| Date | Opp | DKSAL | FDSAL | DKFPTS | FDFPTS | sf | ab | slg | h | so | hbp | gidp | 1b | babip | 2b | pa | 3b | sb | hr | xbh | r | obp | rbi | iso | bb | ops | ibb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-06-30 | @ NYY | $2.1K | $2K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021-06-29 | @ NYY | $2K | $2K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021-06-28 | @ NYY | $2K | $2K | 5 | 6.2 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
| 2021-05-03 | vs. TB | $2.4K | $2K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021-05-01 | @ SEA | $2.6K | $2K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021-04-28 | @ TEX | $2.4K | $2K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021-04-26 | @ TEX | $2.8K | $2K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021-04-25 | @ HOU | $2.1K | $2K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021-04-24 | @ HOU | $2.2K | $2K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021-04-23 | @ HOU | $2K | $2K | 12 | 15.2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.67 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
| 2021-04-22 | @ HOU | $2K | $2K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021-04-21 | vs. TEX | $2K | $2K | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
| 2021-04-20 | vs. TEX | $2K | $2K | 7 | 9.2 | 0 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2021-04-19 | vs. TEX | $2K | $2K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-08-05 | vs. TOR | $2.8K | $2K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Scott Schebler Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Obvious Value in CIN Lineup
The Reds face Adam Wainwright tonight and have an implied total of 5.14 with plenty of value plays in their lineup. Wainwright has not been good since 2015, though he did have a decent start his last time out vs. the Padres on 4/7. Still, he has a track record of mediocrity since 2016 (4.76 ERA, 4.18 xFIP, .335 wOBA allowed since ’16) and we should continue to target him. Joey Votto (.418 xwOBA vs. RHP in 2018), Jesse Winker (.385), Yasiel Puig (.379), Eugenio Suarez (.358) and Scott Schebler (.338) make up the top 5 hitters in the Reds’ lineup and are all great, affordable options. Derek Dietrich (.310) and Tucker Barnhart (.305) are also in play but further down in the order. Barnhart has seen the ball well so far in 2019 with a .373 xwOBA, highest of all Reds’ bats in their lineup today. Puig (.262 xwOBA in 2019) has not had the same success to start the year, but as a result can be had at a discount.
Cold offense in negative run environment expected to prevail over rookie arm
Jeff Brigham has thrown fewer than 100 innings above A ball still with a 16.2 K-BB% in 52 AAA innings this season. He's walked five with four strikeouts in 7.1 major league innings. That's not enough information to make much of, but the Reds are implied for four and a half runs in an extremely negative run environment and their team 53 wRC+ over the last week. Exposure to some of their stronger bats in the top half of the order is certainly reasonable, but what's happened to Joey Votto's power this year (147 wRC+, .151 ISO vs RHP)? Scott Schebler (114 wRC+, .214 ISO) and Eugenio Suarez (121 wRC+, .229 ISO) may be useful bats here as well.
Rare park downgrade for struggling rookie
For those playing on FanDuel tonight, the Reds (with the 6:40 start) have the second highest implied run line among tonight's eight teams (4.73). Southpaw Eric Lauer has struggled against everyone in his rookie year (LH & RHBs both above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA), though he has kept same handed batters on the ground 50% of the time (15.4 points higher than RHBs). He suffers a significant park downgrade tonight in Cincinnati, especially if he's going to keep the ball in the air against RHBs. He's actually been pretty fortunate in his assignments with Arizona, Washington, and Colorado the only parks he's pitched in this season that wouldn't be considered extremely pitcher friendly and that first one is up in the air too since the humidor. The Reds have four batters in the lineup above a 120 wRC+ vs LHP this season and Joey Votto (93 wRC+, .090 ISO) is not one of them. Eugenio Suarez (194 wRC+, .322 ISO, 56.7 Hard%) is the big bat here. Scott Schebler (142 wRC+, .156 ISO) is the only additional Red above $3K on FanDuel tonight.
The Return of Scott Schebler
The return of Scott Schebler to the Reds lineup may complicate things a bit and move Billy Hamilton back down to the bottom of Cincinnati's order but if the speedster does leadoff on Sunday he’s arguably the top value play of the slate ($2,500 FD; $3,500 DK). Hamilton is unlikely to directly benefit from the wind + warm temps expected at Wrigley in terms of raw power but indirectly should see more at bats, more run producing opportunities, and more run scoring opportunities. If Hamilton leads off and Schebler hits top five, I do prefer Schebler as a point-per-dollar play on DraftKings where only $200 separates the two. If Hamilton hits ninth, he’s out of cash game discussion and should only be used in GPPs.
Potential value at the top of one lightly projected offense against a top pitcher tonight
The Reds have just a 3.43 implied run line against a tough pitcher in Carlos Carrasco, but this is just his second start back from the DL (5.1 IP - 3 ER vs A's in first) and he's really only been about league average against LHBs since last year (.312 wOBA, .316 xwOBA), while pitching in a park that favors left-handed offense and power. The Reds have some quality left-handed bats with some pop and potentially some value near the top of the lineup in Scott Schebler (106 wRC+, .238 ISO) for just $4K on DraftKings and Joey Votto (165 wRC+, .188 ISO), who's just too cheap at $4.4K on the same site.
Is it worth opposing tonight's high priced pitchers?
