Tommy Fleetwood Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

It will be interesting to see if anyone talks up Fleetwood this week. He’s usually one of the most popular DFS targets in majors, but his recent form is nothing short of awful. The last two times we saw him on the PGA Tour, he lost 6.3 and 6.6 strokes on approach. It’s extremely hard to lose that many strokes to the field in one stat category, especially for a golfer that has long been known for his approach play. I do have good news for Tommy fans though, as he played in the Portugal Masters on the European Tour and led the field in strokes gained approach. Yes, it wasn’t the strongest field, but he just needed one good week with the irons to get that confidence back. We know he loves the U.S. Open and this is a rare opportunity to play him at low ownership.

Fleetwood hasn’t been great since the restart, but I’ll chalk that up to him shaking off the rust. He waited longer than most to tee it up and has only played in two events. He missed the cut at the 3M Open and finished T35 at the St. Jude Invitational last week. While the underlying statistics don’t jump off the page, he did gain at least one stroke tee to green in both events. Historically, he’s been a good total driver of the ball and one of the best iron players on tour. He tends to play difficult golf courses well and he’s priced at a steep discount thanks to his recent form (at least on DraftKings). He seemed to find something in his final round in Memphis and I expect him to keep it going this week in San Francisco.

This will be the pick that likely makes or breaks my week. There is no doubt that Fleetwood hasn’t been in the best of form over the last four months, at least when we have seen him play on the PGA Tour. However, I simply can’t get past the fact that this is a world class golfer who just went through a bit of a slump. He couldn’t make any putts last week and ended up just short of the cut line; it’s not like he played completely awful golf for two rounds. He still ranks 17th on the PGA Tour in ball striking and inside the top 50 in par four scoring. He did not quarantine for several weeks and come over to the United States just to miss cuts and not get any paychecks. I fully believe that his motivation and focus will kick in this week, and you’re going to get him at lower ownership in addition to the cheaper price. It’s risky, but it makes sense in multi-entry GPP settings.

Tommy Fleetwood has not played in the United States since golf started back up, and I wonder how that will eventually affect his ownership this week. I'm not concerned about a lack of form, as Fleetwood is as professional as they come and has surely kept himself fit during the layoff. We last saw him after an ugly missed cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational followed by an awful first round at THE PLAYERS before the rest of the tournament was wiped out. Perhaps the break did him some good in order for a rest and recharge period. Fleetwood is a class player, particularly in this field. In addition, all of the other top options have question marks. Dustin Johnson shot in the double digits over par last week. Brooks Koepka admitted that his knee is really bothering him right now. Paul Casey made an eight on a par three and missed the cut last week. Tony Finau shot an 80 on Sunday. This is going to be a wide open event, and Fleetwood is my favorite option at the top. He does not have enough rounds to qualify in a lot of statistical metrics this year, but he finished 13th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained from tee to green in the 2018-2019 season.

There are a lot of reasons to like Fleetwood this week, but let me start with the obvious reason people are overlooking him — he’s the most expensive golfer in the field. When the salaries were first released, I thought to myself that there’s no way I would target Fleetwood. It’s not the strongest field in the world, but he’s never won on the PGA Tour and the likes of Rickie Fowler, Brooks Koepka, and Gary Woodland are significantly cheaper. I certainly see the hesitation that most have when it comes to Fleetwood. However, I’m looking to avoid the super chalky golfers this week and the price on Fleetwood is helping to keep ownership down. When I ran my model, he was easily the top rated golfer (99.2) in the field and it wasn’t particularly close (Brooks Koepka was second at 93.2).

Fleetwood is one of the best tee-to-green golfers in the world, he’s been in elite form worldwide, and he’s first in this field in strokes gained total on Bermuda grass. He tends to play his best golf on difficult courses and PGA National certainly qualifies. He’s a good total driver of the ball, he’s very good with his long irons (very hit wedge opportunities this week), and he’s better around the greens than he gets credit for. He has only played this event one time, but finished in a tie for fourth back in 2018. He often gets labeled as a contender that can’t close the door, but he just won on the European Tour a couple months back. He checks every single box that I’m looking at this week, which can’t be said for Koepka, Fowler, and Woodland.

While Hideki and Fleetwood will both garner ownership, I doubt many lineups will feature both golfers. With no cut and a decent number of value golfers in play this week, I like the idea of taking two chances on golfers with winning upside in this field. Fleetwood is known more for his cut-making and top 10 finishes, but he's won plenty on the European Tour. He just hasn't been able to close the door on the PGA Tour. He finished in a tie for fifth at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and followed it up with a T20 at last week's CJ Cup. The latter may not seem great, but he ended the week fifth in greens in regulation with the ninth worst putts per green in regulation. In other words, the flatstick held him back from another top end finish. Putting is by far the most volatile stat week-to-week and it can flip on a dime. With this being a new course that's tree-lined with water hazards, bogey avoidance could be critical. In this field, only Rory McIlroy makes fewer bogeys.