Ryne Stanek Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Yonny Chirinos struck out just two of the 17 Yankees he faced in his last outing and his strikeout rate is down to just 15.7% over the last month. He’s expected to pitch the bulk of the game behind tonight’s opener (Ryne Stanek). All of his estimators are well above his ERA (3.61), including a 5.23 DRA. He’s allowed six HRs over his last 91 batters faced. A .205 BABIP is completely unsustainable and his 10.8% Barrels/BBE is third worst on the board. Tampa Bay’s use of an opener makes hitter projections a bit more difficult, but assuming Chirinos should see most of, if not the entire Yankee order twice, there’s some upside in the middle of this order with great hitting conditions expected in New York (premium subscribers have access to Weather Edge). RHBs have been average against Chirinos over the last year (.307 wOBA, .315 xwOBA). Luke Voit (148 wRC+, .164 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Gleyber Torres (114 wRC+, .185 ISO) and Gary Sanchez (88 wRC+, .230 ISO) all line up well here. The latter two are each above a 200 wRC+ over the last week. Sanchez has been destroying nearly one-third of the baseballs he makes contact with this year (29.9% Barrels/BBE). Aaron Hicks (133 wRC+, .204 ISO) may be the bargain if in this lineup though. While LHBs have just a .261 wOBA against Chirinos over the last 12 months, a 47.9 Hard% and 36.4 GB%, push his xwOBA up to .344 and make this a great spot for Hicks, who costs a very reasonable $4.1K on DraftKings. At 4.91 implied runs currently, the Yankees are only eighth highest on today’s board.

The Red Sox have been a bad offense this year for sure, but going forward they still project to be one of the better offenses in the league. Tonight they’re in Tropicana and will face Ryne Stanek for an inning or two, and then will likely face Ryan Yarbrough in long relief. This by no means is a daunting matchup for the Red Sox, but they have just a 3.92 implied total tonight which feels too low. Ryan Yarbrough is a career 4.40 xFIP pitcher, and the Red Sox have a number of bats that have been viable vs. LHP. Mookie Betts (.544 xwOBA vs. LHP last year), J.D. Martinez (.468), Xander Bogaerts (.366), Andrew Benintendi (.295) and Rafel Devers (.314) are all options tonight. J.D. Martinez (.651 xwOBA over the last 10 days), Mitch Moreland (.521), Andrew Benintendi (.455) and Xander Bogaerts (.454) have all seen the ball exceptionally well of late.

The Yankees suffer a park downgrade in Tampa Bay, who are likely going with the Ryne Stanek/Yonny Chirinos combination today. They have just a 4.28 implied run line, but there are only four teams solidly above them. Chirinos has a wOBA within four points of .300 against batters from either side of the plate this year, but an xwOBA at least 35 points above for batters from either side as well with a hard hit rate above 40%. Aaron Judge (145 wRC+, .296 ISO) and Luke Voit (154 wRC+, .296 ISO) have been exceptional against same-handed pitching this year with Andrew McCutchen (116 wRC+, .160 ISO) a leadoff bat with some value as well.

The Rays will open with Ryne Stanek at Fenway and despite what the team's plans are after him, the Red Sox are still heavily favored by Vegas. Their 5.44 implied run line is fourth highest on the board. Stanek actually has a reverse split. RHBs have a .365 wOBA and .402 xwOBA against him since last season. For Mookie Betts (154 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP last calendar year and J.D. Martinez (193 wRC+, .395 ISO), it doesn't matter who the Rays throw behind him, Xander Bogaerts (119 wRC+, .216 ISO) and Ian Kinsler (103 wRC+, .214 ISO) may even prefer a RHP. The LH portion of the Boston lineup may drop in value here, especially if Stanek is followed by a LHP. However, if it's Yonny Chirinos, batters from either side are within four points of a .360 wOBA against him this year.

The Astros will face first Ryne Stanek and then probably, mostly Ryan Yarbrough this afternoon. Both are a bit worse against RHBs. Though for Yarbrough, he has no real platoon split, xwOBA moves him up 51 points to .355 with the platoon disadvantage. It's not Houston, but Tampa is the most, and really only, negative run environment in play tonight, which has the Astros at 4.23 implied runs, right in the middle of the board. The obvious names are George Springer (146 wRC+, .203 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Jose Altuve (140 wRC+, .148 ISO) and Alex Bregman (166 wRC+, .279 ISO), who could all see Yarbrough twice, but will face Stanek first time through, whom they project similarly well against. Josh Reddick (125 wRC+, .159 ISO) and Evan Gattis (110 wRC+, .224 ISO) are less costly directly behind them in the order.

The Yankees have a 4.4 implied run line that's somewhere near the middle of the board to account for the park downgrade in Tampa Bay. The Rays will open with Ryne Stanek and then likely counter with Ryan Yarbrough. These shenanigans are less likely to a lot of effect on a Yankee lineup that hits pitchers that throw with either arm pretty good. Giancarlo Stanton (205 wRC+, .437 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is a near must if he's likely to get a couple of shots at a LHP and doesn't fall off the board against RHP either. Aaron Judge (118 wRC+, .203 ISO) may benefit from facing the RHP first. Only Brett Gardner (58 wRC+, .020 ISO) and Didi Gregorius (64 wRC+, .099 ISO) are the only two batters in the lineup below a 110 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year and they're the ones who will be facing the RHP first.

The Astros are red hot (177 wRC+, 13.1 K%, 19.7 HR/FB last seven days), yet sit near the middle of the board with 4.44 implied runs against the Tampa Bay bullpen today. The most negative run environment on the board explains a small part of that, but we know that Ryne Stanek (101 RHBs faced career with a .411 wOBA) will pitch the first inning or two and Matt Andriese (RHBs .364 wOBA, .360 xwOBA, 40.7 Hard% since last season) may pitch more of this game than any other reliever. These conditions would seem very favorable for Houston RHBs. In fact, none of the first seven batters in the lineup (either side) are below a 118 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year with the cleanup guy being the low man among those group with a 118 wRC+ and .160 ISO. The remaining six batters are all above a 125 wRC+ and .165 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. George Springer (131 wRC+, .210 ISO), Alex Bregman (135 wRC+, .198 ISO), Jose Altuve (160 wRC+, .172 ISO) and Carlos Correa (135 wRC+ ,.250 ISO) are all elite bats tonight.

Ryne Stanek will start the game for the Rays and work through the middle part of Seattle order, which is predominantly right-handed, most likely. It's expected he will then give way to Austin Pruitt, who should pitch the majority of the innings. Pruitt has a reverse split (RHBs .354 wOBA, LHBs .308 wOBA since last season) that comes with an .8.6 point difference in his ground ball rate as well. The interesting thing is that Stanek has a reverse split in his limited big league work as well (RHBs .433 wOBA with all eight HRs he's surrendered in 88 PAs). Nelson Cruz (137 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the top bat in the lineup and the hottest one as well (214 wRC+, 55.6 Hard% last seven days). His 94.3 mph aEV this season overall is sixth best among those with at least 100 BBEs.