Ryan Zimmerman Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Ryan Weathers hasn’t been nearly as good as his 2.63 ERA (.241 BABIP, 87 LOB%) according to estimators that are above four and a half with just a 10.7 K-BB%. In fact, RHBs have a .321 wOBA, but .356 xwOBA against him, according to Statcast. Looking at the projected Washington lineup, all seven batters with more than 10 PAs against LHP exceeds a 100 wRC+ against them since last season and of the six RHBs that includes, only Trea Turner (189 wRC+, .279 ISO) costs more than $3K on either site. There are certainly some issues here in that San Diego is a negative run environment and Weathers will not go through the lineup more than twice (if that), but with a 4.43 FIP and 4.44 xFIP over the last 30 days, the San Diego bullpen has not been dominant and the opportunity to more comfortably afford some of tonight’s top pitchers might make Washington bats worth the risk. Ryan Zimmerman (129 wRC+, .219 ISO) generally bats cleanup against southpaws, while Yan Gomes (150 wRC+, .305 ISO) can fill an often difficult catcher’s spot. Without a confirmed starting pitcher of their own yet, oddsmakers have not yet set run totals for this game, but it’s probably a safe bet that the Nationals will be on the bottom half of the board tonight, but with a quality lineup that has resulted in a team 106 wRC+ vs LHP this year, their bats should have some value tonight.

Ironically, with similarly expected conditions to Yankee Stadium tonight (temperatures in the mid-60s and negligible wind effects), Weather Edge is showing a run and power decline in such games, which makes quite a bit more sense. Overall, this park has been a positive run environment, though not as much of a power haven as Yankee Stadium.

Dakota Hudson is the low man on the pitching pole today. His 18 K% is more than 10 points below any other pitcher today with a 5.08 SIERA that’s the only mark above four and a .335 xwOBA that’s more than 30 points higher than anyone else. What he does do is keep the ball on the ground for the most part (56.9%) with that mark jumping to 63.9% against RHBs, who had a .285 wOBA and .302 xwOBA against him this year. It makes one wonder if either Asdrubal Cabrera (99 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP) or Matt Adams (89 wRC+, .138 ISO) could see the field over Howie Kendrick (136 wRC+, .221 ISO) or Ryan Zimmerman (65 wRC+, .148 ISO) tonight, as LHBs had a .347 wOBA (.369 xwOBA) with a 49.6 GB% against Hudson, but why fix what’s not broken? Juan Soto (155 wRC+, .303 ISO) may be the top overall bat on the slate. Adam Eaton (108 wRC+, .152 ISO) may be your top value. The Nationals top the board with 4.23 implied runs.

On the brink of elimination, a lineup shuffle for the Cardinals in game three had no effect, and there’s probably not much more they could do in game four either. With a 3-0 series lead, Patrick Corbin likely has the longest leash tonight and costs less than $10K on either site. His 28.5 K%, 3.88 SIERA, 3.09 DRA and .303 xwOBA hardly stand out on a four man board that includes Gerrit Cole or even his own rotation, though he was likely one of the top 10 pitchers in the National League. Corbin did have that awful relief outing against the Dodgers, but still struck out 14 of the 41 he faced in the series. Corbin does have the highest aEV (88.9 mph) and Barrels/BBE (9.4%) on the board, so it’s the strikeout rate that really gives him value and it does make some middle of the order St Louis bats interesting here. Paul Goldschmidt (148 wRC+), Marcell Ozuna (92 wRC+), Jose Martinez (160 wRC+) and Tommy Edman (151 wRC+) all exceeded a .260 ISO vs LHP this year, while Yadier Molina (130 wRC+, .147 ISO) had a .382 xwOBA with the platoon advantage, but has the disadvantage of having the speed of a 37 year-old catcher.

