Tom Koehler Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Colorado is the only offense with an implied run line above six, nearly three quarters of a run higher than any other team tonight, though 12 of 24 tonight are at 4.78 runs or higher on a pitching deficient evening. Only four offenses have an implied run line below 4.36 in fact. Colorado may not necessarily be the chalk stack tonight though. They have the lowest wRC+ in the majors against RHP (76) with a 15.2 K-BB% and 9.1 Hard-Soft%. Meanwhile, they face a pitcher (Luis Perdomo), who has generated two-thirds of his contact on the ground. Even at Coors, ground balls don't leave the yard. In fact, at a very low cost and complimenting that ground ball rate with a nearly league average strikeout rate, there may be enough support to consider Perdomo, especially as a secondary option on DraftKings. Players may not otherwise need to differentiate their lineups much, though Houston Astros (5.49 implied runs) are sure to be popular against the LH Ariel Miranda, who has a career 5.0 K-BB% and 6.04 xFIP on the road since last season. Twenty-nine of his 32 career HRs surrendered have been hit by RHBs. George Springer (172 wRC+, .310 ISO vs LHP since last season) may and/or should be the most popular bat on the slate. He costs the same as Charlie Blackmon on FanDuel ($5.6K), but $500 less on FanDuel. If players are looking for a potential value play today and are willing to sacrifice Nolan Arenado, Matt Chapman may be worth a look at third base for $2.5K or less on either site. In a small sample, he has a 140 wRC+ and .333 ISO vs RHP with a 40.9 Hard% and 59.1% fly ball rate, while Jake Odorizzi has allowed RHBs a .338 wOBA and 37.5 Hard% since last season. In fact, he has failed to allow a HR just once this season and has allowed multiple HRs in four of his last seven. He's one of several pitchers who have been very home run prone recently on tonight's slate. Julio Teheran just snapped a nine game span where he allowed 15 HRs, Tom Koehler has allowed 12 in 10 starts, Josh Tomlin had allowed eight of his 17 on the year in five start stretch just prior to his last time out, and Chris Tillman has allowed 11 over his last seven starts.

While Koehler has shown some reverse-split tendencies throughout his career, he's struggled mightily with LH bats this season, allowing six home runs and issuing ten walks in just 11.2 IP. Koehler is also having a lot of trouble keeping LH bats on the ground, as he owns just a 25.6 GB% against them so far this season. It doesn't appear that he's just been unlucky - he owns a .314 BABIP against LHBs with a putrid 29.3 Hd-Sft% - so pairing up a few of the Cardinals lefties seems like a nice pivot off of the more popular tournament targets of the night, namely the Brewers and Diamondbacks. Koehler hasn't been above average against RH bats either - his control has been notably better, but he's still giving up plenty of hard contact - so adding a few RHs into a Cardinals stack is certainly viable as well. Don't expect the Cardinals to be popular, but they definitely have some tournament appeal. Matt Carpenter, Kolten Wong, Randal Grichuk and Jedd Gyorko are the top potential plays on the STL side.

Tom Koehler did not give up a ton of hard contact, while striking out batters at nearly a league average rate last year, but had issues with free passes (10.7%). That's not the prototype of pitcher to either use or attack normally for DFS purposes, especially when his wOBA sits between .320 and .332 against batters from either side of the plate over the last two seasons. LHBs have made more hard contact though (33.4%), making Bryce Harper (118 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP last season) and Daniel Murphy (163 wRC+, .261 ISO) the most obvious candidates here, but perhaps Trea Turner (159 wRC+, .258 ISO) and Adam Eaton (119 wRC+, .166 ISO) are the more interesting targets as they're more likely to do more with a walk once they get on base, though it may not be an ideal combination to run on. Don't look for much in the way of salary relief here, but players should be able to afford bats today. On the other side, Gio Gonzalez needs to be considered by default on a pitching poor slate. While his strikeout rate (22.4%) and GB rate (47.6%) were at career rates, his walk rate was actually lower than average for the first time, though he had a 4.57 ERA due to a low strand rate and a career high 19 HRs. Somewhat of a bounce back is expected this season. Giancarlo Stanton (146 wRC+, .295 ISO, 55.9 Hard% vs LHP last year) and Marcell Ozuna (141 wRC+, .306 ISO, 49 Hard%) are nearly always strong considerations against non-elite LHPs. However, they were the only above average hitters in this lineup against southpaws last year.

Tom Koehler has a meager 16% k-rate over the last two weeks, coupled with a massive 48% hard contact rate. Koehler has surrendered xFIPs of 4.70 and 4.60 to LHBs and RHBs, respectively, meaning that all of the Nationals hitters in the lineup today are in play. Stephen Drew is an incredible option at the shortstop position today, seeing that Drew has hit the ball hard in 69% of at-bats that have ended in contact while only striking out 5% of the time. That is an elite combination that should lead to a productive Sunday for Stephen Drew.

