and several expensive bats have a lot of cheap options at the tops of some decently projected lineups tonight to help them along. Ryan Raburn bats second for the minimum on DraftKings against the R.A. Dickey in one of the two lineups projected for six runs tonight. The Padres open with Jose Pirela ($3.1K DK, $2.5K FD) and Franchy Cordero ($2.5K DK, $2.4K FD) against Scott Feldman tonight. Jaycob Brugman ($2.2K either site) leads off for Oakland against Jose Urena. Joey Rickard ($3.2K DK, $2.5K FD) leads off against Derek Holland. We've covered several OF options, but there are some infield cheapies as well. Wilmer Flores has three HRs against Jon Lester and bats second. Further down in the order, we find Matt Davidson ($2.9K DK, $2.4K FD), who homered last night and has a .250 ISO vs RHP since last season.
R.A. Dickey has a minuscule 1.9% K-BB% this season
Despite tossing a gem against an exploitable Philadelphia Phillies lineup his last time out, R.A. Dickey continues to be an extremely hittable pitcher at this stage of his career, allowing at least five runs in two of his last three starts, but he seems to somehow do just enough, consistently enough, to limit damage that the Atlanta Braves are able to keep utilizing him as an innings eater for their young and eventually up and coming squad. This year, Dickey has seen a drastic drop in his already low strikeout rate, down to 12.4% to go along with a 10.6% walk rate. As usual with his knuckleball, Dickey has managed to induce groundballs at a respectable clip (51.1%) and limit hard contact to just 28.4% of the time. With the aforementioned low strikeouts and high walks, it's difficult to imagine Dickey's 4.86 ERA improving with a terrible 5.52 SIERA. When attacking Dickey with opposing batters, a problem arises with a bit of guesswork in figuring out which individual batters to utilize against him, as the nature of a knuckleball makes at bat outcomes relatively unpredictable. This makes the Washington Nationals more of an offense to stack or fade in tournaments tonight since there should be plenty of baserunners with a high probability of home runs but difficult to predict where said production will come from. Bryce Harper (183 wRC+, .454 wOBA, .371 ISO vs RHP), Ryan Zimmerman (178 wRC+, .447 wOBA, .301 ISO vs RHP), and Daniel Murphy (142 wRC+, .391 wOBA, .204 ISO vs RHP) are the top hitters to target in tournament stack, while Trea Turner (117 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .203 ISO vs RHP) and Ryan Raburn, who is minimum priced on DraftKings, are more logical fits as hitters to round out a Nationals stack in tournaments opposed to individual one-offs.
Robbie Ray has the fifth highest K% in baseball, but also the 4th highest hart hit rate
Robbie Ray allows the fourth highest rate of hard contact in baseball (36.4%), which is a great concern in this park, but he’s countering that with the fifth highest strikeout rate (28.4%) in the majors. An 8.7 BB% keeps him the only one in the top eight with a K-BB below 20% though (19.7). While there's still occasional hesitation to use him at home, this is one of the better spots he’ll find. The Rockies are a terrible road offense (85 wRC+) in a park that’s still a major downgrade from Coors and they strike out 22.6% of the time with an 87 wRC+ vs LHP. It's not perfect, but a price tag around $8K is a bit too low for the potential upside in this spot. For the Rockies, because he does allow so much hard contact, players could look at Ryan Raburn (103 wRC+, .231 ISO vs LHP this season) and D.J. LeMahieu (133 wRC+, .172 ISO vs LHP this season) at a reduced cost on DraftKings tonight. Nolan Arenado is slightly reduced as well, but has just a 91 wRC+ (.204 ISO) vs LHP since last season.