Adam Wainwright is starting for the Cardinals this afternoon and has quietly been an effective pitcher in his age 38 season despite appearing to be in decline in 2017 and 2018. Wainwright posted a 4.19 ERA / 4.39 xFIP / 4.70 SIERA with a 1.43 WHIP, 12% K-BB, .327 xwOBA allowed and 6.9% barrel rate over 171 and 2/3 innings this year. It’s worth noting that Wainwright has been a much better pitcher at home: since 2015, Wainwright has posted a 3.06 ERA / 3.44 FIP, 12.7% K-BB and .311 xwOBA allowed at home compared to a 6.09 ERA / 4.83 FIP, 10.2% K-BB and .341 xwOBA allowed on the road. Wainwright has also been a bit more vulnerable to lefties, posting a .343 xwOBA vs. LHB compared to a .309 xwOBA allowed vs. RHP since 2015. Wainwright last pitched on 10/6 (7 and 2/3 innings, no runs, 8 Ks) so he is pitching on full rest.

The Nationals had just a 100 wRC+ vs. RHP during the regular season, but do have a league-leading .350 xwOBA vs. RHP over the past 30 days. They currently have an implied total of just 3.75 vs. Wainwright. Here’s their projected order: 1. Turner (.339 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), 2. Eaton (.348), 3. Rendon (.410), 4. Soto (.422), 5. Kendrick (.413), 6. Zimmerman (.327), 7. Taylor (.254), 8. Gomes (.268). Rendon and Kendrick have been the Nats’ most productive hitters this postseason with xwOBAs over .425. Taylor (.189), Gomes (.203) and Turner (.261) have struggled a bit. If BVP is your thing, it’s worth nothing that Ryan Zimmerman has an other-worldly .833 xwOBA vs. Wainwright over 40 PA since 2015. Once Wainwright is out of the game, they’ll face a Cardinals ‘pen that has allowed a .320 xwOBA over the past 30 days, regular season and postseason included.

Max Scherzer gets the nod for the Nationals and last pitched on 10/7 versus the Dodgers, allowing just 1 earned run over 7 innings with a 7/3 K/BB ratio. 35 year old Scherzer is coming off another great regular season and actually set career bests in K%, K-BB%, FIP and SwStr%. Scherzer is a bit more vulnerable vs. lefties (.279 xwOBA vs. LHB, .224 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2015) but the Cardinals project to have just four lefties in their lineup today. Overall, the Cardinals had a 93 wRC+ and 23.2% K rate vs. RHP on the year. The Cardinals currently have just a 3.25 implied line vs. Scherzer.

Here’s the Cardinals projected lineup: 1. Fowler (.338 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), 2. Wong (.308), 3. Goldschmidt (.343), 4. Ozuna (.380), 5. Molina (.305), 6. Carpenter (.325), 7. Edman (.324), 8. DeJong (.328). Marcell Ozuna has been their hottest hitter in the playoffs with a .456 xwOBA, followed by Paul Goldschmidt at .408. The rest of the projected lineup has been held under a .285 xwOBA thus far. The coldest bats are Paul DeJong (.169) and Yadi Molina (.217). When / if the Cardinals chase Scherzer from the game, they will face a Nationals bullpen that has allowed a .323 xwOBA over the past 30 days.

Glenn Sparkman has pitched to a 5.09 ERA / 5.66 xFIP / 5.51 SIERA this year with just a 12.1% K rate, 5.9% BB rate and 6.7% SwStr. He’s also allowed a 42% hard contact rate, a .372 xwOBA, 8.7% barrel rate and a 91.4 MPH aEV. Over the past 30 days, Sparkman has been even worse with a 6.59 ERA, 6.18 xFIP and 6.01 SIERA with a 9.8% K rate, 5.7% SwStr and a .373 xwOBA allowed. Sparkman simply does not miss nearly enough bats to get hitters out, and as a result is one of the safer pitchers to stack against. Anthony Rendon (149 wRC+, .305 ISO vs. RHP this year), Juan Soto (146 wRC+, .228 ISO), Trea Turner (114 wRC+, .230 ISO), Adam Eaton (98 wRC+, .103 ISO) and Gerardo Parra (95 wRC+, .191 ISO) are all good options in the Nats’ projected lineup this afternoon. Ryan Zimmerman (78 wRC+, .203 ISO) has lacked production this year but does own a career 109 wRC+ vs. RHP. Eaton, Zimmerman and Parra will all be available under $4k on Draftkings, while sluggers Rendon, Soto and Turner will all require $5k+ each. Soto has been the Nats’ hottest hitter over the past month with a 151 wRC+. The Nats currently have a 6.73 implied total vs. Sparkman and the Royals and figure to be a pretty popular stack on the afternoon slate.

