Seth Lugo Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

While Justin Verlander is the clear top play on the board, there are some interesting options on the lower half of the board, mostly to pair with him on DraftKings, but as a stand alone, Jameson Taillon could make some sense as a pivot. He's not going to blow the rest of the board away, but there's significant evidence that he's under-priced below $8K. He offers an above average strikeout rate (22.5%), 51.1 GB% and the second best xwOBA on the board .283, supported by the lowest rate of barrels per batted ball (4.5%). Citi Field is a park upgrade, where the Mets have just an 82 wRC+, 23.7 K% and 8.8 HR/FB this year. He looks even better if Brandon Nimmo (left after being HBP Sunday) is out of the lineup tonight. Seth Lugo may be playable for $7.1K on DraftKings, but may be even more interesting for just $5.9K on FanDuel. He was unable to utilize his curveball effectively at Coors last time out, but returns home to face a Pittsburgh team with a 28 wRC+, 19.4 K-BB% and 2.8 HR/FB over the last week. Additional compliments to Verlander on DraftKings could include Vince Velasquez ($6.6K), who faces the Yankees in a very power friendly park for RHBs, but they lose Sanchez and the DH tonight. He's completed six innings in eight of 15 starts and only four pitchers better his .295 xwOBA. Every pitcher in his strikeout rate (28.5%) costs at least 50% more. John Gant costs $5K and gets Cleveland in negative run environment without a DH. His aEV (89.4 mph) is a concern, but he has a 21.2 K% in 94 career innings (12 starts). Dan Straily has some terrifying Statcast numbers (.439 xwOBA, 12.4% Barrels/BBE) and sometimes struggles to get through even five innings, but offers a 21.7 K% over the last 30 days in one of the most power suppressing parks in the league (not that it's helped him this year) for the minimum cost against an improving Arizona offense, but still one with just an 81 wRC+ and 24.9 K% against RHP this year.

There are several pitchers in the $8-$9K range or even lower, who may be preferable to higher priced arms tonight. Ross Stripling just misses the $10K club. has not allowed more than two runs in a start since making his last relief appearance to start May. He’s gone at least 6.2 innings in three of his last four starts and even if nobody believes he'll sustain a 30+ K%, he's been one of the top contact managers on the board with a .230 xwOBA well below any other pitcher with more than two starts and a 2.9% Barrels/BBE that's best too. The Giants just lost another middle of the order bat, Dodger Stadium is the most negative run environment on the board, and San Francisco has a 17.4 K-BB% vs RHP. Seth Lugo starts his third game for the Mets. He struck out eight Yankees in six shutout innings in his most recent. The strikeout rate probably has upside to around 25% in a starting role and he has a five pitch arsenal that should play as a starter, even if the curveball is well ahead of anything else. His 84..6 mph aEV is second best on the board and while the Diamondbacks have been red hot, they still have 24.9 K% and 80 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Lugo costs just $6.4K on FanDuel. Brandon McCarthy has been better, not great, since upping his cutter usage. The most important thing is that he has the top matchup on the board against the Padres (82 wRC+, 25.6 K vs RHP) for a cost around $6K. Kevin Gausman has a 13 SwStr% that's second best on the board (15.5% over the last 30 days is best) and a matchup with the Marlins. Jose Urena has a strikeout rate and ERA estimators around league average with a 50.8 GB%, but still costs less than $7K in Baltimore (80 wRC+, 17.8 K-BB%). Rick Porcello has at least pitched into the sixth inning in all but one start this year and is one of just six pitchers with more than two starts below a .300 xwOBA tonight. He's a quality arm at a reasonable price in a somewhat neutral spot in Seattle. Zack Godley hasn't been good, but still has a league average strikeout rate with a 50% GB rate and faces the Mets (31 wRC+, 32.1 K% last seven days). Jon Lester is flying well under his estimators, but has gone seven innings in three of four starts and has increased his strikeout rate to 24.2% over the last month. The Cardinals have right-handed power, but less at home and a 23 K% vs LHP in a negative run environment. Tyler Skaggs allows some loud contact (89.8 mph aEV) against an offense that hits the ball hard (27.2 Hard-Soft% vs LHP), but has strikeout upside against an offense with a 23.9 K% and 89 wRC+ against LHP.

