Taijuan Walker Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

If we comb through PlateIQ to find the highest average strikeout rates and consider pitcher workloads (average batters faced per start), we can get a pretty quick and dirty idea of some of the highest upside spots on the slate and potentially find an under-valued gem. This method is especially useful when trying to navigate an affordable SP2 on DraftKings, where we’re not as worried about the Quality Start. Unfortunately, today’s potential highest upside spots come with some issues. Those spots include pitchers facing the Brewers, Rangers, Mariners and Tigers.

The Mariners and Dodgers are the only afternoon game. The Rangers face Shohei Ohtani, who’s reported to limited to 75 pitches. The forecast for the Pirates and Tigers reads exactly “Lol, nope” on the Weather Page. Chris Paddack is an option against the Brewers, but perhaps more so on FanDuel where he’s $3.1 K less ($6.9K). He has just a 16.9 K%, but 10.8 SwStr%. Sure, we’re concerned about his ability to go six innings, but you may have some issues identifying strong bets for a Quality Start tonight.

Let’s look at a couple more affordable pitchers in higher upside spots tonight. Both also have potential conditions in their favor according to early Weather Edge info as well. Taijuan Walker has struck out 12 of 41 batters (12 SwStr%) through two starts with a velocity increase of 1.5 mph over last year. In fact, his velocity was last this high (94.8 mph) back in 2015. While he’s allowed two Barrels (8.3%), his exit velocity is just 83 mph. The default PlateIQ filters shows 2019-21 currently and the projected Cubs lineup includes five batters above a 24 K% vs RHP since 2019, but also an entire lineup above a .340 wOBA and .180 ISO. Filter to just this season however, and the grid tells a much less concerning story. In fact, the Cubs as a team, have just a 74 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Next, we’ve reached the point where the Colorado lineup is so bad, we’re looking for visiting pitchers to stream at Coors, especially under pitcher friendly weather conditions, which we may have tonight. Luis Garcia struck out one of 17 Angels in his first start, but then seven of 16 Tigers in a relief outing over a week ago. He has some upside with elevated minor league strikeout rates, although he’s never pitched above A ball aside from his major league work. A concern would be just three of his 21 batted balls have been on the ground this year. The projected Colorado lineup has just two position players below a 23 K% vs RHP sicne 2019.

Cody Bellinger did hit his first HR on Sunday, but entered that game without a hit on the season. He bats fifth instead of his usual cleanup in Arizona tonight. Taijuan Walker had a 3.49 ERA last season, but much higher estimators due to 15 unearned runs. His 88.2 mph aEV is third highest on the board. Perhaps the humidor will help him, but the park is an offensive upgrade for the Dodger regardless. Bellinger still has a career 137 wRC+ and .317 ISO vs RHP and could be a great play if it looks like he may be under-owned due to the slow start. Yasiel Puig is similarly off to a slow start (55 wRC+), but has a 136 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP since last season. Chris Taylor gets a break tonight as Joc Pederson (103 wRC+, .210 ISO) is an inexpensive leadoff bat. Yasmani Grandal (105 wRC+, .231 ISO) is an acceptable alternative to Brian McCann or Welington Castillo.

We're seeing the back end of rotations on Monday night, where Charlie Morton can be considered the only established high strikeout pitcher. DraftKings pricing is particularly tough, where Morton (26.4 K%), along with Mike Clevinger (27.3 K%) and Tanner Roark (21.4 K%) each cost $9.9K or more. While Hyun-Jin Ryu and Taijuan Walker also boast a 21.4 K% from last season, the former rarely goes much more than five innings and the latter has a difficult matchup with the Dodgers, even if we're still counting on the humidor to under-value pitchers at this point in the season. Morton pitches in the most negative run environment in baseball the last few years and faces a predominantly right-handed Baltimore lineup. However, he had a reverse split last season, striking out more LHBs (32.8%), while generating more ground balls (56.1 GB%, 0.4 Hard-Soft%) against RHBs. That may bring down his upside somewhat, but he still struck out righties at a league average pace last year (20.9%). Clevinger struggles with his walk rate (12.5%), does carry the top strikeout rate on the board and walked just four batters this spring. He completed six innings in nine of his last 13 starts last season. Tanner Roark's value lies in the fact that he is probably the pitcher most likely to finish six innings tonight. He's the only pitcher on the board to average at least six innings per start over the last two calendar years. Lower priced potential pitchers of interest may include Bryan Mitchell, who had higher strikeout rates in the minors than he's had in the majors so far and faces a perennially awful road offense in the Rockies in San Diego tonight, Brian Johnson, who's similarly struggles to miss bats in the majors, but travels to Miami and struck out 13 in 15.2 spring innings, and Andrew Triggs, who has exhibited a double digit SwStr% and 50+ GB% in each of his two seasons before 2017 ended early due to injury. He's in a strong spot at home against a Texas offense that was exposed )82 wRC+, 26.1 K%) outside a very hitter friendly home park last season.

