Steven Matz Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

If we’re looking at paying down for pitching tonight, perhaps we’re looking at guys like Anthony DeSclafani, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nestor Cortes, Steven Matz and Marco Gonzales, who are still pitching for something. Well, okay, maybe not Gonzales (11.1% Barrels/BBE), who has nine quality starts in his last 11 starts, but with a 5.15 xFIP. Although, four in the projected opposing lineup exceed a 29 K% vs LHP this year. Rodriguez has allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts, finally dropping his ERA below five (4.93), but only has two quality starts to show for it. In fact, he’s completed six innings in just four of his last 14 starts. For a lot of the season, estimators were around two runs below his ERA. Now, they’re a run to a run and a half with a .365 BABIP and 67.6 LOB% to go with a 20.6 K-BB% and 86.6 mph EV. The workload is one problem and while it’s actually a park upgrade for him, Washington is still a positive run environment, one of very few on the slate tonight and the Nationals can still hit LHP (112 wRC+ with just two in projected lineup above an 18 K% this season).

DeSclafani has gone eight straight starts without allowing more than three runs, but has just three quality starts in that span, failing to complete even five innings four times. The peripherals are fine (16.2 K-BB%), even if estimators ranging from a 3.64 DRA to a 4.10 SIERA are a bit above his 3.26 ERA, but DeSclafani has barely averaged five innings per start this year. The Padres have a 100 wRC+ vs RHP with only three in the projected lineup exceeding a 20.2 K% against them.

Increasing his strikeout rate to 24.6% over his last five starts has brought Matz up to 22.3% on the season, in which he’s carrying a 12.1 HR/FB that’s his lowest mark since his 35 inning rookie season (2015). A 3.88 ERA is within a quarter run of non-DRA estimators. The Orioles have a 102 wRC+ vs LHP, but that’s been dropping in the second half and Matz is at home in a more neutral run environment with four projected Baltimore batters above a 24 K% vs LHP. An 11.4 SwStr% over Nestor Cortes’s last eight starts has added more validity to his 25.5 K% as a starter, a span over which he’s generated just 25.7% of contact on the ground with an 89.7 mph EV, but still produced a 3.31 ERA. Of course, estimators are higher (85.3 LOB%), but with a 19.6 K-BB%, he’s removed a lot of doubt. The Rays have a 105 wRC+ vs LHP with four in the projected lineup exceeding a 25 K% vs LHP.

Who else? Eli Morgan has shown some strikeout upside with six or more in six of his 17 starts, but there’s also a fair amount of risk in his 28.7 GB% and 89.5 mph EV, resulting in 18 home runs on 31 barrels (12.4%) in just 83.2 innings. The good news is that all estimators are below his 5.27 ERA. The bad news is the lowest of them is a 4.44 SIERA. Texas has an 87 wRC+ vs RHP and the park is a negative run environment with the roof closed. Four in the opposing projected lineup have at least a 23.5 K% vs RHP, which isn’t great, but Morgan can be a viable GPP play at a low price, attempting to establish his place in the rotation going forward. Lastly, Jon Gray didn’t exactly re-establish himself as a front line starter this year, but it was a nice bounce back from a pretty awful showing last year with a perfectly average 14.7 K-BB%, nearly half his contact on the ground (49.1%) and just 6.1% Barrels/BBE. His 4.28 ERA is actually a bit above estimators ranging from a 3.59 DRA to a 4.22 SIERA. He’s headed into free agency and faces an Arizona lineup, likely without a lot of strikeouts, but with a 78 wRC+ vs RHP. Another little tidbit in this game is that the roof is expected to be open according to the team website and Statcast Park Factors actually suggest that makes it a more pitcher friendly environment since the humidor installation.

Overall, it’s been another middling season for Steven Matz (4.37 ERA / 4.29 xFIP, 14.9% K-BB, 1.35 WHIP) but given his wide home-away splits, we can always get a good idea of when to play him and when to fade. For his career, Matz has posted a 3.54 ERA / 3.62 xFIP, 16.8% K-BB and .299 xwOBA allowed in home starts, compared to a 4.67 ERA / 4.37 xFIP, 13% K-BB and .311 xwOBA allowed in road starts. Matz gets a matchup at home versus the Braves tonight, who do have a solid 101 wRC+ with a 23.6% K rate vs. LHP this year, though they will be without slugger Ronald Acuna. Matz’s price is what makes him most intriguing tonight, as he is just $7.4k on Draftkings and $7.7k on Fanduel. He projects as one of the better PTs/$ options on the board tonight across both major sites. The Braves currently have a 4.25 implied total vs. Matz and the Mets.

An important aspect to remember as we embark on the last week of the regular season is team motivation. We can’t just assume a pitcher is set for his normal workload. Teams generally fall into one of four categories when it comes to pitcher workload management this time of year: getting pitchers ready for the post-season, still playing for a post-season spot, more cautiously managing the workload of younger pitchers or those with recent injuries, all systems go. A short five game slate allows us to examine all 10 pitchers tonight and see what category they fall into.

Looking towards the post-season: This is an easy one because the answer is nobody! The Cardinals are the only team in action tonight who have already clinched a post-season berth, but still have a magic number of four to clinch the division. It’s not out of reach for the Brewers.

