Sean Manaea Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Four of the top six projected FanDuel values are in the $8K range, but all are extremely high risk for one reason or another, but so is just about everyone else on a mostly meaningless slate. Let’s try to figure out if any of them are single site viable. The top projected value on either site (and $1.6K cheaper on DraftKings), Sean Manaea has somewhat pitched himself out of the post-season rotation and has been getting some long relief work recently. In fact, he’s gone beyond five innings in just one of his last eight outings (two in relief). The 23.0 K% (16.5 K-BB%) is fine. The 90.1 mph EV and 9.1% Barrels/BBE are not. That said, his 5.15 ERA is well above estimators ranging from a 3.94 ERA to a 4.65 FIP with 29 of his 41 barrels leaving the yard. Perhaps he deserves some regression there and in his 67.1 LOB%, but the Padres can’t afford to wait for it to come. He does enter a dangerous matchup with some upside and somethine to prove tonight (Giants 107 wRC+, 24.7 K%, 13.2 HR/FB vs LHP). Normally, we’d probably want to stick with the SP2 spot, but Manaea wouldn’t be the worst FanDuel option tonight, unless we find out something about his workload beforehand.

Considering Jeffrey Springs rarely hits the 90 pitch mark anyway, it’s hard to imagine him being pushed hard here, a few days ahead of their wild card series. On a per pitch basis, Springs has been extremely efficient in a breakout season, striking out 26.3% of batters with just a 5.6 BB%, allowing only 6.1% Barrels/BBE. With an 82.7 LOB%, his 2.45 ERA is quite a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.06 FIP to a 3.31 SIERA, which aren’t so bad either. He’s in a tough spot with some upside in Boston (110 wRC+, 24 K% vs LHP) and while the weather is going to be pitcher friendly, it’s also wet and cold. There should probably be even more workload concern than usual here, but again, that’s true of most pitchers today.

Cole Irvin has completed seven innings in two of his last five starts, but hasn’t completed five in any of the other three and has allowed at least three runs in eight of his last nine (6.97 ERA/5.30 FIP/4.62 xFIP). He’s also allowed 20 barrels (11.4%) over this span. With just a 17.2 K% on the season, all estimators exceed his 4.11 ERA. He has no strikeout upside, the opposing offense has plenty (Angels 88 wRC+, 23.9 K% vs LHP). Cole Irvin may actually be viable in this spot, especially with a decent shot at a Quality Start.

Opposing Irvin, Michael Lorenzen still has a single digit K-BB%, but striking out 21 of his last 61 batters has driven his season strikeout rate up over 20% (20.2%). With 51% of his contact on the ground though, estimators ranging from a 3.97 xERA to a 4.46 SIERA are a bit below a 4.52 ERA. Lorenzen has also recorded just two sixth inning outs over his last seven starts. However, he gets to face the A’s (83 wRC+, 24.1 K% vs RHP), which may make him usable on this slate by itself.

As far as your SP2 potentials on DraftKings, it’s basically the guys above, but just cheaper. All four are cost at least $8K on FanDuel, but less than $7.5K on DraftKings.

The quality pitching may be lacking on this board (or at least high upside pitching), but the top of the board still has the best matchups and with one quirky exception, the top priced pitchers are the top projected pitchers and values on either site. That quirky exception is the min-priced Drey Jameson currently projecting as the top DraftKings value in his major league debut. Despite already being 25, he is still a strongly regarded pitching prospect with 50 Future Value grade (Fangraphs). A January scouting report suggested a violent delivery could eventually land him in the bullpen, but he already had two above average pitches (fastball, slider) and two more that could be average (curveball, changeup), while his stock has only improved since then, though he has just a 13.2 K-BB% over 114 AAA innings this year and currently projects for an ERA above four. Do you really need a punt SP2 against the Padres (100 wRC+, 22.5 K% vs RHP) on this board though?

Should you still insist on paying less than $9K for pitching though, only available on FanDuel, Pablo Lopez’s troubles appear to be more than a bad run at this point. He’s allowed at least four runs in nine of his last 20 starts with the largest problem being 9.9% Barrels/BBE over that span that even his home park hasn’t been able to hide him from (16 home runs). More recently, he’s added some strikeout woes with an 18.6% mark over his last eight starts. A 4.08 xERA is his only estimator above a 4.04 ERA on the season, but everything except the strikeout rate is rising. More unfortunately, Lopez is a four-seam (38.4%) and changeup guy (35.1%) most of the time, two pitches the Phillies (103 wRC, 22.2 K% vs RHP) have pummeled since the break (0.45 wFB/C, 1.94 wCH/C). They’re also the hottest offense on the board with a team 148 wRC+, 15.9 K% and 21.3 HR/FB over the last week. None the less, on a weak board, in a great park, Lopez projects as the best FanDuel pitcher and value for less than $9K, which also projects him fourth overall in either category.