Matt Strahm somehow has just a 3.09 ERA this year despite not missing many bats (15.3 K%) and allowing hard contact at a high rate (53% Hard, 12.1% Soft) with just a 34.8% GB rate. His 5.37 xFIP and 5.12 SIERA prove that his run prevention thus far isn’t sustainable. Strahm faces the Nats tonight in D.C. who are ranked 5th in the MLB with a 132 wRC+ vs. LHP this year, yet somehow are projected for just 4.03 runs. This hopefully means we can throw in some Nats’ stacks with lower ownership than they might deserve. The Nationals have plenty of good options in their lineup tonight: Anthony Rendon (.429 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018), Ryan Zimmerman (.409), Victor Robles (.348) and Juan Soto (.343) make up 4 of the Nats’ top 5 in the order tonight. Adam Eaton (.273) leads off but has struggled with LHP since 2018. Yan Gomes (.372) has mashed LHP and is very affordable across the industry batting 6th. Highly-regarded prospect Carter Kieboom will be making his MLB debut tonight for the Nats after starting the year in AAA with a 186 wRC+. Kieboom will be in the 9 spot of the order but is just $3.3k on Draftkings and could prove to be a nice value in his debut.

Steven Matz isn’t a bad pitcher by any means, but there are certainly spots to stack against him as he is prone to blow ups. He is much worse vs. RHB with a .329 xwOBA against since 2017, and posted a 1.66 HR/9 vs. RHB in 2018. The Nats have stacked their lineup with righties vs. Matz and a few have some particularly impressive numbers vs. LHP. Ryan Zimmerman (.439 xwOBA vs. LHP in 2018), Anthony Rendon (.423), Yan Gomes (.366) are all in play. Juan Soto (.351) has a tough matchup as a lefty but will be sandwiched in the middle of the order and is always a threat. Brian Dozier is coming off a down 2018, but owns a .363 wOBA and 129 wRC+ vs. LHP for his career and will bat 2nd in the Nats’ order. The Nats have just a 3.74 implied total today and figure to be low owned across the industry.

With the cancellation in Boston, the Nationals now have the second highest implied run line on the board (5.20) and highest outside Coors tonight. Jeff Brigham makes his fourth start and suffers a park downgrade in Washington tonight. He's been particularly susceptible to same handed batters so far (.406 wOBA, .425 xwOBA, 50 Hard%, 5.6 GB%), which are some astonishing numbers even with just 25 faced. He's exactly 100 points better by xwOBA against LHBs, but again, the most extreme aspect is his overall 13.2 GB%. Everything in the air is a concern against a middle of the lineup with power and that's what the Nationals have in Bryce Harper (136 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP this year), Anthony Rendon (136 wRC+, .203 ISO), Juan Soto (149 wRC+, .221 ISO), and Ryan Zimmerman (92 wRC+, .206 ISO). At the top of the order, Adam Eaton (129 wRC+, .121 ISO) and Trea Turner (102 wRC+, .144 ISO) both exceed a 200 wRC+ over the last week.

Though well below the Indians, the Nationals (5.23) are still one of just two teams above five implied runs tonight. Jason Vargas has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts, but still has a 6.47 ERA and 4.48 FIP on the season. While RHBs have a .382 wOBA against him this season, Statcast flips the switch and puts LHBs (.372 xwOBA) 31 points above RHBs. He's kept the ball on the ground 40% of the time against batters from either side of the plate. Considering the run projection, Victor Robles has to be strongly considered from the leadoff spot, especially for just $2.2K on FanDuel. He's had few opportunities so far, but does have a 136 wRC+ over the last seven days. Anthony Rendon (135 wRC+, .263 ISO vs LHP this season) and Ryan Zimmerman (199 wRC+, .299 ISO) have mashed southpaws, while Bryce Harper (131 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Juan Soto (145 wRC+, .232 ISO have hit same-handed pitching very well.