Steven Brault Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

This is not a bad spot for lefty starter Steven Brault in terms of environment or conditions (Pittsburgh is generally a negative run environment that suppresses RH power). However, he brings the second highest walk rate on the slate (11%) with a .356 xwOBA at home since last year to face a team that not only hammers southpaws (109 wRC+, 21.1 K%, 15.5 HR/FB), but is also the hottest offense in the land (160 wRC+, 3.2 K-BB%, 18.7 HR/FB last seven days). The Nationals are the lowest of seven teams above five implied runs (5.07) on a nine game slate. Anthony Rendon (150 wRC+, .307 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is obviously the primary batter you want against Brault (RHBs .340 wOBA, .337 xwOBA last calendar year). However, both Howie Kendrick (130 wRC+, .200 ISO) and Kurt Suzuki (166 wRC+, .271 ISO) are less than $3K on FanDuel. Every player in the Washington projected lineup exceeds a 100 wRC+ vs LHP over the last 12 months, while each of the batters with more than 10 PAs over the last week have at least a 130 wRC+ over that span.

For his career, Steven Brault has a 4.62 ERA, 5.13 xFIP and 4.99 SIERA with a 6.5% K-BB and 9.5% SwStr. He also has a career .348 xwOBA allowed with an 87.5 aEV, but does do a good job preventing barreled balls with just a 5.5% barrel rate. This includes innings pitched as both a starter and as a reliever, as he has appeared in 76 games and started only 22 of them. As a starter, Brault has a 4.37 ERA, 5.25 xFIP and 6.5% K-BB with a 1.2 HR/9. The Padres have a healthy 5.10 implied total for this matchup and have some intriguing bats for this matchup, some of them being great values across the industry. Manny Machado (.454 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Hunter Renfroe (.422), Fernando Tatis Jr. (.411), Franmil Reyes (.353), Manuel Margot (.315) and Eric Hosmer (.294) are all in play today vs. Brault. Franmil Reyes is just $4k and projects to bat in the top 5 of the order. Manny Machado has finally started to heat up with a .412 xwOBA over the past 14 days, but carries just a $4.7k price on Draftkings due to struggles earlier in the year. Hosmer projects to bat 2nd and is available for $4.2k. On Fanduel, all of these guys can be had for $3.8k or less, with Renfroe coming in as a great value there with a $3.1k price.

Steven Brault has had a rough year so far with a 5.45 ERA / 5.77 xFIP / 5.46 SIERA, a 5.1% K-BB, 41.9% hard contact rate and 9.1% SwStr between the bullpen and rotation for Pirates. Brault also has a .373 xwOBA allowed and 89.3 MPH aEV on the year along with a 6.76 SIERA and -1% K-BB over the past 30 days. Christian Yelich (.453 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Mike Moustakas (.382), Ryan Braun (.340), Lorenzo Cain (.333) and Jesus Aguilar (.313) are all great options in the MIL projected order Sunday afternoon vs. Brault. Hernan Perez (.272) is just $3.7k on Draftkings and projects to hit near the top of the order. Aguilar is just $3.2k as he’s struggled so far in 2019 but had a 144 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2018. Manny Pina has a .550 xwOBA vs. LHP this year, though in just 15 PA. Cain and Braun should bat near the top of the order for the Brewers and are both available under $4.5k. The Brewers have a healthy 5.77 implied line Sunday afternoon vs. the Pirates.

Projected to be one of the top bats against a marginal lefty, Ryan Braun's absence may create more value for other Milwuakee bats tonight. Steven Brault has allowed 16 runs, four unearned, which is why his 3.90 ERA is a run below his estimators through just six starts with a 7.7 K-BB%, although it helps that he pitches in Pittsburgh too (10.0 HR/FB). Tonight, he is in Milwaukee, a major park downgrade. He's faced the Brewers twice with two of his three HRs allowed against them (Santana and Carter). RHBs, with which the Brewers stack the lineup entirely, have a .364 wOBA against him so far. Players can look to Domingo Santana (160 wRC+, .270 ISO vs LHP since 2015) as a cheap source of power ($3.2K on FD) out of the cleanup spot tonight. He has a 192 wRC+ and 56.3 Hard% over the last week. Chris Carter (.347 ISO), Jonathan Villar and Orlando Arcia (170 wRC+) all add at least a 140 wRC+ and .197 ISO against LHP this season. Only Carter costs more than $3.2K on FanDuel. Arcia is $3.6K on DraftKings.

