Trent Thornton Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Trent Thornton has pitched to a 3.86 ERA over the last month, but has had an unearned run scored against him in each of his last three starts and his estimators are still right around five, in line with his season ERA (5.23) and estimators. In fact, his .336 xwOBA over the last 30 days is exactly the same as his season mark. His last two starts against the Red Sox have resulted in 12 ERs over just four innings, striking out a single one of the 32 batters he’s faced. This seems a get right spot for a Boston offense with a 66 wRC+ over the last seven days. Their 5.63 implied run line is fifth best on the board tonight, despite the expected absence of Mookie Betts. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Thornton this year with the latter showing no split at all (one point difference). Andrew Benintendi (106 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP) is projected to lead off at a reasonable cost on either site ($4K DK, $3K FD), but if Jackie Bradley Jr. (97 wRC+, .226 ISO) gets that spot, he could be even more interesting. He has the highest wRC+ of all projected Boston batters over the last seven days (150). Rafael Devers (149 wRC+, .279 ISO), Xander Bogaerts (149 wRC+, .254 ISO) and Mitch Moreland (128 wRC+, .286 ISO) are the only other expected starters above a .200 ISO against RHP this year. J.D. Martinez has been a rather average bat against same-handed pitching this year (108 wRC+, .192 ISO).

Batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 wOBA and .331 xwOBA against Trent Thornton, whose strikeout rate is down to 18.9% over the last month. Over his last 15 innings, opponents have scored 11 runs on four HRs. For the season his ERA and most estimators are around five with a 7.68 DRA that’s two full runs higher. Though he gets a park upgrade tonight, it’s not an easy spot against the Rays, who are implied for 5.36 runs, the third best total on the board. Joey Wendle (84 wRC+, .131 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) becomes the plug and play value bat tonight, as he finds himself leading off at a very low price on either site. Should he reach base, Austin Meadows (144 wRC+, .263 ISO), Tommy Pham (127 wRC+, .218 ISO), and Ji-Man Choi (124 wRC+, .196 ISO) all have been swinging hot bats and will looking to drive him in.

So far in 2019 Trent Thornton has posted a 5.55 ERA with a 5.11 xFIP, 4.99 SIERA, 11.9% K-BB, 41% FB rate, 1.57 HR/9 and a 10% SwStr. Per Statcast, he’s allowed a .337 xwOBA with a 7.7% barrel rate and 88 MPH aEV. Not completely terrible stats, but certainly no match for a Yankees lineup that was already firing on all cylinders (143 wRC+ over the past 14 days) and has now returned Gary Sanchez to the lineup. Gio Urshela (.395 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Aaron Judge (.394), Gary Sanchez (.379), DJ Lemahieu (.363), Gleyber Torres (.340) and Brett Gardner (.321) are all great options in the Yankee lineup this afternoon. Urshela has been scorching hot over the past 2 weeks with a .568 xwOBA; Austin Romine (.450), DJ LeMahieu (.444) and Mike Tauchman (.396) have also swung the bat very well of late. Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres are both great values at a price of just $4.4k on Draftkings. Gary Sanchez and Brett Gardner are available under $5k on DK as well, while Austin Romine is just $3.9k. The Yankees currently have a 6.28 implied total; they could be chalky on this slate but are a good play in both cash and GPPS nonetheless.

Trent Thornton has started against Boston twice over the last month. He was slammed against them at home (2.2 IP – 7 R – 1 K), after pitching well against them in Boston (6.1 IP – 2 R – 7 K). While he owns an above average strikeout rate (23.2%), the rookie has walked 9.8% of batters with a staggering 31 LD% despite a 30.9 Z-O-Swing% that’s second best on the board. His 4.75 ERA is in line with most estimators, though his 7.00 DRA is third worst on the board. A .323 xwOBA over the last month that’s 36 points below his actual mark suggests there’s been some bad luck in his 5.04 ERA over that span, but this is the third time the Red Sox will be seeing him in five starts, which generally works in the offense’s favor. That that offense is the Red Sox (113 wRC+, 11 K-BB% vs RHP) at Fenway, is even more concerning. Although Thornton owns a 28 point split by wOBA this season, batters from either side of the plate are within a point of .327 by xwOBA, dissolving any platoon issues, but also playing more in favor of Red Sox bats, who are predominantly right-handed towards the top of the lineup anyway. Xander Bogaerts (137 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has homered in all three games since the break. Ideally, players would be able to stack a top four that also should include Mookie Betts (146 wRC+, .232 ISO), Rafael Devers (142 wRC+, .257 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (130 wRC+, .214 ISO), all elite bats against RHP over the last year. The Red Sox own a 6.1 implied run line that’s second best outside Coors tonight.

