Tanner Roark Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The game in Milwaukee seems ripe for offense tonight. On the one hand, Tanner Roark has seen some regression over the last month (5.82 ERA) as his SIERA remains around 4.50. His .387 xwOBA over that span is second worst on the board over this span. After shutting down Milwaukee five starts back, he allowed three HRs to the Brewers two starts later. Now they’ll see him for the third time in six starts. A .371 wOBA (.362 xwOBA) against LHBs over the last year, does not seem ideal when facing Christian Yelich (215 wRC+, .412 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), who seems to homer more often than not against RHP at home, Yasmani Grandal (122 wRC+, .240 ISO) and Mike Moustakas (116 wRC+, .249 ISO).

On the other hand, Zach Davies has allowed just two ERs over his last 22.1 IP, but did not strike out a single batter over seven innings last time out. He hasn’t faced the Reds in a while, but opened his season against them with four walks and then allowed a season high six runs against them in May. His 2.79 ERA is about half his non-FIP estimators (all above five) and while he’s managed contact well (5.7% Barrels/BBE is third best on the board), he has just a 14.8 K% and even his xwOBA (.334) suggest a below average pitcher. A 79.8 LOB% simply isn’t sustainable with that low a strikeout rate and eight of his 42 runs have been unearned. LHBs have had some success against him over the last calendar year (.325 wOBA, .335 xwOBA) and even RHBs have a league average xwOBA against him over that span. Eugenio Suarez (106 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Yasiel Puig (122 wRC+, .264 ISO) and Jesse Winker (115 wRC+, .230 ISO) are key middle the order bats here. Dropping a small premium subscriber nugget, an extremely hitter friendly umpiring assignment behind the plate in this game (Greg Gibson), could give the offense just the boost it needs here.

Although a full one-third of the board (10 teams) are implied for at least five runs on a night where there’s good hitting weather across the league, Cincinnati is the only park outside Coors where both teams reach that mark. In fact, both the Brewers and Reds are at exactly five runs currently, making this an affair where players should look for some fireworks.

Chase Anderson has a 24.3 K% on the season with an 81.5 Z-Contact%. His 37.4 GB% could be a problem here, though he’s managed contact well (86.1 mph aEV, 31.5% 95+ mph EV are both top three on the slate). His 4.42 ERA is in line with most estimators, aside from a more optimistic 3.86 DRA. Anderson has a substantial reverse split (RHBs .366 wOBA, .379 xwOBA last calendar year, LHBs .280 & .278), so it’s guys like Eugenio Suarez (101 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), who has a team leading 241 wRC+ over the last week, and Nick Senzel (84 wRC+, .187 ISO) that players should be looking at if the Reds have the foresight to push the latter towards the top of the lineup tonight.

On the other side, Tanner Roark has a 3.36 ERA with a matching FIP, but all of his other estimators are a full run higher due to an 8.1 HR/FB that seems unsustainable in this park and run scoring environment, especially with an 89.1 mph aEV. In fact, the regression has already begun with five HRs over his last five starts. Roark has a more standard platoon issue. LHBs have a .353 wOBA and xwOBA over the last calendar year, while RHBs have a .279 and .284 mark. That bodes extremely well for a lineup full of powerful LHBs in Yasmani Grandal (138 wRC+, .257 ISO), Christian Yelich (198 wRC+, .377 ISO), Mike Moustakas (113 wRC+, .249 ISO) and Eric Thames (120 wRC+, .254 ISO).

Tanner Roark has league average peripherals (15.5 K-BB%) with a completely unsustainable 7.4 HR/FB, which is why his non-FIP estimators are a about a run above his 3.47 ERA. We can’t even say he’s been a strong contact manager this year, as his 89.1 mph aEV projects a .326 xwOBA. He does get a park upgrade here, but he’ll have to face an offense with a 113 wRC+, 17.3 K% and 15.7 HR/FB vs RHP this year. The Angels are sitting within the top third of the board at 4.85 implied runs tonight and they have some left-handed power to take advantage of Roark’s .348 wOBA (.351 xwOBA) against RHP over the last calendar year. Tommy La Stella (134 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Shohei Ohtani (150 wRC+, .302 ISO) and Kole Calhoun (116 wRC+, .255 ISO) have balanced the offense well from the left side. Mike Trout (202 wRC+, .361 ISO) goes without saying despite Roark’s .289 xwOBA and wOBA against RHBs over the same span.

Tanner Roark is not an exciting name on any daily fantasy pitching slates with more than a few games and he’s facing a dangerous offense (19.4 HR/FB vs RHP) in a dangerous park (22.1 HR/FB) at home, but the Brewers also have a 25.2 K% vs RHP this year and there’s not a standout pitcher in a decent spot on this board tonight. Players want bats tonight with nearly half the board at around five implied runs or above and Roark may help get you there with some upside for just $6.5K on DraftKings. He’s sitting on a league average 22.9 K% this year and while his 6.6 HR/FB is not sustainable, especially with an 89 mph aEV, there may be room for players to benefit on each side of this matchup tonight. Certainly considering sprinkling in some Milwaukee LHBs with batters from that side above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Roark over the last calendar year. It may be worth looking into Reds’ bats too on the other side. Jimmy Nelson’s velocity is down since returning, walking six of 36 batters faced, while getting beaten up by the Marlins and Giants.