Steven Brault showed excellent strikeout stuff in Triple-A this year (25.8%), though his rise in strikeouts in the Minors coincided with a rise in walks. The walks have carried over to the Majors so far for Brault (11.0% BB%), but the strikeouts have not (17.4% K%). If we had faith in Brault, we would love him today against a Phillies squad that is horrendous against left-handed pitching, and ranks 29th in both wOBA and strikeout rate over the last month. It’s difficult to trust Brault, however, as he seems like a pitcher who is simply not quite ready for the big leagues. If thinking that the plus matchup trounces his skill set and readiness, then there are certainly reasons to back up a decision to roster Brault. But be warned that it comes with a bit more risk than it might seem on the surface.

The overall pitching profile for Steven Brault isn't anything to write home about, but he is minimum salary on DraftKings and extremely affordable at $5.8K on FanDuel. His SIERA of 4.98 is actually much higher than we would have expected just analyzing his numbers, as he has allowed hard contact just 27.1% of the time and hasn’t exactly been super lucky with an above-average .316 BABIP allowed. The high SIERA is likely primarily due to his 11.5% walk rate, which is obviously concerning. The matchup is a good one at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark against the fading Reds offense. Brault was highly owned in his last start, but that came against the strikeout-prone Milwaukee lineup, who players are targeting pitchers against repeatedly nowadays. Brault shouldn't be as highly owned tonight, and could be a nice option in tournaments to to pay up for expensive bats.

Steven Brault had a strikeout to right-handed batters in the minors this year of over 26%, with a solid changeup he is able to use if he gets ahead in the count. Of course, Brault has his work cut out for him today, as Kris Bryant (176 wRC+, .438 wOBA, .329 ISO vs LHP), Ben Zobrist (135 wRC+, .377 wOBA, .164 ISO vs LHP), Dexter Fowler (136 wRC+, .378 wOBA, .185 ISO vs LHP), and Willson Contreras (127 wRC+, .365 wOBA, .186 ISO vs LHP) all do a fantastic job putting the ball in play against left-handed pitching. The Cubs jump out as one of those stack or fade situations with so many other great spots for offense on this slate. With that said, Bryant can always be considered as a one off option, especially against a left-handed pitcher making his third career start. This is why we would prefer a full stack in this spot hoping to take advantage all at once if the stage and/or matchup is too much for Brault to handle.

Steven Brault has seen enormous jumps in his strikeout rate as he’s risen through the minors, from 16.5% in 13 high A starts last year to 22% when he moved up to AA for the last 15. This year, he has a 30.8 SwStr% in 50 AAA innings, but also his first double digit walk rate with a fastball that only hits 91 mph. He impressively debuted striking out five of 18 Cardinals before being removed after 82 pitches, which is something players may need to be aware of if considering his upside for $4K on DraftKings as a complement to Scherzer perhaps against a Braun-less Brewers offense that strikes out 24.7% of the time vs LHP. While there's not much info on Brault in terms of splits, Jonathan Villar has hit LHP very well this seaon (144 wRC+) and Chris Carter has a .304 ISO against them this year. The cheap value play is Infielder Jake Elmore (130 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015), who bats second for just $2.1K on FanDuel and less than $3K on DraftKings as well.

Steven Brault makes his major league debut, but is not even available on the two major sites. The 24 year old former 11th round pick has a 28.2 K% in eight AAA starts this season and is only a middling prospect (Pirates #15 via fangraphs) despite what's considered a high-upside arm. The Cardinals have struggled with LHPs (90 wRC+) so it may not be the best move to just all out assault the rookie, but Stephen Piscotty has mauled LHP this season (199 wRC+, .264 ISO) and has to be a top OF bat tonight. Matt Carpenter is very expensive, but handles same side pitchers well (143 wRC+, .213 ISO). Both have a wRC+ above 190 and hard hit rate above 60% over the last week. Min-priced bat Tommy Pham (111 wRC+ vs LHP career) bats 7th for players in great need of salary relief.