There's not much we know for sure about how the Mets will attack the Cubs tonight, but we know Seth Lugo will start and we know Seth Lugo loves to throw his curveball (32.9% overall). It's his most frequently thrown pitch against batters from either side of the plate and for good reason (.187 xwOBA). PlateIQ tells us that among those with more than 20 attempts against the pitch since 2016, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber have had the most success against the pitch (.330+ wOBA), though the latter can't be expected to face him more than once. His second most frequently thrown pitch is a sinker with a .493 xwOBA against, against which both Bryant and Rizzo exceed a .400 wOBA against since 2016. The bottom line is that the top hitters in the Chicago lineup both hit pitchers from either side well and should be in advantageous positions all night. They are more equipped than any other batters to succeed in this spot and are probably worth paying up for without much high priced pitching on this board.

There are several areas of interest concerning bullpens tonight. Seth Lugo makes his first start of the season for the Mets. He has a few three inning stints, but no more than 48 pitches in any outing this year and has thrown 30-32 twice in the last six days. The Mets pen is in shambles and in flux over the last few days with new comings and goings from the minors every day. Clayton Kershaw is fresh off a month on the DL without a minor league rehab start. The Dodger pen has a 2.45 FIP and 19.5 K-BB% that are top six in baseball over the last 14 days. Drew Pomeranz (in Houston), Wei-Yin Chen (in San Diego) and Sonny Gray (vs Baltimore) are the three starters averaging fewer than five innings this season. The Boston pen (3.26 FIP, 17.5 K-BB%) is one of the best in baseball, but the damage may already be done by that point and it could be the lower end the Astros are facing. The Yankee pen (3.15 FIP, 22.5 K-BB%) is probably the best in baseball, though Baltimore bats are unlikely to be high on anyone's radar anyway. The Miami bullpen has a 4.49 FIP and 10.5 K-BB% this season and a 5.82 FIP with a -2.8 K-BB% over the last 14 days. This may be a rare occasion worth targeting San Diego bats, some who are proficient against LHP.

It's a pitching deficient eight game slate on Thursday night with 10 of 16 teams currently implied between 4.8 and 5.8 runs with nobody below 3.66 at this moment. The Chicago Cubs have thrashed the Mets each of the last two nights and are the top projected offense on the board, a bit more than a quarter of a run ahead of the Yankees. Seth Lugo is certainly not the worst pitcher on the board, but his strikeout increase over the last month (24.6%) is not supported by an 8.3 SwStr% that is roughly equivalent to his season rate (8.5%). He generally struggles to go deep into games and the Met bullpen has been a mess. Lugo has almost no split with a wOBA between .325 and .327 to batters from either side with a 35% hard hit rate, though he gains five points on his ground ball rate against RHBs (45%). Among projected starters, only Jason Heyward and Javier Baez are below average hitters against RHP. The top six, as well as Alex Avila (138 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP), are all reasonably strong plays. Kris Bryant (139 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP) and Anthony Rizzo (135 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP) are the obvious top plays. The Yankees face Wade Miley, which may sound a bit better than it actually is. While RHBs do have a .366 wOBA against him this year, they have just a league average 31.4 Hard% and a 49.7 GB%. Over his last six starts though, he has a 21.2 K% and 54.2 GB% with a 4.1 Hard-Soft%. While his ERA is just 3.18 over this span, his estimators are a run higher due to a 12.3 BB%, while he’s failed to reach six innings in half of those starts. RHBs (125 BF) have a .331 wOBA, three HRs, an 8 K-BB%, 52.9 GB% and 21.2 Hard% over this span. The Yankees have a 17.7 HR/FB at home, but just a 96 wRC+ against LHP with a hard hit rate of 29.4% vs LHP and at home. That said, there are a few Yankees who have mashed LHP this year: Aaron Judge (144 wRC+, .273 ISO, 46.9 Hard%), Gary Sanchez (127 wRC+, .264 ISO, 37.5 Hard%), Matt Holliday (139 wRC+, .231 ISO, 41.5 Hard%) and Todd Frazier (115 wRC+, .295 ISO, 35.9 Hard%). Of that group, only Holliday (37.7%) has a fly ball rate below 42%.

