Steven Wright Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Orioles have a 4.41 implied run line tonight that's' fourth best on the board. The big questions is...why? While RHBs have a wOBA against Steven Wright 51 points higher than LHBs since last season, xwOBA closes that gap to five points with batters from both sides a bit below .350. That's a beatable pitcher, but this Baltimore lineup, now lacking Manny Machado, has just three batters above a 91 wRC+ against RHP since last year and nobody above a 113 wRC+ or a .195 ISO. Who even knows if those numbers apply against knuckleballers though? Adam Jones (110 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP) may be a reasonable roster for $3.5K or less tonight. The only batter in the lineup above a league average hard hit rate over the last week has been Chance Sisco (152 wRC+, 60 Hard%).

If players don't wish to pay up for pitching, there are a number of interesting mid and even low priced pitchers. Jack Flaherty has allowed 10 runs over his last 10 innings (seven earned) and a HR in four straight starts, but his 26.1 K% is third best on the board and aside from the Padres' 72 wRC+ and 21.2 K-BB% on the road or their 25.7 K% vs RHP, Flaherty's slider needs to be considered tonight. He throws it 28.2% of the time. It has a .260 xwOBA, 82.5 mph aEV and 41.2 Whiff%. He should throw that pitch even more because the Padres have a -24.8 wSL that's second worst in baseball according to Fangraphs. Break that down on a per pitch level and their -1.84 wSL/C is the worst mark in baseball by far. Steven Wright shut out the Tigers for seven innings in his first start and while the knuckleball is always unpredictable, the futility of the Baltimore offense (18.1 K-BB% vs RHP) is not. He costs just $6.2K on FanDuel. Ryan Yarbrough finally gets to start a game. Each of his last four "outings" have lasted more than five innings with a 13 SwStr% in each of the last two. His 27.3% 95+ mph EV is second best on the board among those with more than 25 innings. He costs $6.1K or less on either site (a great SP2 on DraftKings for $5.6K perhaps) and the Blue Jays have just an 88 wRC+ against LHP this year.

There was a time when Steven Wright could do no wrong, even while finishing the first three months of the season with an xFIP between 4.12 and 4.63. Only in the last month has Wright’s elevated xFIP translated into noticeable struggles, considering Wright is allowing a HR/9 over 1.00 for the first time this season, entering today’s game with an August HR/9 of 1.20. While Wright’s hard hit contact has remained steady, hovering between 27% and 31%, his fly ball percentage has skyrocketed in recent outings, standing at 51% in August. Evan Longoria is putting the ball in the air 55% of the time over the last week while making hard contact on 50% of his batted balls. According to the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors, Fenway provides a league-neutral setting for right-handed home runs but does boast a generous 1.22 doubles rating for RHBs, giving Longoria a boost in a plus matchup.

Although Drew Smyly has had a solid season thus far with a 3.99 SIERA and 23.9% K rate, he has the misfortune of facing the Red Sox at Fenway. Vegas has projected the Red Sox to top five runs and if you're looking for bats outside of the Coors game it's a good place to look. He's particularly vulnerable to RH bats having allowed 32 HR's to them over the past two seasons. Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, and Mookie Betts are the top options from that side of the plate with Betts being an elite option. Hanley Ramirez, Chris Young, and David Ortiz are also playable options either on their own or as part of a Red Sox stack. Steven Wright takes the mound for the home team and while he's projected to give up some runs, he's a solid favorite (-159) in line for the win. He's in play for GPP's going against a Rays team that strikes out a ton against RHP. That said there are some Rays bats you can look to, and they should be low-owned given some of the other match ups in this slate. The top four of their order (Logan Forsythe, Kevin Kiermaeir, Evan Longoria, and Brad Miller) are all worthy of consideration.

Mike Trout has a 4.89 wKN/C, a number that quantifies his success against the knuckleball dating back to 2014. This number indicates the number of runs created above average and points to Trout having a productive day against Red Sox pitcher, Steven Wright. With 17 stolen bases this year, Trout has tremendous upside today, posing as a threat to hit one out of the park and steal a base of the knuckeballer.

Steven Wright has allowed a HR and at least three ERs in three of his last four starts. While his low HR rate (still just a 6.0 HR/FB) seemed unsustainable all season, he's now struck out four or fewer in three of his last four starts as well. Though his price has dropped somewhat, he still costs over $9K on either site and is beating his non-FIP estimators by two runs. Despite the best record in the American League and plenty of LHBs, the Rangers don't hit RHP that well with only small sample Jurickson Profar (172 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP) above a 118 wRC+ that seems Ian Desmond (.202 ISO vs RHP this season) as their second best hitter and then only one other batter (Mazara) above a 91 wRC+. Yet, their 4.66 projected run total against an "All Star" pitcher has them on the top third of tonight's board. With only Odor (109 wRC+) and Andrus (138 wRC+) hitting even a lick over the last week, this might be a good situation to avoid altogether.

Steven Wright has an 2.18 ERA two runs below his 4.48 SIERA and 4.36 xFIP. Knuckleballers can sometimes work around conventional norms, but running a 5.2 HR/FB is usually not one of those things, while a .252 BABIP is questionable as well. They can beat estimators more often than other pitchers, but not by more than two runs. Wright was knocked around in his last start, knocked out in the 5th in Texas, but only three of eight runs were earned. An additional complication is that the Angels strike out a major league low 15.8% vs RHP. Wright is probably going to need to go more than seven innings to cover a $10K price tag tonight. It's not impossible, but paying up for batted ball outcomes is always more risky. While attacking him doesn't seem optimal either, Mike Trout (172 wRC+, .287 ISO vs RHP since last season) is on fire (360 wRC+ last seven days) and can probably hit any kind of ball. In six PAs against Wright, he has struck out twice with a walk. One of three batted balls (99.2 mph aEV) left the yard.

Steven Wright is a difficult pitcher to decipher due to the knuckleball that doesn't conform to most league standards and norms when it comes to advanced stats. Even if we give him credit for his .251 BABIP, the pitch shouldn't help him sustain a sub-five HR/FB (4.8). He has given players plenty of innings with a league average strikeout rate backed up by a well above average SwStr% and that's worth something and maybe even $9.4K on FanDuel if you expect him to be in line for a win, but it may be a situation to fade on DraftKings for over $11K. Marginal White Sox bats escape our attention tonight, as Wright has held batters from both sides to a wOBA below .300 since last season, though RHBs to have a 35% hard hit rate.

Steven Wright might get some real credit for a .254 BABIP with his knuckleball, but has shown some control issues, leaving him with a below league average 11.1 K-BB% with an unsustainable 3.9 HR/FB. Players are paying a high price for batted ball outcomes against a tough offense. Wright threw a complete game, but walked five Orioles last time he faced them a few starts back. Splits don't mean much here, but Machado and Davis both have a wRC+ above 130 on the road and above 140 vs RHP since last season in addition to an ISO above .250 (.327 for Davis). For less than $4.5K on DraftKings, both should still be considered, especially Machado with SS eligibility.