The next stop on our projected value tour, fifth best on either site, second best for less than $9K, is Sean Manaea, whom the Padres recently gave a couple of weeks off and even brought him out of the pen for four batters last week. A 66.0 LOB% is part of the reason his ERA now exceeds five, but he’s also allowed 15 home runs on 23 barrels (12.6%) over his last 11 starts with just a 20.3 K% over that span. Season estimators range from a 3.88 SIERA to a 4.54 FIP. The Diamondbacks do have an 87 wRC+ and 23.0 K% vs LHP, but five batters in tonight’s projected lineup exceed a 130 wRC+ vs LHP this year. You can see where this is all going. The top of the board may not shine, but it seems to get worse and worse the lower you go, but Manaea does cost just $7.6K on DraftKings.

It may even be worth forgoing strikeouts altogether and paying $7K for Dylan Bundy in a decent run and power prevention matchup. Bundy has struck out 11 of his last 124 batters. His double digit K-BB (11.5%) remains only because he doesn’t walk anyone (4.8%). A 4.02 xERA is his only estimator more than a quarter of a run removed from his 4.68 ERA. He’s recorded just two sixth inning outs over his last 13 starts. On a positive note, his four-seamer still grades well (-0.4 RV/100, 39.8%) and the Royals (87 wRC+, 22.3 K%, 8.4 HR/FB vs RHP) have struggled with fastballs (-0.45 wFB/C) since the break. They also have a team 33 wRC+, 25.5 K% and 2.3 HR/FB over the last week.

On a 12 game Friday night slate that includes two $10K pitchers on both sites and another that misses by a mere $100, Sean Manaea is the top projected arm on the board by PlateIQ. He struck out a season high 12 Braves in his last start, pushing his season rate up to 28.7% with the 13.4 SwStr% to justify it. He’s also produced a Quality Start six times in seven tries. With a 20.3 K-BB%, his 70.7 LOB% is low enough that all estimators are at least half a run below his 3.77 ERA. He’s been a great pickup for the Padres. Even with a potential weather boost for bats tonight, San Francisco should still play as a negative run environment, but it’s not an easy matchup by any stretch (Giants 108 wRC+, 22.3 K% vs LHP). It’ll be interesting to see where ownership projections end up on Manaea because he does seem to be the real deal and if enough players aren’t going to trust him in this spot against a good team at a price within $200 of $10K on either site, he may be a great play tonight. For more thoughts and analysis on tonight’s other three highly priced LHPs, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Max Scherzer is the most expensive pitcher on the board and the only one who costs more than $10K on both sites tonight. He struck out 10 of the 27 Astros he faced in his first start for the Dodgers and leads the slate with a 34.5 K%. In fact, he has the only strikeout rate above 30% today. If there’s been any decline, it’s not in how often opposing batters make contact, but the quality of that contact with 11.1% Barrels/BBE. Even still, a 3.16 xERA is less than half a run above his 2.75 ERA. A 3.54 FIP is the worst of his estimators. Only two of eight batters in the projected lineup for the Phillies exceed a 21.5 K% vs RHP this season, but Scherzer just showed that he can run up the strikeout count even against the toughest lineups in his Dodger debut. Additionally, though, he may be pitching under some tough conditions in a power friendly park. While there’s no reason to suggest Scherzer would be a bad play, he may not be the top value on this slate.

Sean Manaea costs exactly $10K on both sites. The Padres got to him for five runs, as he struck out just four in his second consecutive start against them, dominating San Diego in the first. Over his last six starts, Manaea has become a bit more home run prone (25 HR/FB, 12.2% Barrels/BBE) with a 4.19 ERA (3.81 FIP), but also carries a 28.2 K-BB% (14 SwStr%) and 2.61 xFIP over that span. On the season, Manaea’s ERA and estimators are tightly packed between a 3.24 FIP and 3.66 xERA. The projected Cleveland lineup includes three batters above a 27 K% vs LHP this year, but nobody else above 19%, while some hitter friendly weather enforces the positive run environment Manaea will have to deal with tonight. However, there are just four batters in the projected lineup above a .122 ISO vs LHP this year and just one above a .183 ISO, so it’s still a fine run prevention spot and Manaea has thrown a quality start in 12 of 22 tries this season.

Aaron Nola is $10.5K on DraftKings, but misses $10K by just $100 on FanDuel. A .310 BABIP with just a 70.4 LOB% are responsible for a 4.49 ERA that’s well above any of his estimators, a 3.63 xERA being the closest. He has a very healthy 23.4 K-BB%, though just 40.7% of his contact on the ground. Nola faces the same conditional issues that Scherzer does here, but an even tougher lineup. Just one batter in the projected order for the Dodgers exceeds a 20 K% vs RHP this year.

