Touki Toussaint Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

While there are legitimate caution flags for all three of tonight’s top pitchers, it’s not like you can skip all of them and grab one or two from the middle of the board tonight either because you’re not going to find another high upside arm on the board. Jose Suarez is actually experiencing a small velocity bump moving into the rotation. It hasn’t helped his strikeout rate over six starts (18.3%), but he does have an 11.8 SwStr% (at least 11% in five of six starts), while he’s kept more than half his contact on the ground 52.2% with just an 86.5 mph EV (6.6% Barrels/BBE), but he’s a lefty, facing the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. He costs just $6.8K on DraftKings though.

Touki Toussaint can be exciting because he misses bats (24.1 K% through five major league starts this year, 35.2% over 16.2 AAA innings) and is currently running the lowest walk rate he’s ever had at any professional level (7.8%). He does have some contact profile issues though. He’s allowed five home runs with a 92.4 mph EV, though just six barrels (8.0%). A 4.28 ERA somewhat middles contact neutral (4.08 SIERA, 4.19 xFIP) and including (4.39 xERA, 4.94 FIP) estimators. The Marlins have a 92 wRC+ vs RHP. Five of eight projected for Miami exceed a 26.5 K% vs RHP this year. This is probably where most people who don’t want to pay up will go. Toussaint costs less than $8.5K on either site.

While the 1.25 ERA Cal Quantrill has produced over his last six starts is unsustainable, there’s been real improvement in his profile with a 23.2 K%, 53.8 GB% and 82 mph EV. He’s allowed just one home runs, but not even a single barrel over this span (3.04 FIP, 4.02 xFIP). The projected Minnesota lineup includes four above a 29 K% vs RHP and Quantrill costs less than $8K on DraftKings.

That’s really it. Wade Miley is facing the Cubs with four above a 25 K% vs LHP in the projected lineup, though in small samples and in a dangerous park. Over his last four starts (23.1 IP), Miley has both walked and struck out 13 with just a 40.3 GB%. That may not be something you want to pay more than $8K for tonight. Carlos Hernandez has a 3.33 ERA through five starts, but with just an 11.6 K-BB%, 89.8 mph EV and .230 BABIP. Non-FIP estimators are about a run higher over this span and he faces the Astros. Your best bet is to pay up tonight because everything is high risk, but at least the top pitchers offer a substantial reward.

Touki Toussaint is a live and erratic arm. To illustrate, in 42.1 innings last year, he struck out 22.7% (11.8 SwStr%) with a 13.1 BB%. He’s cut down on those walks this year with three of his five walks coming in one start. He’s struck out 30.3% of the batters he’s faced, supported by a 14.2 SwStr%, yet he has an ERA above seven because three of his 12 fly balls have left the yard and he’s stranded fewer than half his runners (45.5%). There’s more than a three run gap between his ERA and all of his estimators, although he’ll have to clean up some of the hard contact (11.1% Barrels/BBE, 89.3 mph EV). The Nationals have just an 84 wRC+ and 11.5 HR/FB vs RHP this year. While the top half of the lineup contains competent bats against RHP, Juan Soto is really the only major threat and the bottom half contains plenty of upside for Toussaint in their strikeout rates. He’s held RHBs to a .288 wOBA since last season. While carrying some blow up risk, Toussaint’s $7.1K price tag on FanDuel with a highest strikeout rate on the board could potentially make him a top value on tonight’s slate.

Touki Toussaint is an exciting, but volatile young arm. For instance, in his first start, he walked three of 18 Mets, but escaped without a run and has a 13.5 BB% in 84 big league innings now. However, he struck out nine Blue Jays in his last start without a single walk. He has an impressive 35.1 K% and 16.1 SwStr% on the season, walking just four of the 57 batters he’s faced. A .345 BABIP predicated on an absurd 32.3 LD% has his ERA above six, more than double his estimators and Statcast certainly confirms some contact issues with 12.9% Barrels/BBE, though it hadn’t been much of a problem previously (7.8% career). The Yankee offense has a 28.9 HR/FB at home and 22.1 HR/FB vs RHP this year. They can compensate for the loss of Stanton by sliding the very capable Mike Tauchman in and still present an entire lineup of dangerous bats against RHP. Toussaint has a very large platoon split, which may help him here though. He’s held RHBs to a .287 wOBA/.302 xwOBA since last season, while LHBs are 152 and 70 points higher. Even with Tauchman, the majority of the lineup is expected to sway right-handed. While the quality start is in question, Toussaint is a very interesting, potentially low owned tournament arm with upside for just $7.4K on FanDuel.

Despite struggling over the weekend in Chicago (AL) and losing the DH in an NL park, the Red Sox still enjoy the afternoon's top run line at 4.73 runs in Atlanta. Touki Toussaint is a well regarded 22 year-old rookie (50 FV grade via Fangraphs), who allowed one run in six innings (four strikeouts) against the Marlins in his debut. He has a 19.5 K-BB% both in 16 AA starts and then eight more AAA starts this season. The Red Sox are still able to send five batters against him above a 115 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs RHP this season right out of the chute. The first four in the order all above a 135 wRC+. Mookie Betts (176 wRC+, .278 ISO) tops the lineup with a 261 wRC+ over the last week. A possible concern is that just one of five batted balls by RHBs were on the ground in Toussaint's start against Miami.