Travis d'Arnaud Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

It’s tough to imagine that a pitcher who’s worn out his welcome in San Francisco can succeed in Baltimore and while Tyler Blach has struck out 10 of his first 45 batters (Red Sox & Yankees too) for the Orioles, he’s also allowed 12 runs. To be honest, he’s faced strong offenses in all four his major league appearances this year, but even so, allowing 22 runs in 15.1 innings with just three more strikeouts than walks, is completely unacceptable for a major league pitcher. This, despite allowing just 5.2% Barrels/BBE. His AAA numbers aren’t much better with an ERA and estimators above five in over 90 innings. Over the last calendar year, batters from either side of the plate have hit him well (above a .325 wOBA and xwOBA) and the Rays get a nice park upgrade here against a pitching staff that has already owns the single season record for home runs allowed. Tommy Pham, destroyer of southpaws, (169 wRC+, .196 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) may be one of the top overall bats on the board tonight. Travis D’arnaud (123 wRC+, .271 ISO) costs less than $3K on Fanduel. Austin Meadows (101 wRC+, .228 ISO) merits serious consideration too despite the lefty on lefty matchup. The Rays are one of only two offenses above six implied runs tonight (6.26).

Jacob Waguespack has struck out just two in three of his four starts this season and only more than that against the Tigers. In five innings against the Rays two starts back, he allowed three runs with as many walks. Considering his underlying numbers, there should be some expectation for the Rays to do some damage tonight despite sitting in the middle of the board at 5.09 implied runs. Waguespack has the third worst Z-Contact on the board (90.5%) and is tied for the second highest aEV (90.2 mph). Hard contact and lots of it is essentially what players are looking for in a daily fantasy offense. Additionally, the rookie’s .414 xwOBA over his four starts is 54 points above his actual mark. However, Waguespack has shown such a substantial platoon split that despite the small sample, one would have to think there’s some legitimacy to it. Same-handed batters have a wOBA and xwOBA exceeding .400 with a 51.8 Hard% against him, while LHBs are below .300 with only half as much hard contact (26.3%). Looking at tonight’s projected Tampa Bay lineup, that puts Tommy Pham (133 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) in the best spot, but also makes Travis d’Arnaud (98 wRC+, .157 ISO) and the recently resurgent Jesus Aguliar (103 wRC+, .176 ISO) interesting bats as well here. Each exceed a 180 wRC+ over the last week, but Aguliar (292 wRC+, 75 Hard% last seven days) is within $400 of $3K on either site.

Charlie Morton and David Price are quality pitchers. They are both in the top five in strikeout rate on the board (Morton 31%, Price 28%) and also SIERA (3.51, 3.77), xwOBA (.264, .285) and aEV (86.6 mph, 87 mph) with Morton having a lead in each category, along with a 50.6 GB% and 29.4 Z-O-Swing%, but facing the more difficult offense (Red Sox 115 wRC+ & 11.1 K-BB% vs RHP, board high 153 wRC+ last seven days, Rays 94 wRC+ & 26.5 K% vs LHP). If this game were in Tampa, we might be settling in for a pitching duel, but it’s not. Kevin’s forecast specifically states “warm, humid, winds blowing out towards the monstah at 10 mph”, as if Fenway wasn’t enough of a danger to navigate already.

Boston bats rosterable under these conditions despite batters from either side of the plate owning a wOBA and xwOBA below .300 against Morton over the last calendar year. Sportsbooks tend to agree, gracing the Red Sox with an implied run line slightly above five. They’re not as optimistic about Tampa Bay at 4.39, as Price also has an xwOBA against batters from either side within three points of .290 over the same span. Travis D’arnaud (135 wRC+, .314 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) has been the most potent Tampa Bay bat among those projected tonight. Mookie Betts (149 wRC+, .235 ISO), Rafael Devers (153 wRC+, .285 ISO) and Xander Bogaerts (151 wRC+, .250 ISO) have been the most potent bats against RHP. Even under such conditions, it might be reasonable to expect daily fantasy players having a hesitancy to attacking Morton and Price here (premium players have access to Projected Ownership rates), therefore offering a potentially contrarian opportunity with bats in this game.

