T.J. Rivera Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Players looking to play up for pitching or Coors bats should have plenty of cost saving opportunities elsewhere on this slate. Though not yet confirmed, Matt Joyce (121 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP since last season) may bat near the top of the Oakland lineup against Ricky Nolasco. He costs less than than $3K on either site, along with teammate Yonder Alonso (339 wRC+, 5 HRs last seven days) for $2.8K on DraftKings. Joey Rickard (127 wRC+, .162 ISO vs LHP career) bats leadoff against Gio Gonzalez for the minimum cost on Fanduel ($1K more on DraftKings). Andrew Toles (123 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP) meets that price tag on DraftKings against rookie Trevor Williams. Wilmer Flores (196 wRC+, .381 ISO vs LHP since last season) mashes lefties (Matt Moore) out of the cleanup spot tonight ($3.1K on DK, $2.3K on FD). Teammate T.J. Rivera bats second for less than $3K on either site. Tommy Pham bats further down in the order for the Cardinals, but brings players a 369 wRC+ over the last week for the minimum on FanDuel ($3K on DraftKings). Jordy Mercer (111 wRC+, .185 ISO since last season) may also now hit leadoff for less than $3K against replacement Alex Wood. Looking at below average leadoff bats on the cheap might bring you more towards Wilmer Difo ($3.1K DK, $2.3K FD) and Alcides Escobar ($3K DK, $2.2K FD).

We're still waiting for several lineups, but it already appears like a great day for cheap top of the lineup value that might be necessary with several $10K pitchers on the mound tonight. Kolten Wong (95 wRC+, .142 ISO vs RHP since 2016) leads off for the Cardinals in Atlanta tonight for $2.7K on DraftKings against Mike Foltynewicz (LHBs .354 wOBA since 2015). Jose Martinez (98 wRC+) bats second for $2.6K or less on either site. T.J. Rivera (154 wRC+, 190 ISO vs RHP) and Josh Bell (123 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP) both bat second against Tom Koehler and Jimmy Nelson at $3.1K or less on DK, while the former is just $2.4K on FD. Seth Smith (122 wRC+, .182 ISO vs RHP since 2016) leads off against Miguel Gonzalez for just $2.7K on FanDuel. Tim Beckham (115 wRC+, .162 ISO vs LHP since 2016) also leads off against Francisco Liriano for less than $3K on DraftKings. Matt Davidson (139 wRC+, .222 ISO vs LHP) does not bat leadoff, but only costs $2.3K on FanDuel, batting fifth against Wade Miley.

Marc Simon, an ESPN writer, who does a great job covering the Mets, tweeted an interesting little tidbit concerning the umpire drawing the home plate assignment for tomorrow's National League Wild Card game. It seems that Mr. Winters occasionally opens up the strike zone on the outside corner to RHBs. While this would appear to be a small benefit for Madison Bumgarner, he also notes that overall, Winters has a strike zone slightly smaller than average. A later tweet also showed a graph of Bumgarner's strike calls outside the zone this season, mentioning three to four per game due to Buster Posey being the top framers in the game this year according to StatCorner.com (+26.8 RAA). Bumgarner was far from infallible in the second half of the season though (3.80 ERA, 4.11 FIP) and allowed 19 HRs on the road this season. Citi Field is a pitcher's park, but plays more neutrally towards power. Another concern, especially for FanDuel players, who have to have their lineup locked tonight, is that the Mets lineup is probably the more uncertain of the two. We have to figure that Reyes, Cabrera, Cespedes, and both Riveras will be in there from the right side with Granderson and Bruce from the left, but Terry Collins last week even mentioned the possibility of using Eric Campbell at First Base tomorrow night. The Mets scored four runs the last time they faced Bumgarner a month and a half ago in San Francisco. All four of those runs came on a Grand Slame from Justin Ruggiano, who won't be available in this game.

In 50 major league innings, Alec Asher has just an 11.1 K%, while maintaining a league average hard hit rate (29.9%), but a 0.83 GB/FB in Philadelphia is a bit dangerous as he's allowed eight HRs, though none this year. LHBs have a .381 wOBA and .354 ISO. As such, Mets LHBs project well here on either site. Granderson, Bruce and Duda all have a wRC+ within two points of 120 vs RHP this season with an ISO above .200 and a wRC+ above 200 over the last week. Down in the lineup, Duda costs just $2.7K on FanDuel. Asdrubal Cabrera (118 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP this season) has cooled down a bit and costs $3.4K on FanDuel. RHBs have a .331 wOBA, but just a 23.5 Hard% against Asher. Cespedes and T.J. Rivera both have an ISO above .200 against RHP this season.