Lastly, Sonny Gray is $10.3K on DraftKings and $1.1K less on FanDuel. He has allowed at least four runs in three of his last four starts, shutting down only the slumping Mets over this span, but this has been the product of a .415 BABIP, 55.2 LOB% and 20 HR/FB, as he also has a 16.9 K-BB% and 5.4% Barrels/BBE, resulting in a 3.73 xFIP during this stretch, His 4.44 ERA this season is at least three-quarters of a run above all of his estimators now. He makes it four for four considering top priced pitchers in positive run environments. The projected Atlanta lineup has just three batters below a 23 K% vs RHP this year though. Considering Gray has only hit the six inning mark in five of 16 starts this season, he may be a tad over-valued here. This may not be a slate where it’s absolutely necessary to pay top dollar for your pitching needs.

The top matchups on the board not belonging to the highest priced arms tonight find Randy Dobnak (at Orioles 80 wRC+, 25.1 K% vs RHP), Jordan Montgomery (vs Rays 94 wRC+, 30.7 K% vs LHP), Jordan Lyles (at Rockies 64 wRC+, 24 K%, 10.4 HR/FB vs RHP), Antonio Senzatela (vs Rangers 91 wRC+, 26.9 K% vs RHP) and Sean Manaea (at Mariners 87 wRC+, 27.8 K% vs LHP). Let’s immediately thrown out the two ground ball, contact prone pitchers in bad parks (Dobnak & Senzatela). Each has a sub-17 K% and exit velocity averaging above 90 mph.

It’s hard to understand why Montgomery isn’t better than he is. Perhaps the division is part of it, but an above average strikeout rate (24.7%, 12.7 SwStr%) and just a 6% walk rate with a league average exit velocity and Barrels/BBE suggest a pretty good pitcher. In fact, only his DRA is above four. Yet his ERA is 4.22 because he’s only stranded 70.3% of runners. He’s much more interesting on FanDuel ($7.5K) than DraftKings ($9.3K) with 40% of his starts being of the “Quality” variety. Something many people probably don’t know is that BaseballSavant Park Factors consider Yankee Stadium a negative run environment. Lyles is up to a 24.6 K% (11.5 SwStr%) over his last five starts with a passable 4.18 ERA and estimators even lower over that span. One thing he hasn’t been able to improve upon is the 91.5 mph EV. His 5.24 xERA and 5.30 DRA are his only estimators above five for the season, but still aren’t nearly as high as his actual ERA (5.79). A .331 BABIP is 34 points above what his team defense allows, but don’t expect that to improve much at Coors. He’s $6.2K or less on either site, but probably serves better as a GPP SP2 on DraftKings because he may be the pitcher most likely to go boom or bust on this list.

Manaea is the highest priced pitcher on this list (at least $8.5K on either site), but by virtue of being a league average pitcher in this spot (24.2 K%, 12.1 SwStr%, 5.5 BB%, 90.4 mph EV, 38.9 GB%, 3.71 SIERA, 4.06 xERA) with a solid workload (at least six innings in six of 11 starts), he makes an argument for being considered the top arm on the board, along with Walker Buehler, and perhaps a better value. One additional high upside arm to mention, who is in a better spot than many might perceive, is Shane McClanahan. Remember what was said above about Yankee Stadium and the home team has just a 94 wRC+ vs LHP with a league average strikeout rate (23.7%). A 17.7 SwStr% with a 6.5 BB% is pretty special. When contact has been made, it’s been a little too hard (91.5 mph), but has still only resulted in just 5.8% Barrels/BBE, despite a near average ground ball rate. His 3.09 xERA fits in snuggly with his 3.29 ERA and additional estimators. And that’s with a 29.6 K% that has the potential to be even higher. The problem is that he’s a twice through the order then out kind of guy. That may still play for less than $8K, especially on DraftKings.

High upside spots not belonging to high cost pitchers feature Chris Flexen (at Rangers), Mike Foltynewicz (vs Mariners), Matt Shoemaker (vs Tigers), Tarik Skubal (at Twins) and Sean Manaea (vs Rays). Addressing the elephant in the room immediately, the projected Minnesota lineup includes five batters exceeding a 25 K% vs LHP since 2019 and three above 34%. However it also includes five batters above a .200 ISO and Skubal is an extreme fly ball pitcher you probably want no part of tonight, while the same can be said of his opponent. Shoemaker has failed to strike out a single batter in two of his last three starts.