If you're someone not buying into tonight's high priced pitching, perhaps you're wondering if there's any value in opposing them. Considering Jose Berrios's recent struggles and around a two mile per hour drop in velocity over his first two starts, players may be wondering if all is not right. In that case, both Mike Moustakas and Lucas Duda exceed a 115 wRC+ and .240 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year, while nobody else in the Kansas City lineup is above 100 and/or .161. Also Whit Merrifield (100 wRC+, .120) has a 240 wRC+ over the last week and costs less than $4K. Gerrit Cole has an ERA and estimators all above four over the last month. Dustin Fowler (101 wRC+, .164 ISO) is an affordable leadoff bat. Matt Olson (149 wRC+, .328 ISO) is one of the top bats in baseball against RHP. Both are likely to be very low owned. A huge reason for Mike Clevinger's success this season is his improvement against LHBs (.286 wOBA), but that's predicated on just a 1.9 HR/FB despite a league average 32.6 Hard%. Since last season, LHBs still have a .346 xwOBA against him. The Reds have three LHBs who hit RHP extremely well: Joey Votto (165 wRC+, .181 ISO), Scooter Gennett (125 wRC+, .193 ISO) and Jesse Winker (143 wRC+, .173 ISO) along with an affordable leadoff bat in Scott Schebler (103 wRC+, .234 ISO). Clevleand is one of the most positive run environments in play tonight.
Recent assaults on Dylan Covey likely to continue in Cincinnati
Dylan Covey looked like a changed pitcher through his first six major league starts this year. His last three starts, however, looked even worse than last season (11.1 IP - 18 R - 6 HR - 12 BB - 3 K - 35 BF). As such, the Reds have the second highest run line on the board tonight (5.58). Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA between .370 and .385 against him in his career. Basically, any of the first six in the order are very nice options tonight and potentially part of a great stack if Covey is going to continue walking and everyone and then surrendering long balls. Tucker Barnhart (85 wRC+, .125 ISO) is the only one of the six below a 107 wRC+ or .173 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year and he's a cheap catcher batting in the second spot. Scott Schebler (107 wRC+, .250 ISO) and Joey Votto (166 wRC+, .189 ISO) are top overall bats in this spot.
James Shields has been going deep into most starts, but a SIERA above five could spell trouble in power boosting park
James Shields has gone at least six innings in 14 of 17 starts, probably more because the White Sox don’t care than due to performance that merits it. His ERA and FIP are still above four with other estimators above five. His .345 xwOBA is second worst on the board. The Reds have a 5.52 implied run line that's less than one-tenth of a run off the top of the board and Shields' workload may benefit them as most of the lineup should get to see him three times. While RHBs have a .311 wOBA against him since last year, xwOBA raises that to .344, meeting his marks against LHBs (.337 wOBA, .359 xwOBA) over that span. His .281 wOBA against LHBs this year is based on a .212 BABIP. The Reds will be looking to put the ball over the wall in Cincinnati. Shields has allowed 23 HRs to LHBs since the start of last season. With Tucker Barnhart (87 wRC+, .125 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) in the two spot, each of the first six bats for the Reds is a viable daily fantasy option, the remaining five all have at least a 99 wRC+ and .173 ISO against RHP over that same span. Remove Jesse Winker (140 wRC+, .173 ISO) and Joey Votto (169 wRC+, .196 ISO) has the next lowest ISO vs RHP over the last year. Leadoff man Scott Schebler (99 wRC+, .235 ISO) is one of the more interesting bats in the lineup, priced a bit less than the a few of the ones behind him.
The Forgotten Team Stack?
It feels like the Reds might get over-looked despite the short nature of this slate, and I love both sides of the Brewers/Reds contest this evening. It's getting hot in Cincinnati, and the park plays to offense in the summer months, for sure. The Reds have improved from their woeful start to the season, and this is a team that can score some runs. Junior Guerra is nothing special, with 39%+ hard contact allowed to hitters from each side of the plate, and the Reds are a great team to load up on in GPPs tonight.
Weather concerns for the only game being played without dome capabilities this afternoon
On a three game slate this afternoon, the only game outside of a dome has weather concerns in Atlanta. Kevin is skeptical about the viability of starting pitching in this game, which is a shame because in Luis Castillo, we have the highest SwStr% on the board (13.7%) for the entire day and Sean Newcomb offers a 23.9 K% with exceptional contact management (3.5% Barrels/BBE best for the entire day). Despite being separated by more than half a run (4.59 to 3.91), these are the two middle teams in terms of implied runs this afternoon. Newcomb has a reverse platoon split, holding RHBs below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA for his career, while LHBs have a .332 wOBA, .370 xwOBA and 32.8 Hard%, which are all much higher. On the small slate, assuming they play, that could make Joey Votto (122 wRC+, .144 ISO), Scooter Gennett (117 wRC+, .178 ISO) and Scott Schebler (98 wRC+, .136 ISO) slightly interesting as LHBs who have hit same-handed pitching reasonably well over the last calendar year. Luis Castillo has nearly the same numbers against RHBs (below a .330 wOBA and xwOBA), though LHBs have a .327 wOBA (.325 xwOBA) with a 38.2 Hard%. Freddie Freeman (137 wRC+, .213 ISO) is the top hitter in this lineup. While Ender Inciarte (101 wRC+, .127 ISO) and Nick Markakis (107 wRC+, .125 ISO) have been league average hitters against RHP, both do so with little power. Ozzie Albies is not in this lineup.