Trevor Larnach Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Pitching is deep and expensive tonight. It’s also high risk and fairly cheap. This is a slate with tons of possibilities. Players may need lots of value bats or they may not or maybe some combination of in between. The first place projections suggest they look is in Minnesota, where the Twins are facing Beau Brieske with a 4.65 run team total. Brieske seems the most obvious candidate to exit the rotation once some people start getting healthy. He’s produced just a 13.2 K% (6.4 SwStr%) through five starts, while also allowed 10 barrels (11.4%). A 5.13 ERA is more than a quarter run below all of his estimators (.210 BABIP). He has a massive reverse-split with RHBs over 100 points better against him, in fact, above .400 by wOBA and xwOBA. Nick Gordon (84 wRC+, .129 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Trevor Larnach (101 wRC+, .130 ISO) are both top of the board point per dollar projected values on either site, despite both batting from the LH side and near the bottom of the order because neither costs more than $2.3K on either site, making for an easier wrap around stack including Byron Buxton (153 wRC+, .342 ISO).

While the Twins are the only offense with multiple top 10 value bats, the great news is that several top offenses feature multiple top 10 projected values on one site or the other. On FanDuel, Pavin Smith (108 wRC+, .167 ISO vs RHP since LY) is projected to bat second against Jon Heasley (small sample .357 xwOBA for RHBs). Jake McCarthy (65 wRC+) should be a bit lower, but both cost $2.3K or less. Yankee stacks against Bruce Zimmermann (batters from either side of the plate at least a .340 wOBA and xwOBA since last year) become a much easier fit with Gleyber Torres (122 wRC+, .177 ISO vs LHP since last season) and Aaron Hicks (122 wRC+, .210 ISO) for less than $3K behind Judge and Stanton.

DraftKings players can wrap around Luis Rengifo (62 wRC+ vs RHP since LY) and Andrew Velasquez (68 wRC+) at near minimum cost with Ohtani and Trout against Dane Dunning (batters from either side of the plate between a .322 to .342 wOBA and xwOBA since last year). The Mariners are another interesting and cheap lineup with the expected returns of Kyle Lewis (115 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Taylor Trammell (100 wRC+, .245 ISO) against James Kaprielian (LHBs .360 wOBA, .376 xwOBA since LY, RHBs below .280 though). No LH Seattle projected starter costs more than $4.1K on DraftKings or even reach $3K on FanDuel tonight.

A top pitching prospect, Matt Manning wasn’t exactly dominating AAA with a 25 K% through seven starts before being called up, but an 18.1 K-BB% was more than respectable. We can’t say nearly the same about his major league work, as he’s struck out just six of 81 (4.5 SwStr%) with five walks and three home runs. Despite a 91.3 mph EV and league average 44.9 GB%, he’s generated just 4.3% Barrels/BBE, though estimators mostly in the upper fives are still below his 7.94 ERA. Batters from either side of the plate have smashed him above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA so far, the potential beneficiaries of these events tonight being the Minnesota Twins, who have the highest implied run line on the board at 5.85. Finding two of the potential top values on the slate in the top projected offense is a bit of a surprise, but Luis Arraez (119 wRC+ vs RHP since 2020) and Trevor Larnach (145 wRC+, .197 ISO) both cost less than $3.5K on DraftKIngs and $2.6K or less on FanDuel, making it very easy to stack the top offense on the board, add some high upside pitching and still have plenty left over for a secondary stack.

We’re generally able to find a lot of low priced hitters towards the back of many lineups and occasionally towards the top of the lineup and underpriced when they’re part of a platoon. Daily fantasy players generally don’t find near minimum priced hitters performing well in the top half of the lineup, but that’s what we’re projected to see today in Minnesota. Trevor Larnach costs $2.4K on FanDuel and is even cheaper on DraftKings and while his 125 wRC+ vs RHP comes with just a .125 ISO and .357 BABIP, Statcast does confirm his success with a .385 xwOBA. That’s not a guarantee he’ll continue at this pace, but for this price, how much do you really need? Michael King will be the opposing pitcher and in a sample of 57 innings since last year, batters from either side of the plate exceed a .320 wOBA & xwOBA against him, but LHBs have a .376 xwOBA. Unfortunately, Larnach has been the only above average LHB projected in this lineup, but Alex Krilloff (91 wRC+, .177 ISO) and Jorge Polanco (84 wRC+, .131 ISO) may be viable as well with decent lineup soots. The Twins are one of two teams above five implied runs tonight (5.11), the other being the Yankees against J.A. Happ.