Starlin Castro Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Marlins lineup is hardly ever a place to find bats, but on a slate tonight with many viable high priced-arms, they have some decent low-priced options that make sense. The Marlins will get a matchup tonight with Steven Brault, who has had a rough year with a 5.05 ERA, 5.63 xFIP and 5.44 SIERA with just a 5.4% K-BB, 44% hard contact and an 8.8% SwStr. Brault also has a .362 xwOBA allowed and an 89.8 MPH aEV. The Pirates’ bullpen has also been atrocious over the last 30 days with a 6.27 ERA and 5.21 xFIP with a 2.04 HR/9, further enhancing the matchup for Miami bats. Garrett Cooper (.427 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Jorge Alfaro (.425), Starlin Castro (.354), Brian Anderson (.336) have all hit lefties well this year and are in the Miami lineup tonight. Austin Dean (.268) hasn’t had as much success on the year but will leadoff for the Marlins at just $3.4k on Draftkings. Harold Ramirez is another option, batting 5th at $3.8k with a 106 wRC+ on the year. Garrett Cooper has been the Marlins’ hottest hitter with a .439 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Miguel Rojas at a .398 mark. With the exception of Cooper, all Marlins bats are $4k or less on Draftkings. They currently have a 4.37 implied line vs. Brault and the Pirates.

Without even considering anything else, Sean Newcomb may be one of tonight's top value only by considering cost (< $8K), venue (Miami) and opponent (Marlins 81 wRC+, 8.4 HR/FB vs LHP). One thing to realize is that the Marlins don't strike out a ton (21.3% vs LHP), while Newcomb has just a league average strikeout rate as well (21.7%). He's also allowed 12 runs over 9.1 innings to the Rockies and Brewers (both in Atlanta) over his last two starts, but he does top the board with an 86.8 mph aEV and the only pitcher allowing fewer Barrels/BBE than his 4.2% has started just two games. Contact management in a great park is likely where his value comes from tonight if he maintains the expected league average strikeout rate. There's a little more risk in that, but RHBs have just a .299 wOBA against him this season and the Marlins attack him with six of those, just two above average against southpaws over the last calendar year: Starlin Castro (126 wRC+, .142 ISO) and Brian Anderson (108 wRC+, .142 ISO).

While the immediate lean is towards pitching against the Marlins, especially in the negative run environment in Miami, Andrew Suarez may not be a poor choice at a reasonably low price, but realize he has just a 7.0 SwStr% and RHBs have a .372 wOBA (.376 xwOBA) and 44.6 Hard% against him this year. Starlin Castro and Brian Anderson provide some value at the top of this lineup, both have a 123 wRC+ and are above a .350 xwOBA with an ISO within 10 points of .150 against LHP over the last calendar year. Anderson has a team leading 223 wRC+ over the last week as well. Castro (36.4 Hard%) is the only batter among the first six below a 45 Hard% over the last week as a matter of fact.

Players are likely paying up for pitching tonight and that means they'll have to save money somewhere. The Marlins have just a 3.97 implied run line in a difficult hitting environment, but they're facing a pitcher who has been torn up by RHBs this year (.421 wOBA, .382 xwOBA, 45.5 Hard%). In addition, the San Diego bullpen has been struggling behind Eric Lauer (4.53 FIP, last 14 days). Starlin Castro (134 wRC+, .152 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Brian Anderson (102 wRC+, .389 xwOBA) are not incredibly cheap at the top of the lineup, but both are $3.6K or less on either site and both have been hitting the ball well (>140 wRC+ and 40 Hard% last seven days). J.T. Realmuto (89 wRC+, .326 xwOBA, .164 ISO) is a more expensive catcher and has not had much success against LHP, but does hit RHP well should Lauer exit early.

Eric Lauer completed six innings for just the second time this season last time out (6 IP – 6 H – 1 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 7 K – 25 BF in Washington). The numbers are all still below average, but the miniscule price tag nearly puts him into consideration against the Marlins, who, despite what happened with Scherzer on Friday night, are still one of the worst run producing offenses in the majors. They have been slightly competent against LHP however (11.3 K-BB%). Two inexpensive bats in particular could be of use here against a pitcher who has allowed a .411 wOBA (.369 xwOBA) and 43.8 Hard% (31.4 GB%) against right-handed batters so far. Neither offers much power, but Brian Anderson (117 wRC+) has a .413 xwOBA and 49.1 Hard% against southpaws in his career. Miguel Rojas leads off (110 wRC+, .161 ISO vs LHP last calendar year). Starlin Castro (115 wRC+, .109 ISO) may be an option, but probably is not a top second base play on this board.

Jose Quintana has not allowed an earned run in two starts, but did have three unearned in his last starts with both four walks and strikeouts. His 19.9 K% has dropped done to the support level of his 8.2 SwStr% this season, while his ability to manage contact has left him (90.7 mph aEV), driving his ERA to 4.99 and his xwOBA to .365. While Brian Anderson and Starlin Castro both have a wRC+ above 125 against southpaws over the last calendar year, neither has an ISO above .150. Unfortunately, Quintana costs $9.7K on DraftKings this afternoon in a great spot, but one where expectations may be a bit lofty. On the other side, the Cubs have board high 6.66 implied run line with the wind blowing out to left. Wei-Yin Chen has had limited opportunities the last couple of seasons due to injuries. He has one more walk than strikeouts in two starts this year. Every batter in the Chicago lineup with more than 30 PAs against southpaws over the last calendar year is above a 100 wRC+ above them. Kris Bryant (149 wRC+, .214 ISO), Javier Baez (147 wRC+, .323 ISO) and Willson Contreras (131 wRC+, .229 ISO) have dealt the most punishment.