Despite a matchup in hitter-friendly Rogers Centre tonight versus an unproven pitcher in Jacob Waguespack, Rays bats are surprisingly affordable. Waguespack has been a mixed bag over his 19 MLB innings as he has a 5.68 ERA but a very solid 3.93 xFIP and 19.1% K-BB. He does also own a .350 xwOBA and 89.1 MPH aEV, so it’s not too surprising that his ERA is higher than his estimators. He projects as a roughly 5 ERA guy by most projection systems going forward. Nate Lowe (.397 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Austin Meadows (.386), Tommy Pham (.373), Travis d’Arnaud (.366 since joining TB), Avisail Garcia (.362) and Ji-Man Choi (.346) are all great options tonight. Choi is projected to leadoff and costs just $3.5k on Drafktings. Pham, Lowe and Garcia are all $4.1k or less and projected to bat 3-4-5- in the order. D’Arnaud and Meadows will cost $4.5k but are still very much in play. Nate Lowe has been the Rays’ hottest hitter with a .414 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by d’Arnaud with a .399 mark. The Rays currently have a 5.02 implied line vs. Waguespack and the Jays tonight.

Jacob Waguespack has a slightly below average K-BB% through 92 AAA innings over the last two seasons. The 25 year-old does have a 23.8 K% with a 4.8 BB% through 84 major league batters so far, facing Boston twice, Detroit and these Rays. A .382 BABIP and 65.9 LOB% has estimators well below his 5.68 ERA, but right in line with a 5.66 DRA and .350 xwOBA due to an 89.1 mph aEV (24.1 LD%). While the peripherals are great, they’re also necessary due to the nature of the contact he’s allowing and not really in line with what he’s done in the minors over the last year. The interesting thing in this small sample so far is that RHBs have an xwOBA over 200 points higher against Waguespack (.442 to .234) with similar actual results (.435 to .278). Some confirmation comes in terms of hard hit (48.7% to 9.5%) and ground ball rates (37.8% to 57.1%). That makes Tommy Pham the bat to own here. He has a 131 wRC+ and .219 ISO vs same-handed pitching over the last calendar year and costs a very reasonable $4.1K on DraftKings tonight. The Tampa Bay lineup is generally fairly liquid and tough to project, so keep an eye out for additional affordable RHBs who may appear towards the top of tonight’s lineup, like possible Travis D’arnaud (91 wRC+, .177 ISO) who has a 167 wRC+ and 54.6 Hard% over the last week and costs less than $3K on FanDuel. His .345 xwOBA against RHP over this span is also 39 points higher than his actual mark.

After trading Andrew Cashner, the Orioles called up Tom Eshleman to make his 2nd career start Sunday afternoon vs. the Rays. Eshelman had pretty mediocre numbers at every MiLB stop, and projects as anywhere from a 5.50-6.50 ERA pitcher by projection systems. The Rays have scored 30 runs in 3 games since the All-Star break and look to be in yet another good spot this afternoon vs. Eshelman and an Orioles bullpen that is already bad (4th worst 4.57 SIERA this year) and is worn down after being torched all weekend. Nate Lowe (.441 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Austin Meadows (.384), Tommy Pham (.382), Travis d’Arnaud (.354 since joining TB) and Ji-Man Choi (.350) are all great options. Kevin Kiermaier (.298) is batting 3rd and while he isn’t a good hitter, he’s been a stolen base threat with 17 now on the year. Michael Brosseau hit 2 homers last night and now has a 211 wRC+ in 36 PA this year; he costs just $3.2k on Draftkings and will bat 5th. Nate Lowe will cost just $3.6k on Draftkings and will bat 4th, while Ji-man Choi is also a nice bargain, costing $3.6k and batting 6th. The Rays currently have a 6.30 implied total this afternoon and project as one of the best PTS/$ stacks on the board on the early slate.