The other direct matchup we have here is Chris Flexen facing Mike Foltynewicz. Flexen failed to strike out any of the 17 Angels he faced last time out, after striking out seven of 25 Red Sox. He’s at 18.4% on the year with an 8.2 SwStr%. He’s walked just six, but been lucky that only two of his seven Barrels (8.1%) have left the yard. Non-FIP estimators sit a bit above four with a 6.5 HR/FB seeming unsustainable, though the .333 BABIP is a bit high too. He’s still somewhat reasonable facing a projected lineup with four batters exceeding a 27 K% vs RHP since 2019. Meanwhile, a 16.5 K-BB% is the second highest of Mike Foltynewicz’s career, but a 91.3 mph EV is more than two mph above his previous high. He’s already allowed 12 Barrels (12.1%), nine of which have left the yard. A 4.32 ERA is a bit above some estimators (SIERA, xFIP), but well below others (FIP, DRA), due to an 89.2 LOB% and 21.4 HR/FB. Again here, the upside may be worth the risk as a secondary arm on DraftKings for less than $7K, when facing a projected Seattle lineup that includes four batters above a 30K% vs RHP since 2019.

Manaea isn’t exactly cheap, exceeding $9K on DraftKIngs, but costs just $8K on FanDuel. He has ridden a velocity increase to a league average 23.7 K% and 12 SwStr%, which represents an improvement for him. Without much of a change in pitch usage, his ground ball rate has dropped below 40% for the first time, but that’s not much of a concern in Oakland. He’s allowed four long balls this year on seven Barrels (7.1%). Every estimator except a 4.87 DRA is below four. As they proved last night, the Rays could put double digit strikeouts on the board offensively, but still generate runs. Six of nine projected starters for the Rays tonight exceed a 25 K% vs LHP since 2019. Manaea is a reasonable alternative on DraftKings, but also potentially a top value on FanDuel at his current cost.

In general, the highest priced pitchers on the board are in some of the highest upside spots and generally your best bets tonight, but if looking to gain leverage with ownership or a desire for more offenses in your lineups drives you down into a lower price range, there are still a few reasonable options out there.

Anthony DeSclafani and Sean Manaea are in two of the higher upside spots on the board as well. DeSclafani is striking out batters at nearly a league average rate and walking a few less, producing a 16.9 K-BB% that’s just below his career high 17% back in 2019. More sinkers and curveballs have generated a career high 57.4 GB%, 14.5 points above his career rate. The Rockies have a 51 wRC+ on the road and 75 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Four of eight in the projected lineup are above a 26 K% vs RHP since 2019. Manaea has struck out 14 of his last 51 and allowed just three runs over his last 19 innings. Half of his six Barrels were allowed in his first start. His swinging strike rate has exceeded 15% in each of his last two starts as he’s traded out sliders for more changeups (28.8%) against Detroit and Minnesota. The Rays have a good offense vs LHP (106 wRC+ this year), but it’s a negative run environment and just two of the projected nine are below a 23 K% vs LHP since 2019. DeSclafani costs just $6.8K on FanDuel, while Manaea is within $200 of $8K on either site.

Outside of those two, Charlie Morton has peripherals a bit better than results (3.91 ERA). His strikeout rate is back up to 28.7% through four starts and he even experienced a velocity spike against the Yankees last time out. His ground ball rate is back up to 49.1% again this year after a career low 41.6% last year. It truly seems like nagging injuries were his undoing last year, especially considering his improved post-season performance, which has carried over to this year. Additionally, five of eight projected starters for the Cubs are above a 24 K% vs RHP since 2019. The bad news is that Atlanta may be the most positive run environment on the board tonight and the Cubs have a team 121 wRC+ over the last week. Morton is $8.6K or less on either site. Lastly, if you’re looking at Shohei Ohtani in Texas tonight, yes, there are likely some strikeouts in that lineup for him (four of the projected nine above 25% vs RHP since 2019) and yes, he costs just $7.7K, but workload limitations may be an issue yet again and he’s run up his pitch counts pretty quickly with 11 walks in two starts. He’s likely not a great option on FanDuel for more than $9K, where the Quality Start is of more importance.

Sean Manaea has sustained the one plus mph velocity drop he experienced after returning last year and with an even lower swinging strike rate through two starts (8.1%), he’s allowed seven earned runs through nine innings despite not issuing a single walk and allowing just one HR. Estimators will correctly point out a 20.8 LOB% and .262 xwOBA some 55 points better than actual results. Add in the matchup and price and Manaea may be a mid-range pitcher daily fantasy players are forced to look at tonight. The Texas offense has just a 71 wRC+ this year and really struggled against LHP last year (85 wRC+). The linup will most likely contain some strikeouts in the middle. Manaea has been a little worst vs RHBs since returning last year, but still held all batters below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA. The $6.8K price point on FanDuel makes Manaea a pitcher who probably should be considered for those looking to stack Coors tonight.