Blackmon OUT at Coors against Matt Moore, but replaced with another LHB (Tapia)
Matt Moore followed up his near no-hitter against the Dodgers with another strong performance, striking out seven of 21 Diamondbacks with just one walk. Still, he brings merely league average strikeout and walk rates into a dangerous spot in Colorado, where the Rockies are projected for the second highest run total today (5.9). Moore has very little platoon split with RHBs (.320 wOBA) just 15 points ahead of LHBs since last season with batters from both sides hitting him hard at a league average 31% of the time. However, RHBs have 23 of his 31 HRs allowed since last season. Charlie Blackmon is out today, but is unfortunately replaced with another LHB in the rookie Raimel Tapia, who players still have to strongly consider for just $3K on DraftKings. The lineup spot and park make him worth that cost in just about any spot. The top bats are Arenado (113 wRC+, .248 ISO vs LHP this season) and LeMahieu (139 wRC+, .183 ISO vs LHP this season) with Raburn (111 wRC+, .241 ISO vs LHP this season) and Cardullo (312 wRC+ last seven days) bringing the value for $3.3K or less on either site.
Nolan Arenado (.300 ISO vs RHP since 2015) faces a reverse platoon RHP he has three HRs against
Chase Anderson has estimators a run above his 3.00 ERA over the last month with 22.2 K% above an 8.0 SwStr% that hasn’t budged. Not much seems to have changed except the results. RHBs (.360 wOBA, 35.5 Hard%) have hit him much better than LHBs (.312 wOBA, 27.1 Hard%) since last season, moving Nolan Arenado (124 wRC+, .300 ISO vs RHP since 2015) to the top of our wish list in this lineup. He adds three HRs in just 21 career PAs against Chase Anderson with 95 mph aEV on the last 14 batted balls. Many of the other Colorado bats are aggressively priced. Milwaukee is still a hitter's park, but it's not Coors. Ryan Raburn is the Colorado answer to Anderson's reverse split and we might have to take a look at any starter for less than $3K on DraftKings in a good spot, but he has just a 55 wRC+ and .148 ISO vs RHP since last season.
Rockies have 3rd highest run projection at home tonigth (5.6), but have been bad vs LHP (22.5K%, 90 wRC+)
The Rockies are projected for 5.6 runs tonight (third highest), but that's almost entirely park related because they aren’t very good against LHP (90 wRC+, 22.5 K%). In fact, Gio Gonzalez may almost be too cheap on DraftKings ($5.9K). He does have a 22.5 K% (matching the Rockies vs LHP) this season with a 4.24 ERA and league average estimators. Even if we don't expect him to pitch well, he doesn't have to do too much to cover that price, while he's been very tough on LHBs (.274 wOBA since last season) and the Rockies run three of them out there tonight (two of the top four). DJ LeMahieu (134 wRC+, .168 ISO vs LHP this season) may be tonight's top second base option, while Nolan Arenado (126 wRC+, .283 ISO vs LHP this season) is always a strong bat at home. Ryan Raburn has not been as good vs LHP this year (93 wRC+), but still has a .234 ISO against him, while the cost (below $3.5K on either site) and environment make him a decent value play.
Martin Perez owns a 0.8% K-BB% to RHB
Perez has allowed a minimum of five earned runs in four of his last six starts. It can sometimes be frustrating to attack Perez because he occasionally finds a way to limit the opponent's damage with a high ground ball rate (53.5%), but has a frightening 9.7% against right-handed batters that just needs to be targeted. Perez has a much higher ground ball rate to left-handed hitters, knocking them down a peg as viable options, but the 33.4% hard contact rate and 4.96 xFIP to righties exhibits his vast downside. Nolan Arenado (137 wRC+, .404 wOBA, .296 ISO vs LHP) is the only Colorado bat that can really be considered in any format. The remaining Rockies righties, D.J. LeMahieu (129 wRC+, .392 wOBA, .162 ISO vs LHP) , Ryan Raburn (.243 ISO vs LHP), Nick Hundley (.197 ISO vs LHP), and Mark Reynolds, should be reserved for tournaments if stacking Colorado.
Ryan Raburn scratched Friday; David Dahl is now in the lineup batting 7th
With Raburn scratched, Mark Reynolds will move up a spot and bat sixth with David Dahl filling in for Raburn batting 7th. Not much changes here as a result as the Rockies bats aren't recommended plays against Steven Matz. Having an extra lefty in the lineup does work in Matz's favor.