Still playing for something: This is a bit trickier because teams like the Phillies (Zach Eflin) and Mets (Steven Matz) have absolutely no margin for error. This is not necessarily a positive in terms of choosing your daily fantasy pitcher because these pitchers are likely to have the shortest leash should something go wrong. Matz has been excellent at home (1.84 ERA, .282 xwOBA, 3.19 FIP, 3.67 xFIP) and is in a great spot against the Marlins (79 wRC+ vs LHP). He costs just $7.6K on DraftKings and should be fine here.

The Nationals (Patrick Corbin) are very close to locked in for a wild card spot, but we’re not sure which one. Corbin is second on the board with a 28.4 K%, .301 xwOBA and 3.87 ERA, but first with a 3.08 DRA. He may be the top overall arm on the board and should probably be treated as much. Adam Wainwright is in a similar situation, but he’s a low upside arm with a 14.8 K% over the last 30 days and has just a 7.2 SwStr% on the season with non-FIP estimators well above his ERA.

The game in New York tonight will feature two southpaws against two offenses who have done a lot of damage to LHPs this year. Both Robbie Ray and Steven Matz have been above average pitchers with an ERA right around four, but both are also among the bottom three on the board in terms of Barrels/BBE.

Over his last four starts, Ray has walked 16.7% of batters and while his strikeout rate has remained consistent at 30.6%, it does so with a drop in SwStr to 11% over that span. His 10.2% Barrels/BBE is second worst on the board. Ray has also been merely average vs RHBs this year (.328 wOBA, .325 xwOBA). The projected lineup for the Mets features five RHBs above a 125 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs LHP this year: Amed Rosario (131 wRC+, .213 ISO), Pete Alonso (151 wRC+, .366 ISO), J.D. Davis (131 wRC+, .205 ISO), Wilson Ramos (159 wRC+, .196 ISO) and Todd Frazier (128 wRC+, .231 ISO). More interestingly, Alonso is the only one above $4K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel.

Steven Matz has been quite a bit better recently and perhaps doesn’t deserve to be attacked that hard. He has a 2.17 ERA and .258 xwOBA over the last month, though a SIERA two runs higher over that span and has allowed 9.1% Barrels/BBE on the year. The projected lineup for the Diamondbacks does not contain a single left-handed bat and while Matz has allowed just a .314 wOBA to RHBs with a supporting .312 xwOBA, 18 of his 23 HRs have been surrendered to batters from that side. The Arizona projected lineup features five batters above a 140 wRC+ and .250 ISO against southpaws this season: Ketel Marte (146 wRC+, .294 ISO), Eduardo Escobar (128 wRC+, .277 ISO), Wilmer Flores (147 wRC+, .315 ISO), Nick Ahmed (144 wRC+, .260 ISO) and Carson Kelly (193 wRC+, .333 ISO). Weather and umpire may also lean towards boosting offense in a normally very negative run environment, as premium subscribers can confirm. With both teams implied for just 4.25 runs tonight, this could be a sneaky spot for offense.

It has been an up and down season for Matz, which has ultimately seen him post a 4.18 ERA, 4.27 xFIP and 4.42 SIERA with a 15% K-BB, 1.34 WHIP, 46.8% GB rate and 9.3% SwStr. Per Statcast, he’s also allowed a .330 xwOBA, 10% barrel rate and 88.5 MPH aEV. Matz has encouragingly shown much better over the past 30 days, posting a 2.56 ERA, 3.34 xFIP, 19.5% K-BB and a .280 xwOBA allowed. Statcast shows he’s been throwing his sinker a bit less over the past 30 days which has a .346 xwOBA allowed on the year, and throwing more of his slider which has a .301 xwOBA allowed. Matz gets a matchup at home with the Braves tonight, who have been exactly average this year vs. LHP with a 100 wRC+ and 23% K rate. The Braves are missing a few of their regulars (Dansby Swanson, Nick Markakis, Austin Riley) and have a 17th ranked .317 xwOBA over the past 30 days. Matz has been much better in home starts: he has a 3.91 ERA / 3.58 xFIP, 17.8% K-BB and .309 xwOBA allowed at home compared to a 4.98 ERA / 4.93 xFIP, 10% K-BB and .334 xwOBA in road starts since 2017. Matz is decently affordable in the mid $8k range on both major sites, and doesn’t figure to see high ownership. The Braves currently have a 4.25 implied total.

Steven Matz faced these Pirates over the weekend and threw a five hit shutout in just 99 pitchers, striking out seven. He’s now allowed just four runs in 19 innings since the break. Part of that is opposition based. The Pirates own just an embarrassing 73 wRC+ vs LHP, which includes a 23 K%, 4.7 BB% and 12.8 HR/FB. While Pittsburgh is not as negative a run environment as Citi Field, it’s still a fantastic park for a left-handed pitcher. Matz’s season numbers are now about league average (14.3 K-BB%, 4.32 ERA, 4.51 SIERA, 4.41 DRA, .336 xwOBA). His 10.7% Barrels/BBE is a problem and second highest on the board, but if there’s one thing that this park does more favorably for pitchers than his home park, it’s suppress RH power. To sum, we have a potentially league average pitcher facing a terrible offense in a decent park at a cost below $8K. Tonight’s highest priced pitchers are Lance Lynn (Tigers), Mike Clevinger (Angels) and Robbie Ray (Nationals), putting two of the three in poor spots tonight. It may be worth considering choosing your pitching from the middle of the board tonight.