Seth Lugo has a .235 BABIP, 84.6 LOB% and 7.4 HR/FB which has led to a estimators two runs above his 2.35 ERA. He has just an 8.8 K-BB% since moving to the rotation with a 40.2 Hard%. He may be a disaster in waiting. Unfortunately, the Phillies don't have the type of offense that can take advantage and are projected for just 3.5 runs tonight, despite all the warning signs in Lugo's profile. Odubel Herrera (125 wRC+, .169 ISO) has been by far the top hitter against RHP in this lineup, but carries a very expensive price tag. Ryan Howard (87 wRC+, .263 ISO) is still showing quite a bit of power when he does make contact. He may be the most viable choice in this lineup for $3.5K on DK and $1K less on FD.

The theme of the weekend is pitchers who do not strike out many batters but give up an above average amount of hard contact. The Mets and Braves game will continue that theme, considering Seth Lugo, the Mets starter, has a hard contact percentage of 43% over the last two weeks, paired with a strikeout rate of 23%. This k-rate is actually fairly respectable, so it probably will not be a good idea to stack the Braves. Still, using a batter who holds a 156 wRC+ versus RHP like Freddie Freeman is not a bad strategy. However, Freeman will strikeout with the best of them, whiffing in 23% of at-bats versus RHP. Look to Freeman as a high-risk/high-reward option at the always crucial first base position.

Seth Lugo left after five innings in St Louis due to a leg cramp, but did not allow a run and has not embarrassed himself in two starts against quality offenses in St Louis and San Francisco despite a hard hit rate above 40% each time. He hasn't allowed a major league HR in 28.2 major league innings and while that won't last, it could continue tonight. The Marlins have shuffled the order with Ozuna (86 wRC+, .141 ISO vs RHP since 2015) batting second tonight and Yelich (136 wRC+, 174 ISO vs RHP since 2015) dropped to cleanup, but that doesn't make the remaining batters any better when you still have Ichiro Suzuki (64 RC+, .047 ISO vs RHP since 2015) batting sixth in 2016. The Marlins have not hit a HR in over a week (20.7 Hard%). Seth Lugo may not even be a back end starter long term on a decent team, but he only has to cover $4.1K on DraftKings against a terrible lineup tonight. The one look in this lineup might be Xavier Scruggs, the one hot bat in the lineup (183 wRC+ last seven days) for the absolute minimum on FanDuel and batting fifth.

Seth Lugo draws his second start for the Mets tonight, but frankly, he should not be on our radar for any format. He has over 21 appearances (14 starts) at the AAA level this year, and accumulated a 6.50 ERA and a 4.68 FIP to go along with a mediocre 18.2% strikeout rate. Over his first 23 2/3 major league innings, he has a 4.07 SIERA and is allowing hard contact 37.3% of the time. Lugo is in a tough spot drawing a matchup with the team that ranks 3rd in all of baseball in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Feel free to target some St. Louis hitters here, though none of them come at any sort on DraftKings (I know, surprising). The top of the order, Matt Carpenter (158 wRC+, .410 wOBA, .289 ISO vs RHP), Brandon Moss (156 wRC+, .406 wOBA, .368 ISO vs RHP), and Jedd Gyorko (138 wRC+, .379 wOBA, .349 ISO vs RHP), is where we want to focus our exposure to the Cardinals offense but a full stack in tournaments is certainly in play.