Adam Morgan has had some decent results over his last four starts (2.35 ERA), including a 13.5 K-BB% and 47.1 GB% with a 28.6 Hard%, though his estimators are a bit higher due to a .250 BABIP and 4.8 HR/FB. For the season, he’s generated as many fly balls as ground balls with a 34.7 Hard%, which is just asking for trouble in Philadelphia, but he gets a park upgrade in Citi Field tonight (though it's been more neutral towards power in recent seasons). He’s looked interesting over short spans before, but eventually reverted, so the lean is towards siding with a Mets offense that has hit him well and is projected for 4.5 runs here. A top four Mets stack is a completely reasonable approach tonight. Though not expected to sustain, Jose Reyes has absolutely crushed LHP (including Morgan) this year (229 wRC+, .386 ISO) and costs just $2.7K on FanDuel. Asdrubel Cabrera (123 wRC+, .148 ISO vs LHP this season) remains red hot (211 wRC+ over the last week), as does T.J. Rivera (194 wRC+ over the last week). Yoenis Cespedes (190 wRC+, .304 ISO vs LHP this season) is the top bat, but also the only really expensive one.

Aaron Blair has a 1.2 K-BB% in 54.2 major league innings. He struck out more batters in the AAA, but didn’t walk many fewer. LHBs have a .439 wOBA and 32.3 Hard%, while RHBs have not hit the ball as hard, but still have a .357 wOBA against a pitcher who has had issues finding the plate in the majors. This is a pitcher players can look to attack tonight with several Mets bats tonight. The resurgent Curtis Granderson (133 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Asdrubal Cabrera (109 wRC+, .189 ISO vs RHP since 2015). Cespedes (139 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP since 2015) could be considered among them as well, but has struggled recently (53 wRC+ last seven days) and left yesterday's game with "dizzyness and nausea". This could be a great spot for players looking to save cost though, with T.J. Rivera (177 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP) below $3K and Michael Conforto (125 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP career) less than $3.5K on either site, including the minimum on FanDuel.

Jose Berrios is an amazingly talented arm (28.9 K% at AAA), who has missed bats at nearly a league average rate in the majors (19.0 K%, 9.0 SwStr%), but also sports a 12.7 BB% and 35.8 Hard%, walking at least four in five of his 11 starts with 10 HRs allowed. A patient Mets offense should be able to take advantage of him and it's actually RHBs that have hit him much harder this season (.470 wOBA, 40.8 Hard%, seven HRs), which sets up perfectly for Yoenis Cespedes (140 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP since 2015) as a strong OF play. A potentially interesting Third Base play, whom nobody is likely to be on is the RH T.J. Rivera (125 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP), who has a 213 wRC+ over the last week. He has a 142 wRC+ at AAA this season as well. Neither his nor Berrios's sample against RHBs are large enough to draw significant conclusions from yet, but it's something that has happened and is a reasonably cheap risk to take for around $2.5K on either site. The Mets are projected to score five runs tonight.

Zack Godley hasn’t started a game in two weeks, but went six innings in that game and 5.1 in his most recent relief outings, so he should have enough in reserve to get through five or six innings today. Although his 18.0 K% sits a bit below average, he’s been missing quite a few bats (12.1% last 30 days) and a 53.3 GB% over the last month should help him keep the ball in the park. The Mets have scored a few runs in the first couple of games of this series, but are a below average, banged up offense with a 22 K% both on the road (89 wRC+) and vs RHP (91 wRC+). It’s not a bad matchup, even factoring in the hindering park effects. There might be some potential in this arm for $4.2K on DraftKings. This Mets lineup is somehow projected for five runs tonight and there are a couple of cheap bats that could return a decent value, particularly with Kelly Johnson (100 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) batting second and Travis d'Arnaud (103 wRC vs RHP since 2015) each just above $3.5K on DK and below $3K on FD. Both have a wRC+ above 200 over the last week. T.J. Rivera is the other interesting play here. He had four hits last night and a 103 wRC+ in his first 23 major league PAs with a 140 wRC+ at AAA this season. He costs $3K or less on either site.

Paul Clemens is a terrible pitcher (4.61 ERA, 5.18 SIERA, 5.8 SwStr%) facing an ice cold team (46 wRC+, 20.0 K-BB% over the last week) in a negative run environment. You'd think there would be some usable bats here, but only Neil Walker (113 wRC+, .174 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a wRC+ above 75 over the last week (228) and then only Jay Bruce (109 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP since 2015) joins him above 25 or with a hard hit rate above 27%. While batters from either side have a hard hit rate above 40% this season, RHBs actually have a much higher .442 wOBA, so perhaps the rookie T.J. Rivera, who just made his debut a couple of days ago, is worth a $2.7K or less price tag in the second spot.