Sonny Gray Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Cubs vs. Cardinals will be delayed due to rain Sunday.

Sonny Gray was shelled for six runs by the Cardinals last time out as he walked three and struck out just one of the 10 batters he faced. The 11.2 SwStr% still does not fully support a 31.6 K% and we’ve seen that strikeout rate drop to a more reasonable 25.6% over the last 30 days. But now his walk rate is up to 10.2% as well, while the 44.5 GB% is the first time he’s ever had a rate below 50%. That’s fine if he’s sacrificing ground balls for strikeouts, but he didn’t have to do so last year. A 3.95 xERA that accounts for his 86.9 mph EV and 4.0% Barrels/BBE is still his worst estimator, so it’s not as if he’s not pitching well, but his 2.87 ERA last year came with a .255 BABIP and 79.7 LOB%, so perhaps a bit of regression should not be unexpected. Gray will also be working with a new catcher tonight and face a Cubs’ offense with a 102 wRC+ and 20.5 HR/FB vs RHP. All of that being said, it’s another pitcher friendly night at Wrigley, which should suppress some of that power, while the Cubs also have strikeout tendencies against RHP (26.3%). With Gerrit Cole having weather concerns tonight (and some hard contact issues of his own), Gray may be the top pitcher on the board tonight with a price tag of $10.1K on FanDuel.

Sonny Gray has an 11.5 SwStr% that does not really justify his 34.9 K% this season, but he’s still done quality work, even if his strikeout rate drops five or so points. His 3.19 SIERA and 3.63 xERA are his only estimators above three. Considering the matchup, he may be the top pitcher on the slate. The Brewers may not necessarily be the lineup his strikeout rate regresses against as they own a 27.6% rate against RHP with a 67 wRC+. Keston Huira and Christian Yelich are the only batters in the lineup above even a 90 wRC+ overall this year. A $10.2K price tag makes Gray the third most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, but potentially the top value and perhaps even the top overall arm in this inviting matchup.

Sonny Gray is the unquestioned top pitcher on the board in the most pitcher friendly park (though most environments lean negative tonight), which makes the biggest questions ones of cost and ownership. It’s not just that Gray tops the board with a 29.2 K%, it’s that the only other pitcher that’s within six points (Pablo Lopez (23.3%) hasn’t pitched in a major league game in quite a while. His 2.92 ERA may be a run below his 3.90 SIERA, but no other pitcher on the board is below a four SIERA. His 3.09 DRA is also best on the board and only one of three below four. He also tops the board with a 52.4 GB% and .282 xwOBA. Not only is the park extremely favorable, but the Marlins have a 76 wRC+ and 18.4 K-BB% vs RHP this year. Their 11 HR/FB against righties is the worst split on the board. As for cost, Gray costs more than $11K, when only one other pitcher costs more than $9.1K on either site. It may be worth bypassing him on FanDuel in favor of potentially more volatile arms, at least on GPPs. On DraftKings, an $11.2K price tag may not make him such a great value, but the ability to pair him with someone like Joe Musgrove for $6K makes him a lot easier to fit into lineups. It’s also likely to place him in near half of tonight’s lineups (Projected Ownership is available to premium subscribers).