Tom Koehler has been a little worse than average against both LHBs and RHBs, owning an xFIP of 4.48 and 4.69, respectively. The BvP truthers of the DFS world may not be concerned with this 4.48 xFIP figure and have done enough research to play Bryce Harper after seeing his career 1.441 OPS versus Koehler. Harper has 6 home runs in 29 at-bats and appears to fall in the sweet spot of sample size, having faced Koehler almost 30 times over the last few years. For the DFSers who vehemently hate BvP, you can still play Bryce Harper and just tell yourself it is because Harper is hitting the ball hard in 40% of at-bats that have ended in contact over the last seven days and he is facing an average pitcher.

Tom Koehler struck out just two Pirates in his last start, but his league average 9.5 SwStr% was his lowest in seven starts since the break. He’s gone at least six innings in each of his last six starts, walking more than one just once with an above average 15.7 K-BB% over that span. He gets the worst road offense in baseball tonight (78 wRC+), a lineup that never walks (5.9% on the road, 6.3% vs RHP) and has little power (9.1 HR/FB vs RHP). Koehler does have an 88.2 LOB% since the break too, but he's missing more bats, walking fewer batters and may have the best matchup on the board tonight for just over $7K. The Royals are projected for just 3.6 runs have just one batter has a wRC+ above 92 vs RHP this year in tonight's lineup.

Koehler has actually pitched respectably of late, but is still a mediocre pitcher (to put it nicely) with roughly league average hard contact (30.1%) and strikeout rates (19.5%) to left-handed batters while issuing a high number of walks (10.9% BB%). Brandon Belt (143 wRC+, .376 wOBA, .198 ISO) sports an impressive batting profile against right-handed pitching with strong plate skills, high hard contact, and line drives. Belt has also been heating up lately, posting a .413 wOBA and ,225 ISO over the last two weeks. Brandon Crawford (.181 ISO vs RHP) is the other lefty in the Giants order that we would want to primarily target in this matchup along with Belt. Hunter Pence and Buster Posey (.150 ISO vs RHP) both sacrifice the platoon advantage against Koehler but certainly have the upside to warrant consideration as one offs or inclusion in San Francisco stacks.

With just seven games on the slate tonight, it's difficult to consider punting entire matchups, but this is an ugly one. The Phillies have 64 wRC+ at home and a 35 team wRC+ since the break. They have just one real above average hitter against RHP this season in Odubel Herrera (129 wRC+ .162 ISO), but he's quite expensive on either site. Both RH and LH batters have a wOBA above .340 against Tom Koehler since last year. He has a total of eight strikeouts and has lasted just 16 innings over his last four starts. Perhaps Ryan Howard (55 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP this season) is worth praying for a HR for just $2.1K on FanDuel, but no other batter in the lineup tonight has a wRC+ above 50 since the break.

Tom Koehler is generating weaker contact than in previous years (23.6 Hard%), but his 5.3 HR/FB is well below his career rate, allowing him to maintain an ERA below four with estimators around five. A 12.9 BB% is a major culprit and won't mesh well with the Cubs 11.0 BB% vs RHP. Unfortunately, walks don't often get the job done in DFS, setting this up as a potential fade situation without Rizzo and Fowler. New leadoff man Jason Heyward has just a 76 wRC+ and .094 ISO vs RHP this season, while Ben Zobrist bats 3rd with a 28 wRC+ over the last week. Kris Bryant, batting 2nd tonight, is the top overall bat (138 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP career), but costs quite a bit with RHBs carrying just a .298 wOBA against Koehler since last season. Cleanup Catcher Willson Contreras (239 wRC+ in his first week in the majors) and Chris Coghlan behind him (104 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015, but just 49 wRC+ this year) are the likely value plays here for around $2.5K on either site.

Tom Koehler has walked at least four in six of 11 starts and exactly five in four straight starts before snapping that streak last time out. He has just a 16.7 K% and a 4.50 ERA with estimators a run higher. Lefties have a .341 wOBA (34 Hard%) against him since last season, making Robbie Grossman (128 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP since 2015) the bargain play of the night for the minimum on DraftKings. RHBs have hit him at an average clip as well (.309 wOBA), keeping average bats like Eduardo Nunez (124 wRC+ .134 vs RHP since 2015) in play, should you want to pay over $5K on DraftKings. Byung-Ho Park (107 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP) would be the only remaining bat with an ISO above .200 against righties this year (or last).