The Giants face Tanner Roark in Great American Ball Park Saturday night in what looks to be a nice spot despite a 4.07 implied total. Giants hitters get a significant park upgrade moving from their spacious AT&T Park to GABP, and face a mediocre pitcher in Roark who has a 4.35 xFIP since 2017. He has a 5.11 xFIP and an ugly .384 xwOBA allowed on the year with his new team. Roark is more vulnerable vs. lefties with a .343 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB since 2017 but a .303 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB. Joe Panik (.334 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018, batting 1st), Mike Gerber (154 wRC+ in AAA this year, batting 2nd), Brandon Belt (.366 xwOBA vs. RHP since ’18, batting 4th). Brandon Crawford (.302, batting 6th) and Steven Duggar (.250, batting 8th) are all the left-handed options in the Giants lineup. Buster Posey (.331) will bat 3rd at just $3.8k on Draftkings and is certainly in play despite being a RHB. Belt has been the Giants’ hottest hitter with a .438 xwOBA over the past 10 days. Especially on Fanduel, Giants hitters are priced down despite the park upgrade and favorable matchup. All hitters are available for under $2.9k on Fanduel and under $4.2k on Draftkings. The Giants will also have a hitter-friendly umpire in Jordan Baker.

Tanner Roark has allowed exactly one ER in three straight, but hasn’t exceeded 5.1 IP in any start and his 21.4 K% is not at all supported by a 6.4 SwStr%. In fact, it hasn’t been above 6.1% since his first start. His 4.76 SIERA is a run and a half above his 3.24 ERA. He’s also sitting on 36.5 LD%, 91.2 Z-Contact%, and 46.1 Z-O-Swing%, all bottom two or worst on the board, as is his .364 xwOBA. Generally known for generating soft contact, Roark’s 90.4 mph aEV is second worst on the board as well. This may be a spot to load up on Mets bats. Still an extremely negative run environment, the home team has allowed a 122 wRC+ in their park this season. Even going back to last season, LHBs have a .358 wOBA against Roark over the last calendar year now. Whether it’s Jeff McNeil (141 wRC+, .128 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) or Brandon Nimmo (146 wRC+, .221 ISO) at the top of the lineup, either should line up very well against Roark and if we’re talking about hard contact, we have to mention the big right-handed rookie, Pete Alonso (149 wRC+, .278 ISO), who’s 22.4% Barrels/BBE is third best in the majors.

Pitching is both difficult on this slate because only three teams are below four and a half implied runs, but also very easy because it all probably boils down to San Diego even if you’re likely overpaying for mediocrity. One the one hand, Tanner Roark has not completed six innings nor thrown 100 pitches in any of his three starts, all against NL Central opponents. He’s still the only guy on the slate averaging six innings per start over the last two calendar years, but that was for a different organization. He’s a league average strikeout (22.1%) and walk rate (8.8%) at an average price tag. The appeal is a large park upgrade and favorable matchup (Padres 83 wRC+, 17.0 K-BB% vs RHP). If we dig further down, it’s nor pretty, so best to just ignore Roark’s 6.7 SwStr%, 93.3 Z-Contact%, 43.2 Z-O-Contact%, and 90.6 mph aEV and hope for the best on this slate.

While Chris Paddack is a highly regarded prospect (Fangraphs #34 overall with a 55 Future Value grade) and has an impressive 30.8 K%, it comes with just a 9.8 SwStr%, 11.3 BB%, 3.93 SIERA, .194 BABIP, and 32.2 H-S%. Statcast does suggests he has handled contact well though (83.8 mph aEV, 3.2% Barrels/BBE) and he has a great matchup (Reds 30 wRC+, 21.8 K-BB% on the road, 57 wRC+, 17.3 K-BB% vs RHP). He hasn’t seen 90 pitches yet and costs $9K, but you’re really not going to do better tonight and considering no other pitcher costs more than $8K, players can afford to pay a little extra here. Another interesting aspect here is that the line has moved heavily in his favor.

On a seven game slate on Thursday night, no pitcher reaches $10K on either site. Clay Buchholz is the most expensive pitcher on either site ($9.5K DK). Two pitchers exceed a 22% strikeout rate. One is Taylor Cole, who has a grand total of 18 major league innings, one start and has not exceeded 48 pitches in a major league outing. The other is Jon Gray (27.1%) with the .337 BABIP, who is facing the Braves (20.4 K% vs RHP). While he did allow four runs to the Dodgers last time out, in 35 innings since returning from the minors, he's allowed just nine ERs with a .204 BABIP and 52.4 GB%, but just a 21.5 K%. However, the arsenal has included more sliders, fewer fastballs and a 14+ SwStr% in four straight games. Anywhere outside of Coors is a park upgrade and he's gone at least seven innings in four of his last five starts. It's hard not to consider him the top pitcher on this board. At .299, his xwOBA is also best on the board among those with more than one start. Another arm to consider tonight is Tanner Roark. Though it comes with just a 9.4 SwStr%, his 24.1 K% over the last month is best on the board (more than one start). His .240 xwOBA over this span is best on the board by 40 points. He's gone at least seven innings in four straight starts with just an 18.3 Hard%. His 86.8 mph aEV for the season is second best on the board to the pitcher he is facing (Luke Weaver 86.7 mph aEV). Ironically, both Gray and Roark are facing offense's who's high powered leadoff men were plunked last night and both questionable tonight. The fact that St Louis will run out a predominantly right-handed lineup plays in Roark's favor as well. Weaver (21 K%, 4.30 SIERA, .335 xwOBA) is probably a spot where some players will land for $7K in one of the most negative run environments on the board and he is a reasonable choice with at least six innings with five or more strikeouts and two runs or fewer in four of his last six starts, but Washington at full health is a difficult lineup to navigate (10.6 K-BB% vs RHP) and he will throw in a stinker every once in a while. Buchholz (20.9 K%, 4.12 SIERA, .327 xwOBA) can be considered too in San Diego (82 wRC+, 18.0 K-BB% vs RHP).