Although he’ll be pitching in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, Thornton has an otherwise decent matchup tonight. The Padres have just an 83 wRC+ and an ugly 27.1% K rate vs. RHP on the year. The Padres have just two batters (Franmil Reyes, Eric Hosmer) in their projected lineup who have an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .315 so far in 2019. Thornton hasn’t been all that effective this year with a 4.41 ERA / 4.35 xFIP / 4.49 SIERA. He does have some positives though: a 24.3% K rate, a 17.2% hard-soft, and just a .295 xwOBA allowed over the past 3 weeks. Thornton has also been much better on the year vs. RHB (.290 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB, .356 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB) and is projected to face just 4 lefties in the Padres’ order tonight. Thornton is just $7.6k on Draftkings and $7.1k on Fanduel despite the nice matchup with K upside. The Padres have a 4.39 implied line tonight vs. Thornton.

With a fairly substantial amount of evidence that balls are juiced again in 2019, it makes sense to go after pitchers who struggle to keep the ball out of the air. Trent Thornton fits that profile with just a 31.3% GB rate. He is also giving up plenty of loud contact with a 46.3 hard% and just a 17.9 soft% with a 92.2% aEV. Thornton has done a decent job missing bats with a 10 K/9 so far, but he never showed that kind of K rate in the minors and most projection systems have him more in the 7-9 K/9 range. Thornton gets a tough matchup vs. the A’s in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre this afternoon. Khris Davis (.378 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Matt Chapman (.365), Ramon Laureano (.348), Chad Pinder (.345), Stephen Piscotty (.344) and Mark Canha (.335) have all hit RHP very well. Robbie Grossman (.304) bats 2nd and is a nice value at just $3.9k. Matt Chapman has by far the highest exit velo and average batted ball distance on the A’s over the last 10 days and might be the best bet in the A’s lineup to leave the yard with Khris Davis’ enduring a small slump (.217 xwOBA over last 10 days).

Players looking for some cheap bats may want to turn their eyes towards Toronto this evening. After a hot start, Trent Thornton has struggled against some of the better offenses he’s faced recently. San Francisco is not one of those, but there are some alarming trends in his profile, including a 90.5 Z-Contact% that’s worst on the board. He’s allowed a 29.4 LD%, 19 HR/FB, 92.3 mph aEV and 15.7% Barrels/BBE. He’s had particular problems with LHBs (.414 wOBA, 52 Hard%, 32 GB%). Brandon Belt (114 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has been “freed” from a terrible park in San Francisco tonight with a strong park upgrade here. Pablo Sandoval (121 wRC+, .198 ISO) has shown surprising competency from the left side of the plate over the last year. Even Steven Duggar (75 wRC+, .164 ISO) and Gerardo Parra (101 wRC+, .106 ISO) may have some value here at low cost atop the lineup. Implied for just over four runs, Giants’ bats are not projected to be particularly popular tonight and could provide a path to some of the more expensive bats in better projected offenses tonight.

Although tonight’s top pitchers are clearly Carlos Carrasco (@ Kansas City) and Patrick Corbin (vs Pittsburgh), several of the top pitching prospects in baseball are on display Friday night. Chris Paddack, Corbin Burnes, and Kyle Wright were all ranked between 30th and 40th on Fangraphs’ Top Prospects list this season. Each has fast-tracked their way through their respective organizations, but each has shown marginal results through a couple of outings this season and they may all be working with workload constraints tonight.

Paddock, the most expensive, has struck out one-third of the batters he’s faced, but with an 8.3 SwStr%. However, opponents have just an 81.8 Z-Contact% and haven’t barreled a ball yet (83.8 mph aEV). Burnes has been missing bats (39.1 K%, 16.7 SwStr%), but has allowed three HRs in each start (yes, six HRs over two starts, 25% Barrels/BBE) and faces the Dodgers (137 wRC+, 15.3 K%, 17.3 HR/FB vs RHP). Wright’s 52.2 Z-O-Contact% is worst on the board and he’s been hit failry hard too, as the three HRs and a .417 xwOBA would confirm.

The most interesting pitching prospect on the board may the most unheralded one. Trent Thornton brought no fanfare, but he did have a 17.6 K-BB% at AAA last year and has struck out 15 of 38 batters through two starts. A 12.6 SwStr% does not entirely support that rate, but it’s still above average. One small matter of concern is a 91.1 Z-Contact%. He has a slightly unfavorable matchup with the Rays at a reasonable price.