The 4.44 implied run line for the Dodgers trails only the Astros today, while Taijuan Walker can probably be considered the weakest pitcher on the board, though in the least run friendly environment. While Walker had very little platoon split, batters from both side were league average against him with a wOBA just above .310 and hard hit rate around one-third of batted balls. All Dodger starters except for Logan Forsythe have a wRC+ above 100 against RHP this year, while Cody Bellinger (140 wRC+, .323 ISO) has been the top hitter on the team. Yasiel Puig (135 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP) is a strong OF play for less than $4K on either site. Corey Seager (120 wRC+, .176 ISO vs RHP) appears to be a great value for just $3.1K on FanDuel, though he has been dealing with an elbow issue over the last month. It's hard to find an unreasonable play in this lineup at current prices aside from Forsythe. Additional factors players will certainly want to consider here are weather, bullpen and umpiring. Kevin notes warmer than usual weather in Los Angeles tonight, which may be a slight boost for hitters. The Arizona bullpen was middling this year, which actually makes it one of the weaker post-season pens, though they are not devoid of weapons with Archie Bradley (20 K-BB%) taking over a set-up role, but certainly capable of going multiple innings in the playoffs. Walker getting the start also means they will have either Zack Godley or Patrick Corbin available as a multi-inning relief option as well. Paul Nauert is the home plate umpire according to Yahoo Sports. According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors, available on RotoGrinders, in 294 opportunities, players have a 19.9 K% and 7.9 BB%. Swish considers him a pitcher friendly umpire (1.11 K-Boost, 0.91 BB-Boost), as if Kershaw needs the additional help. Jeff Mathis is a strong pitch framer, which could give Walker an additional boost here.

The Friday slate is two games short of being full with a Wrigley day game and a Houston PPD. The game at Coors has both teams projected for about six runs. Ten of 24 remaining teams have an implied run line between 4.9 and 5.4 runs. The Coors matchup, Taijuan Walker vs Kyle Freeland, features two competent pitchers, but also two that have not been at their peak recently. Freeland has a ground ball rate below 40% with a hard hit rate above 35% in three of his last four starts (discounting his 0.1 inning outing). Walker has just 12 Ks over his last four, but a 55.9 GB% and 23.7 Hard% over his last three starts. While RHBs have a 59.1 GB% and 29.6 K% against Freeland for the season, they also carry a .336 wOBA. Over these last four starts, it's a .399 wOBA, 46.3 GB% and 36.4 Hard%. Your lefty mashing D'Backs: J.D. Martinez (259 wRC+, .537 ISO), Paul Goldschmidt (155 wRC, .270 ISO) and even Chris Iannetta (155 wRC+, .237 ISO) are all in play. Though very expensive, Martinez and Goldschmidt each have a 58% hard hit rate over the last week. Taijuan Walker has very little platoon split, keeping most of the Colorado lineup in play in this environment, with Charlie Blackmon (152 wRC+, .303 ISO vs RHP) the obvious standout. Mark Reynolds and Nolan Arenado have a wRC+ around average, but ISOs above .230 vs RHP this year.

The RotoGrinders Player Projections like Coors bats tonight with Charlie Blackmon, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, and Nolan Arenado all among the top five overall point projections along with Aaron Judge at home against Ricky Nolasco. Colorado and the Yankees are the two offenses with implied run lines above six tonight with Arizona a bit lower a 5.44 currently. The pitching at Coors does have the talent to foil plans. Jeff Hoffman has a 28.4 K% and 2.25 ERA with an 11.3 SwStr% and 3.37 SIERA that are only slightly less optimistic. Taijuan Walker had a strong April before a poor May led to a DL stint. He bounced back with a strong start last time out and is a talented pitcher when healthy. Among players projected for at least seven DK points, Wilmer Flores (vs Rich Hill) and Miguel Sano (vs David Holmberg) project as top values (both at 2.54 Pt/$/K). Sano costs just $3.9K! Projections for FanDuel like Robbie Grossman (3.74 Pt/$/K) from the same lineup and Jedd Gyorko (3.69 Pt/$/K) as top values.

The RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor has Justin Verlander (6.16) and Carlos Carrasco (6.09) essentially tied tonight with James Paxton (5.87), Taijuan Walker (5.84) and Jeff Samardzija (5.75) not far behind. The RotoGrinders Player Projections see Jose Berrios and Carlos Carrasco as the top two overall arms. Carrasco, appearing second in both spots, would appear to be the comfortable play today against a primarily RH lineup in Baltimore. He's held batters from that side of the plate to a .247 wOBA and 21.4 K-BB% this season. Berrios has been good, but has seen his price tag shoot way up and may have some trouble supporting his 2.74 ERA with a .230 BABIP and 81.1 LOB%. He may be a bit over-priced. Justin Verlander has extreme fly ball tendencies (34.4 GB%) with just a 16.9 K% over the last month (20.7% for the year). James Paxton has struck out just 11 of his last 66 batters, walking nine, while allowing 14 ERs over 12.2 innings with dropping velocity. There may be some health questions there. Taijuan Walker just returned to strike out six over five innings of one run ball. If healthy, he had a 20.8 K-BB% in April before a 2.0 K-BB% in May preceding a trip to the DL. The concerns for him tonight are Coors and a possible pitch count (82 in his first start back). Jeff Samardzija would appear to be another strong play if the weather cooperates. Outside of Coors, he has a 3.81 ERA and 29 K%. The Braves don't strike out much, but make up for that with a real lack of power. Jordan Montgomery may be the wild card here. His 9.4 HR/FB may not be sustainable in that park, but he faces a low power offense (Angels) and has the second highest SwStr rate (12.9%) on the slate. Sean Manaea has the highest (15.0%), but faces the Astros (126 wRC+ at home, 113 wRC+ vs LHP, 173 wRC+ over the last week).