Shelby Miller Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Shelby Miller has been awful by virtually every single metric this season (5.0 SwStr%, 90.1 Z-Contact%, 44.3 Z-O-Swing%, 7.63 ERA, 7.51 SIERA, 90 mph aEV, .426 xwOBA) and while he does get a significant park bump outside of Texas tonight, the Mariners have shown they have no problems putting runs on the board at home, scoring in the double digits last night. The Mariners are right at five implied runs currently and that total is good for third best on the board. Further, there is an extremely hitter friendly umpire assigned to this game. Batters from either side of the plate are above both a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Miller since his return from surgery last year (eight starts). It’s not a large sample size, but large enough for players to confidently fire away on some Seattle bats. Dan Vogelbach (191 wRC+, .368 ISO, 52.2 Hard% vs RHP last calendar year) has been murdering baseballs this season and should be worth his increasing price tag. Omar Narvaez (140 wRC+, .185 ISO) is similarly increasing in cost and generally bats lower in the lineup, but should still have some appeal at a terrible position. Domingo Santana (138 wRC+, .221 ISO), Edwin Encarnacion (124 wRC+, .238 ISO), Mitch Haniger (125 wRC+, .217 ISO) and Jay Bruce (96 wRC+, .183 ISO, but 270 wRC+, 57.1 Hard% last seven days) should round out the top half of a strong lineup tonight.

The Colorado Rockies top the board at 5.98 implied runs tonight. Shelby Miller has allowed at least five runs (not all earned) in each of his three starts since returning from Tommy John surgery. He has a .400 xwOBA, 90.9 mph aEV, 15.9% Barrels/BBE and 54.5% 95+ mph EV. It's been a thrashing and since last season (including his pre-TJ 2017 work), LHBs have a .359 wOBA (.377 xwOBA) with a 40.6 Hard% against him. Charlie Blackmon (140 wRC+, .290 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Carlos Gonzalez (130 wRC+, .217 ISO) are the two top OFers on the board. Both have hit Miller well in the past as well (Blackmon three extra-base hits in 25 PAs, Gonzalez four extra-base hits in 21 PAs). Cargo might even be considered a salary saver, his cost well below most potent Coors bats tonight.

Justin Verlander is the best pitcher on the board by far. Aside from Johnny Cueto, fresh off a two plus month stay on the disabled list, he's at least $4.5K more expensive than any other pitcher on FanDuel and over $5K more than anyone else on DraftKings. No pitcher on the slate with more than five starts this season is within 10 points of his 31.2 K%, half a run of his 3.02 SIERA or 50 points of his .247 xwOBA. Find a way to pay up for Verlander at home in the most negative run environment in baseball against the White Sox (18.4 K-BB% vs RHP). There are otherwise still some interesting arms on the board at their current prices. Marco Gonzales is second behind Verlander with a 21.2 K% and 3.68 SIERA. He's failed to complete six innings in just two of his last 13 starts and once by a single out. The Angels have just a 10.5 K-BB% vs LHP with a predominantly right-handed lineup, but also just a 93 wRC+ and 12.1 HR/FB against them. Gonzales costs $7.3K on either site in a great park in Seattle. Max Fried struck out 11 of 25 Cardinals in his second start of the season and had a 14.6 K-BB% in nine AAA starts this season. He's a decently regarded prospect with a 50 Future Value grade (Fangraphs). He costs just $5.9K on FanDuel against a Milwaukee team with an 81 wRC+ vs LHP, though that seems strange considering their 10.8 K-BB% and 14.8 HR/FB against them. The Brewers do have a team 26.4 K% over the last week. Luke Weaver has allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts and has an ERA above five on the season now. However, he has a league average strikeout rate (20.9% - third best) and the second lowest aEV on the board (86.5 mph) among those with more than five starts and a great park in San Francisco tonight against an offense with a 16.0 K-BB% vs RHP this year. It's not a comfortable fit, but it's a reasonable one for a price less than $8K, though don't expect the six innings necessary for a quality start on FanDuel (just four times this year). Jeremy Hellickson wasn't very good in his return from a month on the DL and rarely goes through the order a third time, but he has a 20.3 K%, 3.79 SIERA and .325 xwOBA all very much in line with those fighting for second behind Verlander and costs $7.7K or less against the Marlins (sub-90 wRC+ and 16+ K-BB% on the road and vs RHP). Shelby Miller has allowed 11 runs (three HRs) in 8.2 innings since returning from TJ surgery. However, he's also struck out 11 of 44 batters (though with just a 7.2 SwStr%) and costs less than $7K against the Padres (70 wRC+, 20 K-BB% on the road, 82 wRC+, 25.8 K% vs RHP).

Max Scherzer is going to be the chalk tonight with upwards of 35-40% ownership potentially, though it's not Yu Darvish, but Luis Severino projecting to be the second most popular pitcher according to the Projected Ownership page (premium subscription required). If looking for a less popular arm with some upside, Shelby Miller has been missing bats at a league average rate and projects for 5% ownership or less on either site in San Diego. Baltimore bats are easily expected to be the most popular on either site tonight. With such and wide open slate, perhaps this is the night to take advantage of some MVP caliber bats, who may not be as popular as they usually are in decent spots. Bryce Harper and Mike Trout are both projected to be in only around 10% of lineups. Premium subscribers can use the Projected Ownership page to find potentially low owned pivots to many of the most popular players every night.

Carlos Santana to RF has several implications in an NL park. First, it allows both he and Edwin Encarnacion to remain in the lineup, making Shelby Miller's job a bit tougher. Secondly, Josh Tomlin is a fly ball pitcher in a tough park in Arizona. This may make his job tougher as well, so downgrade both pitchers, upgrade both offenses a bit here. The last thing to think about is that perhaps either Santana or Encarnacion are removed for defense after three PAs.